BREXIT Crunch time (part 38) WTF is going to happen next?

[Kaka Tim]

so - potential crunch for may next.
looks like her deal will get decisely rejected - again.
that means commons then vote on weather to go with no deal - and all bar 50 brexiteer headbangers will vote no to no deal.
but then its a vote on weather to ask for an extension - which they logically have to if they have just rejected no deal.

but then its gets very unpredictable - the EU will not want to give a short extension just to allow may to keep trying to get her deal through (which is exactly what she will do given the opportunity) - so may insist that an extension is reliant on a new deal that can get through the commons (soft brexit with customs union) a 2nd ref or a general election.

a cross party soft brexit deal - looks like the most politically feasible - as it is probably the only form of brexit that could get through the commons - but it would split the tory party - as well as it meaning may has to give up her "red lines".

a 2nd ref - will be resisted by many tory mps (and others) and would mean may having to u-turn on something she repeatedly and categorically ruled out. and it could well split the tory party.

a general election - would mean the tories fighting an election whilst hopelessly divided and most of hte party loath to have May leading the campaign. They could have a leadership contest first - but that could split could split the tory party as it would likely be a brexiteer who wins. although labour have problems if there was a general election as to their brexit policy - and the wrecking potential of the tinge.

Im going for a general election as what we end up with - but with a large side of order of "fuck knows"

 

[cupid_stunt]

 

[ska invita]

I think May is prepared to go Norwegian...
Lab and Con don't really fancy 2nd ref if at all possible

 

[SpackleFrog]

so - potential crunch for may next.
looks like her deal will get decisely rejected - again.
that means commons then vote on weather to go with no deal - and all bar 50 brexiteer headbangers will vote no to no deal.
but then its a vote on weather to ask for an extension - which they logically have to if they have just rejected no deal.

but then its gets very unpredictable - the EU will not want to give a short extension just to allow may to keep trying to get her deal through (which is exactly what she will do given the opportunity) - so may insist that an extension is reliant on a new deal that can get through the commons (soft brexit with customs union) a 2nd ref or a general election.

Option 1 looks like the most politically feasible - as it is probably the only form of brexit that could get through the commons - but it would split the tory party - as well as it meaning may has to give up her "red lines".

Option 2 - will be resisted by many tory mps (and others) and would mean may having to u-turn on something she repeatedly and categorically ruled out. and it could well split the tory party.

Option 3 - would mean the tories fighting an election whilst hopelessly divided and most of hte party loath to have May leading the campaign. They could have a leadership contest first - but that could split could split the tory party as it would likely be a brexiteer who wins.

Im going for a general election as what we end up with - but with a large side of order of "fuck knows"

Props on the public poll - Pickers will be pleased. But where is the "kick the can down the road forever" option? Or Extension to A50? Or just cancel it?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Props on the public poll - Pickers will be pleased. But where is the "kick the can down the road forever" option? Or Extension to A50? Or just cancel it?

I doubt Pickers will care, as they haven't posted in months.

# Pickman's model

 

[Wookey]

Or just cancel it?

Imagine.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Imagine.

I can imagine. Not sure you can.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

needs a 'none of the above' / 'various combinations of the above' option

I think May is prepared to go Norwegian...

as in norwegian blue?

 

[Kaka Tim]

added "other" "cancelled" and "mays deal rejected after short extension" options

 

[Wookey]

I can imagine. Not sure you can.

Imagine the Tories cancelling Brexit. No, I can't. That's not a realistic option.

 

[Kaka Tim]

the trouble is - every option seems unfeasible - but one of them has to happen.

 

[chilango]

Delay, close eyes, hope for the best, from all sides I reckon.

 

[Yossarian]

 

[Yossarian]

 

[Pickman's model]

Queen wrests control from parliament, revokes a.50

 

[SpackleFrog]

added "other" "cancelled" and "mays deal rejected after short extension" options

Thanks. I've gone with Other - Kick the Can Down The Road Until The End of Time

 

[SpackleFrog]

Imagine the Tories cancelling Brexit. No, I can't. That's not a realistic option.

