Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[StoneRoad]

What is it with that prick johnson, can't stop touching people. Elbow bumps are low risk, I'm sure, but ffs, leave alone!

Not to mention all that travelling ...

Really, was it essential that he went to Scotland and Teesside in the past few weeks ?

[ I have two, no three, trips I need to make in connection with projects my little company has underway - plus one of them has to be rebuilt on site - but I'm being forced to wait and to not make those journeys because travelling the length and breadth of the country is not a good idea.
Actually, I'm waiting until three or four weeks after my second vaccination ... not that I've had the first one, yet.]

 

[Wilf]

... rant continues: johnson's own personal conduct has been astonishing at times throughout the pandemic. Right through from an early speech saying 'we won't be biffed off course by corona virus' type stuff; bragging about shaking hands in a hospital; various downing street superspreader events; his non-essential visit to Scotland and the seeming skin to skin fetish he has when he encounters a member of the public. Silly cunt.

 

[killer b]

Politically the tories have probably gotten away with their pandemic mismanagement so long as the overall vaccine-based approach does not fail. People will be overjoyed to gradually return to normality.

Agree with this - incredible really, but there it is.

 

[Wilf]

Yep, amid the carnage that's been done, there will be a point when the economy opens up, companies start hiring again and collective relief will be the dominant emotion. A kind of doublethink of knowing about the murderous mismanagement that the tories have practised throughout, whilst 'looking to the future'. I feel astonished that I can make this prediction, but I can see the tories getting 10% opinion poll leads in June/JUly.

 

[teuchter]

It'll have functioned as a pretty handy cover-over of the Brexit mess too.

 

[killer b]

Yep, amid the carnage that's been done, there will be a point when the economy opens up, companies start hiring again and collective relief will be the dominant emotion. A kind of doublethink of knowing about the murderous mismanagement that the tories have practised throughout, whilst 'looking to the future'. I feel astonished that I can make this prediction, but I can see the tories getting 10% opinion poll leads in June/JUly.

I don't think I can see that kind of lead - seems to me that outside of moments of national crisis the more-or-less level pegging is baked in for the foreseeable though.

 

[Wilf]

I don't think I can see that kind of lead - seems to me that outside of moments of national crisis the more-or-less level pegging is baked in for the foreseeable though.

Well, we'll see I suppose. Maybe 10% is pushing it, but they've averaged something like a 3% lead throughout 2021. I can see a temporary boost to that in the middle of the year if things go as planned with regard to vaccines and back to school. After that, perhaps back to smaller tory leads, who knows?

Question is really whether Labour can find something to say, something akin to the way they shaped the idea of postwar reconstruction as they came in to the 1945 election. Short answer: No.

 

[two sheds]

Tory press will get behind them again, will be unpatriotic to talk down the government and economy.

 

[killer b]

Well, we'll see I suppose. Maybe 10% is pushing it, but they've averaged something like a 3% lead throughout 2021. I can see a temporary boost to that in the middle of the year if things go as planned with regard to vaccines and back to school. After that, perhaps back to smaller tory leads, who knows?

Question is really whether Labour can find something to say, something akin to the way they shaped the idea of postwar reconstruction as they came in to the 1945 election. Short answer: No.

As it happens I was reading this piece from last year about Starmer's head of policy, which should give some insight into current policy directions. I'm not particularly encouraged.

 

[Wilf]

As it happens I was reading this piece from last year about Starmer's head of policy, which should give some insight into current policy directions. I'm not particularly encouraged.

Ta for the link. I'm always a bit wary when people detect a 'new' working class. Even more so if they remain 'new' and not part of the 'the' working class. And even more wary if the author then thinks that 'values' are the way forward. We've had versions of 'values' from Kinnock onwards.

I've just been reading this by Evans and Tilley. They manage to ship the new occupations off entirely, to become the 'new middle class':
The new class war: Excluding the working class in 21st-century Britain | IPPR

 

[cupid_stunt]

Today's update -

First dose vaccinations now just over 15m

New cases - 10,972, overall a drop of 28.1% in the last week.

New deaths - 258, which is down 115 on last Sunday's 373, that brings the 7-day average down to around 672 a day, a drop of 25.1% in the last week.

Today's update -

First dose vaccinations now 15.3m

New cases - 9,765, overall a drop of 29% in the last week.

New deaths - 230, which is down 103 on last Monday's 333, that brings the 7-day average down to around 656 a day, a drop of 26.2% in the last week.

 

[Wilf]

Today's update -

First dose vaccinations now 15.3m

New cases - 9,765, overall a drop of 29% in the last week.

New deaths - 230, which is down 103 on last Monday's 333, that brings the 7-day average down to around 656 a day, a drop of 26.2% in the last week.

