burma - potential uprising?

[fela fan]

The thing is though ymu, i can't feel optimistic even with sounds like that coming out. I went through all of this throughout the 90s and it looked more promising then. But each time optimism reared its head, the bastards rode the waves.

I know times are different, but those generals are as brutal as you can get in human beings. They will willingly give over absolutely nothing, and i don't even think china could do much even if they wanted to. Only force will beat them, unless they have a mutiny from other generals.

As for them being a bit stupid, that is easy to agree with. I see some of the generals in thailand and the things they say, intelligence is not their forte, but bullets are...

Mutiny or outside force and intervention, no other hope.

 

[nino_savatte]

Lee Kuan Yew: Burma generals rather dumb

Singapore's senior statesman Lee Kuan Yew believes the ruling generals of Burma are "rather dumb" when it comes to managing the country's economy and will not be able to survive indefinitely, a published interview said Wednesday.

However, the Army must be part of the solution to the problems facing the country, he said. If the Army is dissolved, all of Burma's administrative instruments will go with it, and the country will have nothing with which to govern itself.

Lee, Singapore's founding prime minister and currently minister mentor, spoke with a columnist from the University of California's Los Angeles Media Centre and a new-media expert from the University of Southern California.

More: http://bbwob.blogspot.com/2007/10/lee-kuan-yew-burma-generals-rather-dumb.html

Hmmmm, the military have been running Burma since 1962. They may be economically "rather dumb" but they're not flexible and like military governments everywhere, they will find a way to cling onto power.

Isn't Lee Kuan Yew a bit of a neo-liberal?

 

[newharper]

India's position

This is an article analysing India's realist position.

“We have strategic and economic interests to protect in Myanmar. It is up to the Myanmarese people to struggle for democracy.”
- Pranab Mukherjee, in response to the recent pro-democracy protests in Myanmar.

It was a remarkable statement, considering that it came from the foreign minister of a nation that was one of the earliest supporters of the Myanmarese pro-democracy

On September 25th, in the thick of the biggest demonstrations in Yangon, India’s Petroleum Minister Murli Deora flew in to Yangon to sign a 150 million dollar natural gas deal with the junta.

“We are in no position to annoy Yangon,” says Phunchok Stobdan, senior fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He adds, “Democracy and principles is one thing, ground reality is another. The democracy experiment in Myanmar hasn’t proven successful. The country is populated by multiple ethnic groups and there’s considerable tension. It’s similar to the situation in India’s Northeast. We are controlling the Northeast largely through military means, but does anyone say that there’s a junta in control of the Northeast? Minus the military, there will be complete chaos in Myanmar.”

But what is to explain India’s snapping of ties with the pro-democracy opposition in Myanmar? Especially since China, no champion of democracy itself maintains active ties with the movement despite being the biggest financier and supporter of the junta. “China has been far more cleverer than India in this regard. They’ve always make sure that they’re not out of touch with the pro-democracy leaders,” says Dr. Thint Swe, a former MP in the Myanmar Parliament and now a ‘Minister’ in the Myanmarese dissidents’ ‘government in exile’, a body which the Indian government does not recognize. “After the National League for Democracy (Aung San Suu Kyi’s party) won the election in 1990, the Chinese Ambassador was the first to congratulate us. The Indians were nowhere.

The most important thing to understand is that the Indian interest in Myanmar is beyond the issue of democracy.”

Realpolitik rules.

http://www.tehelka.com/story_main34.asp?filename=Ws061007Dangerous.asp

 

[frogwoman]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7035943.stm

 

[frogwoman]

Activists ‘tortured to death’
Two students drowned during water torture, claims Thai-based human rights group

Several Burmese pro-democracy activists arrested in the recent demonstrations, including two young Rangoon University students, have been tortured to death while being pressed to disclose the whereabouts of comrades on the run, human rights organisations reported today.

They include a leading Mandalay member of the opposition National League for Democracy, 42-year-old Win Shwe, whose family was told he had died three days ago in a police interrogation centre and his body already disposed of, according to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma).

Win Shwe was arrested on September 26, along with four other activists who took part with him in supporting demonstrations by protesting monks. The fate of the other four is not known.

