Brexit or Bremain - Urban votes

[littlebabyjesus]

Of course, Osborne also wants to sell the UK off to China, but I totally agree with the above. My specific question would be 'how does a vote 'leave' help in the fight against austerity?'

 

[SaskiaJayne]

I think the 'Lexit' theory is along the lines of... After a brexit vote the Tory party tears itself apart for a bit & when the next GE is called, a Corbyn led Labour gov gets in with a socialist agenda of social house building, rent control & stronger employment law. As was alluded to earlier in this or another thread, in or out is a choice between a plate of boiled shit or fried shit.

 

[Miss-Shelf]

OMG I am at a friend's house. A good friend. A socialist leaning friend. A friend who is kindness personified. A friend who is a friend to everyone regardless of religion or class or nationality or ethnicity. One if those great sorts if friends.

And she's going to vote LEAVE as she thinks we can get our country " back " and do a better job without Europe

 

[Mr Moose]

I think the 'Lexit' theory is along the lines of... After a brexit vote the Tory party tears itself apart for a bit & when the next GE is called, a Corbyn led Labour gov gets in with a socialist agenda of social house building, rent control & stronger employment law. As was alluded to earlier in this or another thread, in or out is a choice between a plate of boiled shit or fried shit.

I think it's an incorrect prediction too. Vote leave and it's a pretty seamless transition to team Bojo from unpopular Cameron. The point of UKIP disappears and those Tories who went there will return to a populist winning Tory party. Result they win huge next election, really huge taking the Tory and all other conservative/nationalist vote.

Remain and the Tory party implodes. Bojo ousts Dave in a bloody confrontation inspired by leaver anger. However the Tories will tear apart completely if they try to campaign to take us out despite the result. Consequence is that they haemorrhage support and MPs to UKIP who stand to take us out at the next GE.

It's the latter Labour can take advantage of on a reform the EU from within/anti-austerity platform.

 

[crossthebreeze]

Of course, Osborne also wants to sell the UK off to China, but I totally agree with the above. My specific question would be 'how does a vote 'leave' help in the fight against austerity?'

Because organised labour, communities in struggle, social movements etc can more easily effect change if they are only having to fight the UK government for change, rather than the UK government plus the EU and convincing all the governments of the EU countries that a change needs to happen.
Because staying in the EU might mean the UK has to ratify a renegotiated TTIP, which would basically mean the end of the NHS in its current form.
Because the EU is pro austerity (look at Italy or Greece). And the choice the Tories are giving us is austerity in the EU or austerity out of the EU.
Because new policies and arrangements would have to be put in place by the government about many things - so pressure by organised labour and social movements could get some wins (although the Tories will of course implement austerity and general shitness unless they implode), and if a Tory implosion does happens Labour would hopefully make some marginally less shit choices.

Of course the risk is that the far right and racists are emboldened by a vote to leave, and that organised labour and other struggles don't win any fights, and that the Tories don't implode, and that a recession happens giving them more of an excuse to implement worse austerity, and that in the short term we end up in a much shitter place.

Which is why i'm leaning towards spoiling my ballot.

 

[realitybites]

I think the 'Lexit' theory is along the lines of... After a brexit vote the Tory party tears itself apart for a bit & when the next GE is called, a Corbyn led Labour gov gets in with a socialist agenda of social house building, rent control & stronger employment law...

I agree, the Tories have moved too central for my liking, I can see what they're doing, trying to be the people's party and address the needs of the disgruntled new labor. If we vote out, Farage and the others bring in a harder right, mainstream Tories take a knock and the left/right political scale establishes itself once again. If this happens, at the next election there's a chance of a big swing towards JC.. Projective forecasting is my only justification for voting for the boys from the Brexit stuff

 

[butchersapron]

Fortress Europe. To show the anti immigrants.

A bigger ukip.

 

[Mr Moose]

I agree, the Tories have moved too central for my liking, I can see what they're doing, trying to be the people's party and address the needs of the disgruntled new labor. If we vote out, Farage and the others bring in a harder right, mainstream Tories take a knock and the left/right political scale establishes itself once again. If this happens, at the next election there's a chance of a big swing towards JC.. Projective forecasting is my only justification for voting for the boys from the Brexit stuff

Not going to happen imo. Leave vote is a rout of the left and all forms of progressive wishy washy thinking. You'd have to hope Osbourne was correct on the economy for quick a swing back to the left.

More likely is that people continue to get shafted in the jobs and housing market and we get ever more populist and harsh policies to satisfy a belligerently nationalist tendency.

 

[binka]

Yes, you know I don't even know what the point of the comment is other than an attempt at demonstrating some sort of supposed moral superiority, does Yossarian really think that he is going to win people over by comparing them to racist terrorists and David Icke? Personally what got to me about it was the implication that DotCommunist simply hadn't thought through the issue sufficiently or that he is incapable of doing that. Anyone who has actually taken the time to engage with DotCommunist, on this subject or really any other, can see that is far from the case. If I were a Remain campaign strategist this sort of knee-jerk ignorance would be causing me to tear my hair out.

