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burma - potential uprising?

from the guardian ...

Amid such carnage, political concerns must come second
Junta-ruled Burma is a dilemma for aid agencies. But in the wake of such a devastating cyclone, they must act fast to save lives
Conor Foley The Guardian, Wednesday May 7 2008
Article history
About this articleClose This article appeared in the Guardian on Wednesday May 07 2008 on p30 of the Comment & debate section. It was last updated at 09:27 on May 07 2008. Even before the devastating cyclone hit Burma at the weekend, the country was in desperate need of help. The government now says 22,000 people have died and 41,000 are missing, figures far higher than it originally admitted. The biggest problem will be obtaining access to affected areas. Burma's government has long been suspicious of international aid agencies, and although it has accepted help from UN agencies already working there, their activities are tightly controlled.

Burma only receives around $3 per capita of international aid, far less than its neighbours: Vietnam receives $33 per capita, Cambodia $47 and Laos $63. This is a result of the international sanctions in place since the mid-90s. Some humanitarian agencies, such as Médecins Sans Frontières, have left the country, while the Red Cross has suspended its programmes due to government restrictions.

Burma used to be one of the largest rice exporters in the world, but decades of conflict and economic mismanagement by its reclusive military junta have pushed much of its population to the brink of starvation. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), one of the few international agencies allowed to operate in the country, 10% of the population does not receive enough food to meet its basic daily needs, and 30% lives under the absolute poverty line. This figure climbs to 70% in many rural areas.

It is extremely difficult for agencies to obtain permission to begin operations. Those allowed to do so must accept restrictions as to where they can work and have to submit their assessments, surveys and reports for clearance by the authorities. During the uprisings last autumn, the UN country team issued a statement highlighting the difficulties faced by the population daily. Although it drew exclusively on government statistics, this brought a furious rebuttal from the regime. It expelled the UN humanitarian coordinator and has since carried out a bureaucratic harassment of aid workers - delaying visa applications or refusing accreditation.

Countries such as Burma and North Korea, where the WFP also has a large programme, pose a real dilemma for humanitarian agencies about how far they should be prepared to accept such restrictions in the interests of the people they are trying to help. When Afghanistan was ruled by the Taliban, some humanitarian agencies, such as Oxfam, suspended their programmes rather than comply with the Taliban's anti-women edicts. Oxfam eventually concluded this had been a mistake that had caused greater suffering to ordinary Afghans, but there clearly is a tension of conflicting principles in such situations.

A couple of years ago I spent a week on the Burmese-Thai border talking to opposition activists about the human rights and humanitarian situation there. Most felt that the presence of the international community had helped provide cover for the development of Burmese civil society, although clearly there is a dilemma as to how much "constructive engagement" merely legitimises the regime. During a humanitarian crisis, however, such calculations need to be set to one side, since the imperative is to provide people with life-saving help.

Aid agencies estimate that about a million people may be without shelter after the cyclone tore away their homes, and whole villages have simply vanished in the floods. The problem with mounting humanitarian operations during complex emergencies such as this is that it is very difficult to separate the effects of conflict, natural disaster and the overall political situation. This has blurred the distinction between development and humanitarian aid, because countries like Burma are now in chronic crises in which the man-made disasters weaken their capacity to deal with natural ones.

Burma has experienced several decades of conflict, and there has been a number of ethnically based insurgencies, which the regime has dealt with through coercion and cooption. This has led to the creation of military fiefdoms which in effect ruled by former warlords. Even when humanitarian agencies have obtained central government permission to operate in a particular area, they often have to negotiate it again at a local level.

The opium trade has done much to fuel the conflicts, and both warlords and the army are accused of conscripting labour and levying taxes. This creates a further dilemma for humanitarian agencies, whose staff often witness such violations. Ignoring them might be seen as tantamount to condoning them, but speaking out could bring loss of access.

In practice, most agencies tend to opt for private advocacy with the authorities and a continual reassessment of the costs and benefits of their presence. Some have argued that aid should be made conditional on the government agreeing to meaningful political reform and dialogue with the pro-democracy movement. But if the government rejects this, then refusing aid will simply increase the suffering of the poorest and most vulnerable people.

As one UN official told me recently: "We simply cannot delay providing assistance until a viable political situation evolves. The human costs for the Burmese people will be too high."