The two student victims of the regime’s interrogators, both in their twenties, had drowned while undergoing "water torture", a reliable source reported from his hiding place.

The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma) is trying to keep a tally of activists, demonstrators and monks arrested in the demonstrations that swept the country in recent weeks. The organisation receives no cooperation from the regime, which only acknowledges the presence of a prisoner in its detention cells when he or she dies.

The AAPP said it feared the number of detainees dying under interrogation was far higher than the three it had been told about this week. It had registered several bodies of monks found in Rangoon’s Pazundaung River.

The regime's inhuman interrogation methods appear to be paying dividends, because several fugitive activists have been rounded up in recent days. One, Kyaw Ko Ko, a leader of the All Burma Federation of Student Unions, was arrested with two comrades as he was reporting by telephone to an exile radio station in Norway.

Another, a prominent member of the 88 Generation Students group, Hla Myo Naung, was grabbed when he visited a Rangoon clinic for treatment for a chronic eye infection.

Two other student activists were arrested in a raid on a Rangoon house, while a third escaped through a window. The house owner was also arrested.

from newsdeskspecial.co.uk

 

[purves grundy]

Fucking hell

Who'd believe that this is 2007?

Mutiny or outside force and intervention, no other hope

No other hope to get rid of the junta completely. But assuming those things don't happen, they're not gonna go, there won't be a Marcos moment. The military are too institutionalised. So how can life be made better for the average Burmese right now, even with the military there? They'll have to be worked with for many years to come, and step by step pushed to the fringes of life where the they belong.

I think that's the uncomfortable truth we have to swallow.

 

[frogwoman]

I know this isn't quite the same situation, Purves, but are there any lessons to be learned from apartheid south africa?

Im specifically talking about the kind of (violent) direct action by the likes of the ANC ... I know there's a big debate about how effective it really was, but do you think it could have any impact? Im not trying to advocate anything or saying we should take up arms or anything like that lol, but there's a feeling on a lot of the blogs i've been reading that non violent resistance is not working.

My feeling about it is rather mixed, because i dont believe in violence and violence gives the junta some justification for their actions - like that they are defending the country against "destruction" and they could easily link it to the war on terror, as well as the fact that many perfectly innocent people have members of the military (not the junta) in their families But at the same the peaceful tactics don't seem to be working because they just seem to get walked all over and crushed all the time

It just seems like they are just getting walked all over indefinitely because they won't fight back I hope that isn't too much of a stupid thing to say, i've never been there so i don't know, i mean what do you think about it? x

 

[gnoriac]

I could only see the generals being overcome by a 3-way thing - enormous pressure from the outside including sanctions, further protests / civil disobedience in the main cities, and mutiny from squaddies and lower-ranking officers. Anyone of these components missing and it'll go nowhere.
I think the big difference this time has been the repression directed at the monks, the generals were hesitant to go there and rightly so. It's going to make soldiers very isolated from their own communities, and the resentment from this will fester as long as it's in living memory.
As for violence, the army have already got that with their fight against the minority militias. They've been winning all the way so far, but if they have to lock down the main cities they're gonna be a bit more stretched.
In the meantime, sadly, anyone standing up to these evil shits is gonna have to have more courage than I think any of us could ever imagine having.

It's another battle lost, but don't forget when the Vietnamese beat the Americans they lost every significant battle.

 

[frogwoman]

In the meantime, sadly, anyone standing up to these evil shits is gonna have to have more courage than I think any of us could ever imagine having.

agreed.

 

[fela fan]

What's happening in burma, and outside reaction to events there, is a microcosm of humanity at work. And it's a sad indictment.

Those quotes from indian people remind me of the mantra i used to hear in britain when i lived there, 'yeah, that's all very well, but business is business', and, 'it's a dog eat dog world'.

It's where humans took a seriously wrong turning in their lives.

 

[newharper]

The Indie keep's up the pressure.

Only now, the full horror of Burmese junta's repression of monks emerges

"But now the soldiers only come at night. They take anyone they can identify from their videos. People who clapped, who offered water to the monks, who knelt and prayed as they passed. People who happened to turn and watch as they passed by and their faces were caught on film. It is now we are most fearful. It is now we need the world to help us."