Your comment above reminded me of an image a friend of mine shared on facebook the other day:

I pointed out a house price crash would suit me just fine

 

[crossthebreeze]

Immigration is the other reason why i'm abstaining.

Don't want to vote for Fortress Europe which is keeping refugees in miserably run internment camps then shipping them back to Turkey (which they call a "safe country"!). Free movement has always been about free movement of people as labour not people as people. Brexit might mean that France stops hosting the UK border posts, so the UK would have to either allow refugees to enter Britain legally and apply for asylum at the actual border, or apply for asylum outside of the country. While I don't think the UK is going to get a humane asylum policy any time soon, at least the government will have to take responsibility for it, rather than passing the buck to the EU/Greece/Italy/Turkey, and there's more opportunity for struggles and solidarity efforts from within the UK to make an impact on policy. There is always a chance that migration policy might also become fairer to people from settled communities from outside the EU.

But I don't want to vote for Little Britain either. I live and work in an area of high EU immigration. I think most of the Greek/Spanish/French/Portuguese/Polish/German people I know will be ok post Brexit (most have skilled trades or professions or are studying so would probably get points to stay anyway, and most don't have families here). But I'm also neighbours with a lot of Roma/Romani people form Slovakia, Czech Republic, and to a lesser extent Romania. As far as I can gather, lots of the adults have either casualised warehouse/factory/cleaning jobs and/or do self employment of one sort or another (some of it very marginal) - i don't think many of them will be winners in any points-based system. They are mostly here trying to avoid racist violence and discrimination in their countries - and their kids are guaranteed an education here whereas in Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania education for Roma children and young people is really poor. I've been working with some of the Roma/Romani children, young people, and parents/grandparents (mostly mothers) recently, and have been finding it a really positive experience. I can't vote to effectively deport those kids, or any of my neighbours. I also worry that racism will increase for various reasons in the immediate aftermath of Brexit.

 

[gosub]

Not going to happen imo. Leave vote is a rout of the left and all forms of progressive wishy washy thinking. You'd have to hope Osbourne was correct on the economy for quick a swing back to the left.

More likely is that people continue to get shafted in the jobs and housing market and we get ever more populist and harsh policies to satisfy a belligerently nationalist tendency.

They discussed Mr Osbourne's correctness on the Daily Politics on Wednesday (first half hour).

 

[FridgeMagnet]

Don't want to vote for Fortress Europe which is keeping refugees in miserably run internment camps then shipping them back to Turkey (which they call a "safe country"!). Free movement has always been about free movement of people as labour not people as people. Brexit might mean that France stops hosting the UK border posts, so the UK would have to either allow refugees to enter Britain legally and apply for asylum at the actual border, or apply for asylum outside of the country. While I don't think the UK is going to get a humane asylum policy any time soon, at least the government will have to take responsibility for it, rather than passing the buck to the EU/Greece/Italy/Turkey, and there's more opportunity for struggles and solidarity efforts from within the UK to make an impact on policy. There is always a chance that migration policy might also become fairer to people from settled communities from outside the EU.

EU migration policy might be (is) a complete disgrace, but Brexit will definitely not make it any better and probably make it worse. Domestic policy will get generally harsher as anti-immigration forces will have gotten a boost. It will also make threats by other EU countries to leave if EU policy doesn't get harsher more believable.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Because organised labour, communities in struggle, social movements etc can more easily effect change if they are only having to fight the UK government for change, rather than the UK government plus the EU and convincing all the governments of the EU countries that a change needs to happen.
Because staying in the EU might mean the UK has to ratify a renegotiated TTIP, which would basically mean the end of the NHS in its current form.
Because the EU is pro austerity (look at Italy or Greece). And the choice the Tories are giving us is austerity in the EU or austerity out of the EU.
Because new policies and arrangements would have to be put in place by the government about many things - so pressure by organised labour and social movements could get some wins (although the Tories will of course implement austerity and general shitness unless they implode), and if a Tory implosion does happens Labour would hopefully make some marginally less shit choices.

Of course the risk is that the far right and racists are emboldened by a vote to leave, and that organised labour and other struggles don't win any fights, and that the Tories don't implode, and that a recession happens giving them more of an excuse to implement worse austerity, and that in the short term we end up in a much shitter place.

Which is why i'm leaning towards spoiling my ballot.

UK isn't part of the euro. Yet to see any argument that shows how the eu forced UK into austerity. Osborne cameron etc were coming in their pants at the idea of doing it.

 

[D'wards]

Whatever the polls say you can whack another few points on the brexit percentage - bound to be a load of "Shy Brexitiers" about.