That's all positive, of course, but you can just imagine the tory recovery group and the daily mail crunching those numbers and coming up with the answer: OPEN THE SHOPS!

 

[elbows]

In the press conference I see Johnson has used 'irreversible' again, but in the context of wanting the progress to be irreversible.

 

[StoneRoad]

The CRG can go f**uuu*k itself, as can any of the anti-vaxx & anti-lockdown brigades.

The current case & death rates are nowhere near low enough, even with the tremendous efforts being made with vaccinations, to have reduced the pressures on the NHS back to manageable levels.

Much as I want to get back to something approaching normality, I know that I can't, not yet.

 

[Wilf]

The CRG can go f**uuu*k itself, as can any of the anti-vaxx & anti-lockdown brigades.

The current case & death rates are nowhere near low enough, even with the tremendous efforts being made with vaccinations, to have reduced the pressures on the NHS back to manageable levels.

Much as I want to get back to something approaching normality, I know that I can't, not yet.

... and to all the people going 'look, look, the cases are really low, open everything up'... wonder why that is then?

 

[editor]

So Wales is far enough down the line that the 60-65 age group is being vaccinated now.

 

[teqniq]

I had my first jab two weekends ago, but it was organised by out HR department (support worker).

 

[elbows]

... and to all the people going 'look, look, the cases are really low, open everything up'... wonder why that is then?

Anyone saying that so far also has the wrong sense of what level of infection would count as 'really low'.

Meanwhile todays press conference was titled 'how do you say Tocilizumab?'.

 

[editor]

Here's how we're doing compared to other countries



That immense drop from France is impressive. We're about the same level as Italy now.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[editor]

Let's hope people never forget how useless this government has been

 

[killer b]

Let's hope people never forget how useless this government has been

it's already forgotten

 

[editor]

it's already forgotten

Sadly true, thanks in no part to that fucking useless clown Starmer.

 

[maomao]

it's already forgotten

That's not true. It was never acknowledged in the first place.

 

[killer b]

Some polling here - actually is hasn't been forgotten, but it has been forgiven it seems. The figures suggest it's widely recognised the pandemic had been handled disastrously, but Johnson's still the man to get us to the other side.

Strong approval for government's vaccine programme as Johnson preferred to lead pandemic response

Almost nine in ten (86%) think the Government is doing a good job obtaining vaccines for Britain, including 84% of Labour voters.

www.ipsos.com

 

[ska invita]

If mutations close the vaccine escape route then the let off may not be as kind as it is now.

Still opportunities for them to fuck it all up further

 

[elbows]

That immense drop from France is impressive. We're about the same level as Italy now.

It doesnt look genuine, it looks like an artifact of testing/data.

That same site allows a different interval to be selected so I can see the numbers per day rather than 8 day averages. Zooming in on a recent period, it looks like the low number for France has been driven by three days in a row of abnormally low numbers, as opposed to isolated low numbers every so many days that we are more used to seeing in their data. Beyond this exercise I have not looked into it.

 

[killer b]

If mutations close the vaccine escape route then the let off may not be as kind as it is now.

Still opportunities for them to fuck it all up further

I'm not sure new mutations would hit the government ratings tbh - the kent variant meant the christmas fuck up - and everything since - has been much easier on them than it could have been IMO. They fairly successfully argued that it was an unexpected twist that they couldn't possibly have expected to happen (it wasn't, but that doesn't matter).

On the talking politics podcast this week there was some reference to some focus group piece in The Times where consensus was that while it's gone really badly, they didn't think anyone else could have done better - it's not a view that's borne out very well by the facts, but again - that's never really been an issue in the past.

 

[ska invita]

while it's gone really badly, they didn't think anyone else could have done better

totally. but i also think patience is running out, and there is a limit to that attitude. My point is its not inconceivable that Covid could still run rampant again in a new mutation and we go round again, lockdown and everything. "They're doing their best" , "they couldn't know about mutations" may hold now, but might not next time, if there is another next time that is.

 

[agricola]

So Wales is far enough down the line that the 60-65 age group is being vaccinated now.

my mum and dad (both in their early seventies) have both had their first jab, and my godmother has had her second (the vaccination centre had some left over and rang around local NHS facilities telling them to get people to come down if they'd had the first the requisite amount of time ago)

 

[agricola]

Some polling here - actually is hasn't been forgotten, but it has been forgiven it seems. The figures suggest it's widely recognised the pandemic had been handled disastrously, but Johnson's still the man to get us to the other side.

Strong approval for government's vaccine programme as Johnson preferred to lead pandemic response

Almost nine in ten (86%) think the Government is doing a good job obtaining vaccines for Britain, including 84% of Labour voters.

www.ipsos.com

TBF given how that whole issue has been reported in the media, why is anyone surprised?