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BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

Brexit crunch - WTF happens next?


  • Total voters
    150
  • Poll closed .
Only consistency I can see in that position beyond arrogant xenophobia and joingoism comes from a naked desire to embark upon a race to the bottom regarding worker rights, consumer standards and environmental protection.

Of course and it's been ovvious from the moment leaving with no deal / clean break rhetoric from the likes of Rees-mogg came to the fore. The clok of plucky Britiania, we used to rule the waves, doing deals, Britain! crap being the only way you could sell it to normal people. These arseholes now claiming the Brexit people voted for is their's. "People voted for pain." A few did, the foaming, self delusional bitter little Englander types but it's not what I heard from anyone I know who voted out or was sympathetic to it.
 
Don't you think that a close to 50/50 split always meant that everyone had to compromise?

I also don't think that there is a clear vote to say 'we' must negotiate 'our' own trade deals - that's just reading things into the vote that weren't there. You talk about people's 'clear reasons' for staying or 'properly leaving', but clarity of reasons is precisely what we don't have. And as has been repeatedly pointed out, what 'leaving' meant swung towards hard brexit under Theresa May - under the Leave campaign it meant many different things, including promising to stay in the single market.

Edit: a useful page on this: What was promised about the customs union before the referendum?
I haven't said anything about trade deals.

If there was a consensus available that would or could satisfy a reasonable majority of the public it would have been found by now. No-one protesting in Parliament Sq has a sign saying "We want a fudge and we want in now". They're saying either "Leave means Leave" or "We already have the best deal".
 
They could in theory refuse to allow the UK to enter, and I'm sure there are many politicians in the EFTA countries who would be opposed to the UK's entry, and the press in the Uk would give a lot of column inches to these politicians... but it suits capitalism too much for their opposition to be anything other than hot air. The pressure from Germany / the EU to let the UK into the EFTA would be very big.
That is true, but isn't also true to say that resisting political pressure from Germany and France is a large part of why EFTA exists in the first place?
 
I haven't said anything about trade deals.

If there was a consensus available that would or could satisfy a reasonable majority of the public it would have been found by now. No-one protesting in Parliament Sq has a sign saying "We want a fudge and we want in now". They're saying either "Leave means Leave" or "We already have the best deal".
Everyone else just wants it over though.
 
Labour and SNP both whipping for Common Market 2.0 in the indicative votes today - good chance it'll pass I reckon.

Is this confirmed? Pretty significant switch from Labour if so as it's not what they promised in their manifesto (of course they lost so no need to stick to manifesto, but even still...)
 
Is this confirmed? Pretty significant switch from Labour if so as it's not what they promised in their manifesto (of course they lost so no need to stick to manifesto, but even still...)
Reported across multiple news sources this afternoon. It may have changed since I last looked mind...
 
Reported across multiple news sources this afternoon. It may have changed since I last looked mind...
At least one Labour MP looks to be planning to defy the whip and vote against
Kevin Barron MP

Small reminder of the manifesto that all Labour MPs were elected on in 2017. Clearly states that we will end freedom of movement when we leave the EU. This is not compatible with supporting Common Market 2.0, I will be voting against.
If it does pass the indicative vote tonight and somehow goes on to be put to a substantive vote, is there a real chance of the Tory party being split? I'd like to think so, but it may just be wishful thinking...
 
If Common Market 2.0 gets a majority in parliament, is there a significant risk that the ERG and associated nutters will switch to supporting May's deal in order to fend it off? Might they end up giving TM what she wants...?
 
FWIW the reason I *didn't* vote for Labour in the 2017 GE was their manifesto pledge to end freedom of movement, so I am happy if they have done a U-turn.
 
There's a risk of this, yeah.
So, in a way, the worst thing that can happen for those supporting 2.0 is that they win the indicative vote? Could even be that May wants them to win, but with less than 50% of MPs voting for it, in order to attract the 'hard to reach' erg arses.

There's a good chance that both of the sentences above are wrong, but given the lunacy of where we are at, 'might be true'.
 