 

[DotCommunist]

Your comment above reminded me of an image a friend of mine shared on facebook the other day:

I pointed out a house price crash would suit me just fine

when you go on holiday. My holibobs will be camber sands. Think I might get a cheap spain trip but other than that

UK isn't part of the euro. Yet to see any argument that shows how the eu forced UK into austerity. Osborne cameron etc were coming in their pants at the idea of doing it.

they are part of the architecture that madates austerity over the face of evidence that it just fucks things up worse? the whole 'but the tories!' argument seems to be predicated on the idea that the EU holds them back. It clearly fucking doesn't, not at all, else we wouldn't be here now with me having a 5 week wait for a doctors appmnt cos of the health and social care act 2012.
These aren't monsters being held back by the EU. They really aren't. They're complicit and active in the project

 

[redsquirrel]

Your comment above reminded me of an image a friend of mine shared on facebook the other day:
I pointed out a house price crash would suit me just fine

They really don't see the connection between this type of shit and why people are voting leave do they. You mean after the AV ref, the Scottish Ref and the rise of UKIP you'd think that at least some liberals might have grasped the idea that calling the people you are trying to win over thick, racists might just possibly not be a great campaigning strategy.

 

[binka]

They really don't see the connection between this type of shit and why people are voting leave do they. You mean after the AV ref, the Scottish Ref and the rise of UKIP you'd think that at least some liberals might have grasped the idea that calling the people you are trying to win over thick, racists might just possibly not be a great campaigning strategy.

I've been getting really wound up by the constant sneering by liberal remainers who are no better informed than the people they consider thick proles. Being smug is bad enough but being that smug when you don't really know what you're talking about is just too much.

Asked a teacher friend who is anti-cuts and pro-corbyn (but has been posting pics like the one above to fb) why theyd support an organisation that is so opposed to their own view and she had no idea how to respond. Couldn't compute the idea that there may be an anti-eu position that isn't about thickoes hating immigrants.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

They really don't see the connection between this type of shit and why people are voting leave do they. You mean after the AV ref, the Scottish Ref and the rise of UKIP you'd think that at least some liberals might have grasped the idea that calling the people you are trying to win over thick, racists might just possibly not be a great campaigning strategy.

Same goes for some posters on here - how can we teach those less enlightened what their place is in <insert theory> for their ultimate betterment

 

[littlebabyjesus]

they are part of the architecture that madates austerity over the face of evidence that it just fucks things up worse? the whole 'but the tories!' argument seems to be predicated on the idea that the EU holds them back. It clearly fucking doesn't, not at all, else we wouldn't be here now with me having a 5 week wait for a doctors appmnt cos of the health and social care act 2012.
These aren't monsters being held back by the EU. They really aren't. They're complicit and active in the project

Yep, they are complicit and active in the project, a project that didn't require the EU. They will continue to be so, and with nobs on, following an exit from the eu.

But you're wrong on a technicality. The Uk is outside the eurozone. The EU does not mandate austerity for the UK. The UK are not just complicit in the project of austerity. They are its cheerleaders. By choice.

 

[DotCommunist]

But you're wrong on a technicality. The Uk is outside the eurozone. The EU does not mandate austerity for the UK. The UK are not just complicit in the project of austerity. They are its cheerleaders. By choice.

and should we remain maynard keynes comes out and gives us all a balloon? nah.

 

[rutabowa]

I've been getting really wound up by the constant sneering by liberal remainers who are no better informed than the people they consider thick proles. Being smug is bad enough but being that smug when you don't really know what you're talking about is just too much.

Asked a teacher friend who is anti-cuts and pro-corbyn (but has been posting pics like the one above to fb) why theyd support an organisation that is so opposed to their own view and she had no idea how to respond. Couldn't compute the idea that there may be an anti-eu position that isn't about thickoes hating immigrants.

yes definitely. i actually want to remain, so it is really fruatrating seeing people reposting these dumb patronising remain campaign memes and calling people "thick racists"... because if they irritate me, who has decided to vote remain already, then what effect will they have on undecideds?

 

[rutabowa]

although both sides' campaign strategy seems to have been "shoot yiurself in the foot as often as possible" ha

 

[brogdale]

yes definitely. i actually want to remain, so it is really fruatrating seeing people reposting these dumb patronising remain campaign memes and calling people "thick racists"... because if they irritate me, who has decided to vote remain already, then what effect will they have on undecideds?

Doubt stuff like this will have much impact on the decision making of the D/Ks...if they're still undecided at this point, they're unlikely to have very strong views either way and, as such, are more likely to be swayed by 'pragmatic' economic considerations.

 

[rutabowa]

Doubt stuff like this will have much impact on the decision making of the D/Ks...if they're still undecided at this point, they're unlikely to have very strong views either way and, as such, are more likely to be swayed by 'pragmatic' economic considerations.

well i don't know. and you don't either! i only know how they make ME feel.