They can't deliver Brexit either.

 

[SpookyFrank]

the trouble is - every option seems unfeasible - but one of them has to happen.

There's always the emergency escape option: flip the board over, accuse everyone else of cheating, run up to your room and sulk until bedtime.

 

[Poot]

There's always the emergency escape option: flip the board over, accuse everyone else of cheating, run up to your room and sulk until bedtime.

That implies a level of pragmatism that I just can't believe will be shown. I think the whole thing's going to be a bit more like a sort of wet fart. I mean, that option wasn't in the poll but that's what I'd choose.

 

[Libertad]

Tuesday: Parliament rejects May's deal
Wednesday: Parliament rejects no deal
Thursday: Parliament rejects extension to A50

Nowhere to go but leave without a deal on 29th. Job's a good'un.

 

[Voley]

I'm still holding out hope for the 'Then I woke up and it was all a dream' option.

 

[Voley]

Extension to Article 50 seems most likely to me atm though. Quite how it'll pan out eventually - fuck knows.

 

[Supine]

Feeling more positive about remaining. Hope we do as i'm working in Germany a fair bit at the moment.

Company I work with in Switzerland are worried about working with UK engineers as there is talk about a limit on numbers starting next month

 

[sleaterkinney]

You forgot: Revolution against the bourgeois

 

[rekil]

 

[Gerry1time]

My gut feeling is May's deal is voted down, no deal is voted down, an extension is voted for, May resigns (after visit from men in grey suits) and the tories call a snap general election. A few reasons;

- May has already stopped being in charge, probably long ago. The only reason she still is is that nobody else wants to be with this mess going on, same reason she was made leader in the first place. If all her work has now finally, indisputably run its course, then there's finally a window to take over and claim a clean slate to start again.

- Assuming voter registration levels are still lower amongst younger rather than older people, then there's an inherent tory / brexit advantage to go to a GE as quickly and unexpectedly as possible.

- Labour are more of a mess right now than they've been for a while, certainly more than they were at the last GE.

- Only two things will break this deadlock, a GE or a 2nd referendum, and politicians still seem to believe the nonsense that a 2nd referendum would cause civil unrest. Or at least they find it convenient to seem to believe it.

There have been murmurings about tory preparation for a second GE for a while now. Where the pieces will end up after it though, who knows.

 

[Libertad]

My gut feeling is May's deal is voted down, no deal is voted down, an extension is voted for, May resigns (after visit from men in grey suits) and the tories call a snap general election. A few reasons;

- May has already stopped being in charge, probably long ago. The only reason she still is is that nobody else wants to be with this mess going on, same reason she was made leader in the first place. If all her work has now finally, indisputably run its course, then there's finally a window to take over and claim a clean slate to start again.

- Assuming voter registration levels are still lower amongst younger rather than older people, then there's an inherent tory / brexit advantage to go to a GE as quickly and unexpectedly as possible.

- Labour are more of a mess right now than they've been for a while, certainly more than they were at the last GE.

- Only two things will break this deadlock, a GE or a 2nd referendum, and politicians still seem to believe the nonsense that a 2nd referendum would cause civil unrest. Or at least they find it convenient to seem to believe it.

There have been murmurings about tory preparation for a second GE for a while now. Where the pieces will end up after it though, who knows.

The vermin would have to elect another leader before announcing a GE.

 

[Supine]

I still think may is a remainer and she is taking it to the brink before letting it cool off.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Tuesday: Parliament rejects May's deal
Wednesday: Parliament rejects no deal
Thursday: Parliament rejects extension to A50

Nowhere to go but leave without a deal on 29th. Job's a good'un.

or

Thursday : parliament agrees extension to A50
Friday : EU says 'piss off' in a variety of languages

 

[Crispy]

But would a GE result in a parliamentary majority for any kind of Brexit/Breentry? Feels like a very long winded way to end up right back where they started