So, in a way, the worst thing that can happen for those supporting 2.0 is that they win the indicative vote? Could even be that May wants them to win, but with less than 50% of MPs voting for it, in order to attract the 'hard to reach' erg arses.

There's a good chance that both of the sentences above are wrong, but given the lunacy of where we are at, 'might be true'.
the only way anything gets through is by taking it to the edge. but yes, if the balance of interests goes the other way tomorrow, then winning tonight doesn't mean much. But it also means that in the breach, May has the numbers.
 
But then people who think that maybe there is a chance of something better won't vote for her shitty deal.

At the moment it's "my deal or no deal".

What if that isn't the case by the end of today?
 
But then people who think that maybe there is a chance of something better won't vote for her shitty deal.

At the moment it's "my deal or no deal".

What if that isn't the case by the end of today?

Today is just indicative and non-binding but the business motion (just passed in the face of Government objection) gives MPs a day on Wednesday in which they are in control of business. In theory they could use Wednesday to pass legislation requiring May to take whatever is passed today to the EU. If she refuses then there would be a GE.
 
But then people who think that maybe there is a chance of something better won't vote for her shitty deal.

At the moment it's "my deal or no deal".

What if that isn't the case by the end of today?
Yes, the one thing she's been good at is keeping it as 'my deal vs x bad thing'. There's all sorts of chat about her being emotionally unable to engage, chat, work something out, but it has also been strategic. It's just about the only line that holds the tory party together and delivers some kind (dogs breakfast) brexit. She really has run out of road now, though I still think there's an outside chance she'll get it through. Probably depends how remainy the DUP have become in the last 3 days.
 
Yes, the one thing she's been good at is keeping it as 'my deal vs x bad thing'. There's all sorts of chat about her being emotionally unable to engage, chat, work something out, but it has also been strategic. It's just about the only line that holds the tory party together and delivers some kind (dogs breakfast) brexit. She really has run out of road now, though I still think there's an outside chance she'll get it through. Probably depends how remainy the DUP have become in the last 3 days.

TBF that has been her greatest failure, not a thing that she is good at.

I don't want to summon up the spirits of the dead, but Thatcher would have looked at May's problem and seen that the only way out of this was her confronting them with the choice of her deal or no Brexit; the ERG are the people who need to be threatened after all and no Brexit is the only thing she can threaten them with. This policy of appeasing them whilst threatening the rest with something her rebels actively want has been idiocy.
 
TBF that has been her greatest failure, not a thing that she is good at.

I don't want to summon up the spirits of the dead, but Thatcher would have looked at May's problem and seen that the only way out of this was her confronting them with the choice of her deal or no Brexit; the ERG are the people who need to be threatened after all and no Brexit is the only thing she can threaten them with. This policy of appeasing them whilst threatening the rest with something her rebels actively want has been idiocy.
No Brexit isn't really a threat she can follow through on though.
 
TBF that has been her greatest failure, not a thing that she is good at.

I don't want to summon up the spirits of the dead, but Thatcher would have looked at May's problem and seen that the only way out of this was her confronting them with the choice of her deal or no Brexit; the ERG are the people who need to be threatened after all and no Brexit is the only thing she can threaten them with. This policy of appeasing them whilst threatening the rest with something her rebels actively want has been idiocy.
She's no good at either threatening or glad handing. Her strategy has been one of holding a knife to her party's throat and now her own. It's shit but it's also got her to now. Failing now later rather than earlier perhaps.
 
Labour and SNP both whipping for Common Market 2.0 in the indicative votes today - good chance it'll pass I reckon.

Oh happy fucking day if the Tories had to swallow that one. It could detonate the fuckers.

For sure they’d probably manage some way of ignoring it, but god they would squirm.
 
The government has shown no sign of paying attention to anything parliament demands unless it has to, so as it's non-binding I expect them to ignore it.
 
The government has shown no sign of paying attention to anything parliament demands unless it has to, so as it's non-binding I expect them to ignore it.

Yep, but the ways out are diminishing though. If Parliament chooses a customs union it won’t ever choose May’s ‘deal’ as it is. That leaves no deal (no), a new referendum or a General Election. That’s a whole load of not what the Government wants.
 
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