· Conor Foley is a humanitarian aid worker and a research fellow, Human Rights Law Centre at the University of Nottingham [email protected]
 
Ballot for a tyrant
The Burmese need food, shelter and freedom, but the generals only care about their own power
Aung Zaw The Guardian, Monday May 12 2008
Article history
About this articleClose This article appeared in the Guardian on Monday May 12 2008 on p26 of the Comment & debate section. It was last updated at 00:05 on May 12 2008. It is over a week since Cyclone Nargis brought devastation to Burma, and its people are in mourning - although there has been no official condolence from the ruling junta. Now, everyone is pointing the finger at Senior General Than Shwe, his ministers and army leaders - first, for failing to issue advanced warning of the cyclone to those living in the Irrawaddy delta region, and second, for responding so slowly to the devastation.

Most shocking, the regime stalled aid packages coming into the country and delayed issuing visas to international aid and medical workers. While the rest of the world has been eager to help, Burma's generals are only interested in consolidating their power.

And so, only a week after tens of thousands were killed, while 1.5 million remain hungry and homeless, the regime went ahead with its planned referendum to approve a new constitution at the weekend. It is the first vote in the country since 1990, when the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy won a landslide victory, which the military ignored. The regime insists that the new constitution will pave the way for democratic elections in two years' time.

But critics and international observers have dismissed the referendum as nothing more than a political ruse to legitimise the military's grip on power. They note that the proposed constitution reserves a hefty chunk of parliamentary seats for the army and junta supporters, and effectively bars opposition leaders - including Suu Kyi - from holding office.

On Saturday, exactly a week after the deadly storm, Than Shwe came out to vote accompanied by his wife - the couple had not been seen in public since the cyclone - defying the opinion of the international community as well as his own citizens. Clearly, the regime is manipulating a positive result. Many voters spoke of being handed ballot papers that had already been filled in with a tick, indicating approval of the draft constitution. They also complained that the referendum was not free and fair, saying they were watched closely by officials as they cast their ballots, and in some cases were advised how to vote.

A few days ago, the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, expressed his concern about the welfare of the people of Burma and suggested that it would be more prudent to focus on relief efforts. Now, a population that has suffered under a dictatorship for decades must face both this natural disaster and Than Shwe's scheme to prolong his rule.

The deeply superstitious Burmese people believe that the cyclone was divine intervention to disrupt the referendum and undermine the stability of the regime. Certainly, the heavens opened and the winds lashed the country - but the generals appear to have escaped. However, divine intervention or otherwise, the cyclone has changed the country's political dynamics and disrupted the regime's constitutional process. It has revealed Than Shwe and his regime's true colours to the world.

The current calamity is unsustainable. Political unrest and growing calls for humanitarian intervention will continue to haunt Burma's incompetent military leaders. It maybe wishful thinking to suggest that Than Shwe's days are numbered, but it is a hope widely shared among the victims of cyclone. His regime will not remain in power forever but people are paying a high price. The Burmese do not want ballot papers but food, shelter and freedom from the tyrant.

· Aung Zaw is an exiled Burmese political activist and editor of the Irrawaddy news magazine, an independent monthly based in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand irrawaddy.org
 
I'd love to think this cyclone has precipitated a chain of events that'll see the junta ousted, but we've all heard it so many times. The rumours of splits and shifting allegiances within the regime are quite natural when you have a 'government' that are so secretive - everything they do is a sign to be interpreted. No doubt there'll be plenty of disagreement behind the scenes on how the cyclone should be handled, but with Than Shwe, Aung Thaung, and chums pursuing a hardline not too dissimilar to other softer generals, there doesn't seem to be any logic behind a rebellion. Having said that, the scale of the tragedy and its non-political nature means that this instance of brutal indifference to 'their' people will touch milions more than last September's crackdown. What will come of it? I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for any change.
 
Surprise!!

Voters unanimously endorse a move to a 'disciplined democracy'!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7402105.stm

Turnout: 99%

Yes votes: 92.4%

_44657903_vote_than_afp226bod.jpg

Cunt
 
So, three weeks, 100,000 deaths and a shitload of incalculable suffering later, has Ban Ki Moon managaed to work some magic?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7416143.stm

I'll believe it when I see it. I don't expect many restrictions on aid workers to be lifted. Look at how they laughed at Gambari's reminders of the pledges they made after last September. However, if / when the promise is broken maybe Than Shwe's gone a step too far in thinking he can lie to to the UN Sec Gen without any significant repercussions.

