Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Er bollocks. You're arguing for autarky in food production which has never been realistic. There's been a great quick change after ww2 - surely any change will take max the same amount of time. The top 10 countries Britain imports from are the USA and countries in Western Europe. I don't know why, given this, you think a great change in the UK is going to change that.It wasn't that quick - we only started adapting the haber process to make synthetic fert in any volume post ww2 - the horse was still more common than the tractor in 1945. The transition took place 1945 to the 60s (possibly later) in the UK.
The transition has to be slow because:
- We are now attempting to feed millions more people than we were in 1945
- Any "wobbles" will lead to huge rises in the cost of food, post harvest 2023 is going to be interesting because the price of synthetic fert was so high that farmers used less, which will mean significantly reduced yields.
- Importing masses of our food just passes our issues onto the developing world - we can't just accept yield loss for environmental reasons and just import more food from there, that has really poor outcomes for people and environment in those places.
- Agriculture has long lead in times
- Asset Fixity theory
- We need to develop viable ways of doing things like controlling crop pests without chemicals. Plenty of advances coming along, but tech isn't there yet.