 

[weltweit]

yes definitely. i actually want to remain, so it is really fruatrating seeing people reposting these dumb patronising remain campaign memes and calling people "thick racists"... because if they irritate me, who has decided to vote remain already, then what effect will they have on undecideds?

But some leavers are "anti-immigration" do you feel the remain campaign should abandon arguments against them? Or abandon making noises to remind other leave voters the company they are keeping?

 

[brogdale]

well i don't know. and you don't either! i only know how they make ME feel.

OK, but you did ask.

 

[Wookey]

Again you conflate EU with Single Market, but that is getting tedious. Somebody else said yesterday that they were frustrated that there is no consensus on what Leave would look like, that is because its down to the sovereign will of small majority parliament, and what you have among the politicians is one eye on the flim flam for the stalls they want to set out for that. That there is a only a small majority is probably one of the reasons we are having this referendum, and it is down to us, but it also means the outcome will be a mashup and I think that is no bad thing either.

The folly of previous politicians and the mantra "ever closer Union" has leads to point where it integrates or dies (and if managed badly I concede it could well disintegrate). As you point out the UK has a semi detached relationship with the the EU (not in EUro, not in Schengen) and if still in, after further integration, would be relegated to mad granny in the attic status. But it is for EUrope -intergrate or die. Far better to think of the UK's membership as the stabilisers on a first bicycle. You know they will have to be removed, and it might get a bit messy -stopping it get too messy that's back to the experts and the politicians (seems to be less overlap these days). If we don't do it now, its not us removing the stabilisers its Mrs Merkel (or whoever her successor is) saying she doesn't need them any more. The 26 other states,stuck having a backy would have a lot more to worry about.

I love the bike metaphor, we need more of this!

 

[ViolentPanda]

the mood amongst tory MP's - both leave and remain - is that if its a 'leave' vote then only a 'leave' candidate can lead the party. the disagreement is over who, and that if its a remain vote, the leave wing think that only a leave candidate can lead the party.

i believe pretty much all tory MP's think that if its a leave vote then Cameron will have to resign by September so that a new leader can do the conference and run the leave negotiations, there are then all manner of disagreements about what happens if its a remain vote. the only thing i think pretty much all agree on is that the referendum has not been Camerons finest hour, and that the previously held wisdom that he would stay until 2019 so a new leader can be fresh and into the 2020 election while still on his/her honeymoon period is completely dead in the water.

If your theory is correct - I'm not so sure that the Tory Party are quite stupid enough to engage in an open civil war on the issue - then we can expect (going on previous leadership contests) some dirty fighting, and the outing of skeletons from cupboards. It'd be nice to think that the Conservatives would contribute to their own electoral demise, but...

 

[ViolentPanda]

Second this. Whilst I agree that the EU is a piece of shit for working class interests I think leaving it is a worse option. Not just for Gove etc but the fact they will have power for 4 years, possibly more if they win another election. I'm worried they'll basically sell us all off to be part of the assembly plant for China's and India's middle classes, that's what I hear when I hear the likes of Farage and Johnson going on about more trade deals with China. All the talk of leaving for left wing reasons seems to be just amongst ourselves and is no where in the main public discourse. I think leaving will weaken Corbyn, again not because I think he's some saviour it's just he's the nearest to my political leanings and he's actually in a position, or at least has the best chance I've ever seen in my life time, to actually doing something to at least punch a hole in the consensu that's existed for my entire life.

So with all that in mind can someone please point out, without sneery condescending if possible, why I should vote leave.

My own reasoning is fairly straightforward. Even if you set aside the right/left issues (which you shouldn't: They're fundamental), you're still left with the question "who benefits most consistently, and in greatest volume, from the current arrangement?". The answer, obviously, is those who form part of the structure that perpetuates neoliberal economic theories - and the mass social consequences that accompany them.
"But surely being a member of the EU provides protections that shield The Common Man from the worst vagaries of neoliberalism?", you ask. Well, that's partially the case, but those "protections" themselves are partial, and are ameliorative of symptoms caused by the same body as is doing the protection. This is an example of neoliberalism acting in its' own interest. If giving us these partial protections became onerous, those protections would be dropped quick as a flash.

This isn't to say that a Brexit UK would be "better" or "worse" than the current situation. Given the parlous state of democracy - that is, actualdemocracy, not the Parliamentary pantomime - in the UK, the likes of you and I would have a long, hard fight ahead of us to achieve improvements in political representation that had some meaning beyond voting for one Establishment prick or another every 4 or 5 years. We would be proceeding from a position where the political status quo in the UK wasn't quite as overtly reinforced by international alliances of capital, though.

 

[sihhi]

Oh I've clicked remain when it should've be exit - sums up what i feel about the process though both can go to hell.