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article3047606.ece

 

[frogwoman]

newharper, i don't think i sent u a pm about the meetup. There's a thread in protest xx

Nice to see the indie keeping it up

 

[purves grundy]

It just seems like they are just getting walked all over indefinitely because they won't fight back I hope that isn't too much of a stupid thing to say, i've never been there so i don't know, i mean what do you think about it? x

I know what you mean. I often wonder why there hasn't been a split in the pro-democracy movement between advocates of peaceful resistance and those who want to take the military on. Afaik, the latter group don't even exist. Why? Buddhism, lack of weapons, economic situation means that most people just concentrate on eking out a living, and the most willing recruits are in ethnic rebel armies which means the armed resistance is split and not fighting on common ground.

I guess it would be a no-win situation without significant funding from sympathetic powers, and that would lose the movement its its key selling point and plays straight into the hands of the junta.

It's clear that non-violent resistance isn't working, because of the brutality of the junta on the one hand and the lack of opportunity to exploit all the techniques that non-violent resistance has to offer. There's no political space in which to organise a mass strike - unions are banned, the NLD is incredibly restricted in what it can do - and there's few people who can afford to do that anyway. Add to this the all-pervading lack of hope, which is prevalent at the moment - "What's the point, they always win." - and you have a...ahhh bloody hell..... a grim future

I guess all we have is miracles, the UN, and the games of the big powers.

 

[ymu]

DVB are the only means of mass organisation - do they ever get that radical? Do you know if they broadcast the 8888 call for a general strike from Monday 1st Oct for example?

 

[purves grundy]

DVB are the only means of mass organisation - do they ever get that radical? Do you know if they broadcast the 8888 call for a general strike from Monday 1st Oct for example?

It's mainly news and extremely well-researched reports. I'll find out if they broadcasted the call for a strike. They probably did, but the near-impossibility of organisation on the ground impedes mass collective action like this.

 

[purves grundy]

So, a UNSC statement

Non-legally binding, of course, but for the first time China and Russia are on board, (after some typical umming and erring over the wording watered down the original statement.)

Release all political prisoners. Start genuine dialogue.

 

[frogwoman]

Good

 

[purves grundy]

The Security Council welcomes the recent mission by the Secretary-General's Special Adviser to Myanmar Mr. Ibrahim Gambari, reaffirms its strong and unwavering support for the Secretary-General's good offices mission as mandated by General Assembly Resolution 61/232, and expresses its appreciation for the personal engagement of the Secretary-General.

The Security Council strongly deplores the use of violence against peaceful demonstrations in Myanmar and welcomes Human Rights Council Resolution S-5/1 of 2 October 2007.

The Security Council emphasizes the importance of the early release of all political prisoners and remaining detainees. It also calls on the Government of Myanmar and all other parties concerned to work together towards a de-escalation of the situation and a peaceful solution.

The Security Council stresses the need for the Government of Myanmar to create the necessary conditions, for a genuine dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and all concerned parties and ethnic groups, in order to achieve an inclusive national reconciliation with the direct support of the United Nations.

The Security Council encourages the Government of Myanmar to consider seriously Mr. Gambari's recommendations and proposals.

The Security Council also calls on the Government of Myanmar to take all necessary measures to address the political, economic, humanitarian, and human rights issues that are the concern of its people and emphasizes that the future of Myanmar lies in the hands of all of its people.

The Security Council welcomes the Government of Myanmar's public commitment to work with the United Nations and the appointment of a liaison officer with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Security Council stresses the importance that such commitments are followed by action. It acknowledges that the Government of Myanmar had invited Mr. Gambari to Myanmar. It underscores its support for his return as early as possible, in order to facilitate concrete actions and tangible results. The Security Council urges the Government of Myanmar and all parties concerned to cooperate fully with Mr. Gambari.

The Security Council welcomes the important role played by the ASEAN countries in urging restraint, calling for a peaceful transition to democracy, and supporting the good offices mission.

It notes that the good offices mission is a process, and encourages the sustained support and engagement of the international community in helping Myanmar.

The Security Council remains seized of the matter.

.