Maybe this move is in the hope to win the hearts of international donors and get their hands on the $11 billion they're after. $11 billion in the hands of the second most corrupt country in the world. Could the money come with enough oversight and conditions attached that the government is slowly purged of corruption?

An international donors meeting in dear little Yangon on Sunday (the same day that Aung San Suu Kyi's current period of house arrest is due to end). I can hardly believe it. Far far too late though, and the only credible solution to Burma's plight - to wipe the junta off the face of the earth - is still nowhere to be seen.
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7427989.stm

Junta scum at it again :mad:

bbc said:
A senior UN official has said that any coercion of Burmese cyclone victims to return home is completely unacceptable.

Terje Skavdal's remarks follow reports that Burma's military government had begun to evict homeless families from some government-run emergency camps.

It has given them bamboo poles and tarpaulins and told them to go and rebuild their lives, say reports.
 
Burma letting all UN visas go through now apparently.

frogwoman said:
Junta scum at it again :mad:

This combination is what they were afraid of I think. Their behaviour is typical, eh - but the difference this time is that there's a team on the ground that can speak out against such decisions without fear of being chucked into prison and tortured.

Great advice from the New Light of Myanmar to cyclone victims recently:

Astonishingly, the paper went on to claim that victims of the cyclone didn’t really need that much help, thanks to the natural abundance of the delta region.

It said that temporarily, people in the Irrawaddy delta might need energy biscuits and instant noodles. But there was no danger of a food shortage in the delta, as long as people were willing to go out and look for it.

If farmers put nets in the rivers and creeks, they will have protein-rich fish to eat, the paper declared. Fresh vegetables, mushrooms, water clover and sensitive plants (Mimosa pudica) are also readily available and delicious with fish paste. Farmers will not only be able to satisfy their appetites, but also enjoy a healthy diet.

As a further piece of advice, the paper suggested that farmers go out with lamps at night and catch plump frogs as they come out in the monsoon season.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/opinion_story.php?art_id=12368
 
John Pilger article on Burma

JP said:
Cowardice of silence
The renewal of Aung San Suu Kyi's arrest casts shame on the Burmese junta's western sponsors

John Pilger The Guardian, Saturday May 31 2008 Article history When I phoned Aung San Suu Kyi's home in Rangoon yesterday, I imagined the path to her door that looks down on Inya Lake. Through ragged palms, a trip-wire is visible, a reminder that this is the prison of a woman whose party was elected by a landslide in 1990, a democratic act extinguished by men in ludicrous uniforms. Her phone rang and rang; I doubt if it is connected now. Once, in response to my "How are you?" she laughed about her piano's need of tuning. She also spoke about lying awake, breathless, listening to the thumping of her heart.

Now her silence is complete. This week, the Burmese junta renewed her house arrest, beginning the 13th year. As far as I know, a doctor has not been allowed to visit her since January, and her house was badly damaged in the cyclone. And yet the secretary-general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, could not bring himself to utter her name on his recent, grovelling tour of Burma. It is as if her fate and that of her courageous supporters, who on Tuesday beckoned torture and worse merely by unfurling the banners of her National League for Democracy, have become an embarrassment for those who claim to represent the "international community". Why?

Where are the voices of those in governments and their related institutions who know how to help Burma? Where are the honest brokers who once eased the oppressed away from their shadows, the true and talented peacemakers who see societies not in terms of their usefulness to "interests" but as victims of it? Where are the Dennis Hallidays and Hans von Sponecks who rose to assistant secretary-general of the UN by the sheer moral force of their international public service?

The answer is simple. They are all but extinguished by a virus called the "war on terror". Where once men and women of good heart and good intellect and good faith stood in parliaments and world bodies in defence of the human rights of others, there is now cowardice. Think of the parliament at Westminster, which cannot even cajole itself into holding an inquiry into the criminal invasion of Iraq, let alone to condemn it and speak up for its victims. Last year, 100 eminent British doctors pleaded with the minister for international development, then Hilary Benn, for emergency medical aid to be sent to Iraqi children's hospitals: "Babies are dying for want of a 95 pence oxygen mask," they wrote. The minister turned them down flat.