 

[frogwoman]

There are some interesting artilces on the front page of Mizzima as well. The internet is back in burma ... well, sort of. And there've been more anti-junta protests in India x

 

[frogwoman]

Five Generals arrested for not shooting at monks

(From buddhistchannel.tv)
In the tumultuous days of the much-talked-about protest by Buddhist monks, in Burma the military junta had 5 generals and over 400 soldiers arrested who had refused to open fire on those taking part in the marches.

This was told to the Indonesian daily Jakarta Oost by a high-ranking functionary of the regime who requested anonymity. "Five generals refused and were rapidly arrested," said the source, who did not want to give the names of the soldiers arrested.

The same happened to "almost 400 soldiers from the Sikai division near the city of Mandalay, who did not want to shoot at the monks."

According to the source, the mutiny is a sign of problems in the regime, where reportedly many - even some of the highest ranking functionaries - were struck by the brutal repression by the military junta. "Monks are the symbol of our religion and our life. Killing them is considered the worst of all sins."

According to the man interviewed, many public functionaries silently showed their opposition to the brutal repression by not going to work.

Military authorities claim to have released about 1,600 of the 2,700 arrested on 26-27 September and the days afterwards.

According to the official version, about ten people were killed in the shooting, but sources from anti-governmental groups speak of many more (over 200).

 

[purves grundy]

The same happened to "almost 400 soldiers from the Sikai division near the city of Mandalay, who did not want to shoot at the monks."

This explains how Mandalay escaped pretty much unscathed. I wonder what the mood is like there now...

 

[ymu]

Link between Burma and Olympics won't fade

ON Aug. 8, 2008, the summer Olympics will begin in Beijing. The date is not accidental. The number eight represents good fortune in Chinese culture.

But that date - 8/08/08 - falls exactly 20 years after the infamous day Burmese military forces massacred more than 1,000 civilians who were demonstrating for democratic rule. On Aug. 8, 1988, after the slaughter, Burma's Nobel winner Aung San Suu Kyi made her first political speech and assumed the role of opposition leader. The link between the two dates has been noticed by many who are horrified by the current carnage in Burma.

Burmese civilians, along with saffron-robed Buddhist monks, are again being cut down in the streets. China, Burma's neighbor and major trading partner, is best positioned to influence the current junta, and urge them to negotiate with Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for most of the past 18 years.

But China has blocked efforts by the United States and European countries to have the United Nations Security Council condemn the crackdown, saying it is an internal matter for Burma (called Myanmar by the junta). Despite China's growing leadership role in Asia, it has been unwilling to take the lead in resolving the crisis.

...

Despite its big economic stake in Sudan, Beijing long resisted U.S. pressure to help stop the killing in Darfur. But the Chinese finally dropped objections to a United Nations/African Union peacekeeping force after human-rights groups threatened an Olympic boycott. Yet Chinese spokesmen have rejected any linkage of Burma and the Olympics.

More: http://www.whittierdailynews.com/opinions/ci_7150831

 

[purves grundy]

Oh yes, this cheered me up

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=8998

And the bit about the graffiti is very significant. I've never seen any political graffiti in Rangoon.

 

[gnoriac]

http://www.whittierdailynews.com/opinions/ci_7150831

From that link:

When it comes to Burma, if the killing stops and the junta can remove the issue from the world's radar screen, he believes Chinese leaders would prefer not to confront the problem.

I think that's spot on, it comes down yet again to that Asian 'face' thing. The CCP's top brass could be made to be shitting themselves over the Olympics. And all we can do is keep providing an embarrassingly large blit on the radar screen.

 

[ymu]

<---clickpic (754,000 sigs on their petition now)

 

[frogwoman]

I know about the petition but I cant see a link anyhwere on their site to the "squeeze the junta" part of it. x

 

[teqniq]

The link i put on the other thread works - it's not a petition as such it's a letter to your foreign minister of choice (in the EU) here.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah i know i signed it but what im saying is that it's not well publicised on the main Avaaz site and that needs to be sorted out. maybe someone could drop them a line?? x

 

[frogwoman]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7042885.stm

 

[purves grundy]

They are complete fucking lying thieving murdering thick-as-pig-shit scum.

So what do you propose now, Mr. Gambari? Hope we get another nice holiday snap of you with the lady.