I mention that because medical aid for children is exactly the kind of assistance the British government now insists the Burmese junta should accept without delay. "There are people suffering in Burma," said an indignant Gordon Brown. "There are children going without food ... it is utterly unacceptable that when international aid is offered, the regime will try to prevent that getting in." David Miliband chimed in with "malign neglect". Say that to the children of Iraq and Afghanistan and Gaza, where Britain's role is as neglectful and malign as any. As scores of children in Shia areas of Baghdad are blown to bits by America and what the BBC calls Iraq's "democratic government", the British are silent, as ever. "We" say nothing while Israel torments and starves the children of Gaza, ignoring every attempt to bring a ceasefire with Hamas, all in the name of a crusade that dares not say its name. What might have been a new day for humanity in the post-cold war years, even a renewal of the spirit of the Declaration of Human Rights, of "never again" from Palestine to Burma, was cancelled by the ambitions of a sole rapacious power that has cowed all. The "war on terror" allows Australia and Israel to train Burma's internal security thugs. It consumes both most humanitarian aid indirectly and the very internationalism capable of bringing the "clever" pressure on Burma, about which Aung San Suu Kyi once spoke.

Dismissing the idiocy of a military intervention in her country, she asked: "What about all those who trade with the generals, who give them many millions of dollars that keep them going?" She was referring to the huge oil and gas companies, Total and Chevron, which effectively hand the regime $2.7bn a year, and the Halliburton company (former chief executive Vice-President Dick Cheney) that backed the construction of the Yadana pipeline, and the British travel companies that send tourists across bridges and roads built with forced labour. Audley Travel promotes its Burma holidays in the Guardian. The BBC, in contravention of its charter, has just bought 75% of Lonely Planet travel guides, a truculent defender of "our" right to be tourists in Burma regardless of slave labour, or cyclones, or the woman beyond the trip-wire. Shame.

:( :mad:
 
I often find Pilger has problems when it comes to Burma, apart from the obvious Chevron and Total (which do indeed deserve to be highlighted). A military strike against Naypyidaw is dismissed as 'idiocy' (his words, not ASSK's though he tries to get them into her lips) despite the fact that the Burmese will whisper their desire for it into the ear of westerners they trust. No mention of the massive Asian support for the regime, which utterly dwarfs the Total / Chevron deals.

I agree with Pilger generally on the war on terror, but he does a disservice to Burmese by struggling to make Burma fit his pre-conceived political stance. Does the war on terror take money out of humanitarian budgets? Probably. Was there more aid being spent on Burma before the war on terror? Absolutely not, and it's increased greatly this year.

Israel's supply of battle strategy is little known but true (not sure it still goes on though, I think Russia have taken over), but it has never used the war on terror to justify it. Rather, nobody knows about it because it's so fucking disgusting and shameful. Australia's training of Burma internal security thugs justified by the war on terror? This is nonsensical. In a calculated move, a group of human rights lawyers pushed the Australian government to let them give training in human rights law to some middle ranking Burmese military, trying to plant seeds of humanity within the ranks. Misguided? Possibly. Justified by the war on terorr? Absolute shite.

He wrote nothing when John Bolton was pushing for Burma to be on the UNSC agenda, which could easily have been painted as USA using the war on terror to bully a small country. No mention of Bush speeches denouncing Burma.

I might write to him, actually...
 
8/8/88

20 years on, little has changed. Don't expect a repeat: there had been big demonstrations leading up to this day, plenty of student mobilisation, high-level government resignations which fed expectations of change. With all openings in the political opportunity structure closed, the junta as united as it's ever been, and the most experienced activists imprisoned, in exile, or deep underground, all looks hopeless.

I'm ready to be proved totally wrong.
 
Ouch, i totally missed the significance of today's date!

Hopelessness is only a temporary state mate.

I feel sure that one of the outcomes of last year's efforts by the monks and the people is a heightened consciousness amongst the burmese people, especially those too young to really recall 88.

You just cannot keep a good man down forever. Justice, truth, and good will always triumph; quite possibly the only path to follow that will definitely deliver this though, is the path of patience. All good things come to those who wait.

Incidentally, i have a gut feeling that big changes are happening in the general mindset of the people next door to burma. Asian nations in general are experiencing a shift from hierarchical societies, to more independent-thinking ones. They've talked about this for years in thailand, but all it took was one complete bastard to take the reigns of the nation to bring things to people's consciousness. Words are being converted into action at this very moment, and i'm enjoying watching the show! I mean thailand, not burma. But my main point is that good will come to the burmese people, although on the timescale they may have to wait longer.

In all bad lie the kernels of good...
 
Oh the woeful Gambari, the so-called Special Advisor to Burma. Almost a year since the September protests and since he started his latest round of visits... all with nothing to show. His latest trip to Burma this week has been a farce, and it appears all pro-democracy groups inside and outside the country are united in their disapproval of his work. For a mission which desires a "credible inclusive process", he's spent two full days with junta representatives - all of of lesser importance - and around 20 minutes with the National League for Democracy. No meetings with those of the 88 Generation group who are lucky enough not to be in prison, no meetings with the All Burma Monks Alliance. In the meeting with the NLD, he refused to talk about the rigged referendum for the new constitution and the UN's position on (what will patently be rigged) the 'elections' in 2010. Farcical.

And, by choice, by way of getting a message out to the UN of their failed mission, no meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi. She didn't turn up to a meeting Gambari had requested on Wednesday, and today "in a last ditch effort to meet with the opposition leader, Gambari is reported to have waited outside Aung San Suu Kyi's residence for approximately 90 minutes this morning. However, the Nobel Laureate was steadfast in refusing the Special Advisor a sitting."

Good for you, DASSK. Fuck you, Gambari.

Linky for the full story: http://www.irrawaddy.org/opinion_story.php?art_id=13984
 
On the eve of last year's uprising, the junta are going all out to block any news. Two of the major exile dissident websites - Democratic Voice of Burma and The Irrawaddy - have been hit by massive DDOS attacks, and the interweb has all but ground to halt in Burma itself. Army and hired thugs everywhere on Rangoon's streets.
 
I think it was coming to know about the situation in burma when i first came to thailand that i first realised that language is often not capable of delivering the right description of how one feels.

Burma and the political situation there is simply beyond language. The people in power do things that language simply cannot cope with. Pathetic is really just a pathetic attempt to describe these thugs!
 
I also think that when it comes to burma, a serious affront is delivered to any interested observers: our upbringing that suggests justice will always prevail in the end is challenged head on. There is no hint of justice occurring in the near future in that poor blighted country. And there never will be while people around the world simply do not care. Humans have a very nasty streak in their genes. I don't think it needs be this way, but it is this way at this juncture in our history.
 
I also think that when it comes to burma, a serious affront is delivered to any interested observers: our upbringing that suggests justice will always prevail in the end is challenged head on. There is no hint of justice occurring in the near future in that poor blighted country. And there never will be while people around the world simply do not care. Humans have a very nasty streak in their genes. I don't think it needs be this way, but it is this way at this juncture in our history.

errrrr, cheers, can you tell us how great you are again?
 
It's the most wonderful news to come out of Burma since the uprising last year, and everyone is overjoyed to see U Win Tin free!!

14299-wintin.gif


However, it marks absolutely no change in policy, and comes conveniently at the start of the UN General Assembly's new session, at which there'll be numerous speeches attacking Burma. There are over 2,100 political prisoners in Burma right now. Of the 9,000 convicts released today, a mere six were inside for political reasons:

Mizzima said:
Veteran Journalist U Win Tin from Insein Prison

Captain Win Htein, in-charge of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's office members

Khin Maung Swe, elected MP from San Chaung Township

Daw May Win Myint, elected MP from Mayankone Township

Aung Soe Myint, elected MP from Taungoo

Aye Thein, member of the National League for Democracy, Thabeikkyin Township
Around 1,000 monks and activists have been jailed in the year following last September's uprising, 39 arrested and 21 sentenced in August alone.
 
It's the most wonderful news to come out of Burma since the uprising last year, and everyone is overjoyed to see U Win Tin free!!

14299-wintin.gif


However, it marks absolutely no change in policy, and comes conveniently at the start of the UN General Assembly's new session, at which there'll be numerous speeches attacking Burma. There are over 2,100 political prisoners in Burma right now. Of the 9,000 convicts released today, a mere six were inside for political reasons:


Around 1,000 monks and activists have been jailed in the year following last September's uprising, 39 arrested and 21 sentenced in August alone.

:(


And don't get me started on the post-Beijing 2008 "clean up" - the 60,000 kids poisoned by melamine is shrouding the depth of the repression.


:(


Take care peeps.


Woof
 
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