Batley and Spen by-election

[belboid]

You don’t really need much analysis to show why Galloway lost.

(aah, I see)

 

[planetgeli]

The opposition are not meant to just about hold on in a by-election. The electoral system of FPTP has delivered a small breathing space to Labour because under that system a win is indeed a win. But it doesn't feel anything like 'the start' or that 'Labour is back'. FPTP aside this is a terrible result for Labour (and bad for the Tories too, who undoubtedly expected to win). Downward trend is downward and there's no walking away from that.

 

[Pickman's model]

You don’t really need much analysis to show why Galloway lost.

(aah, I see)

Galloway more ah you see

 

[Calamity1971]

Good analysis here

 

[DJWrongspeed]

But it doesn't feel anything like 'the start' or that 'Labour is back'. FPTP aside this is a terrible result for Labour (and for the Tories too). Downward trend is downward and there's no walking away from that.

Agree things aren't great for Labour but is it necessarily a downward trend here. If Galloway hadn't stood for example? he picked up quite a big vote share.

 

[Serene]

Boris has called Batley and Spen voters a bunch of ungrateful Northern Bastárds. He said he is redirectng HS2 through it, now, and cutting funding there. That place is dead, dead, dead, now, he said. Galloway agreed with Bojo.

 

[Argonia]

Boris has called Batley and Spen voters a bunch of ungrateful Northern Bastárds. He said he is redirectng HS2 through it, now, and cutting funding there. That place is dead, dead, dead, now, he said. Galloway agreed with Bojo.

Have you got a link to his anti-northern sentiment?

 

[MickiQ]

Agree things aren't great for Labour but is it necessarily a downward trend here. If Galloway hadn't stood for example? he picked up quite a big vote share.

We'll never know how many of Galloway's fairly impressive vote share were Labour voters who deserted them for him thus reducing their margin or were Tory voters deserting them for him and thus denying them yet another victory.
Either way it's a shit result for Labour whichever way they try to paint it. In 2019 (which was Labours worst GE in decades) they held it by 3500 votes, 9000 votes in 2017 and 6000 votes in 2015.

 

[kebabking]

gree things aren't great for Labour but is it necessarily a downward trend here. If Galloway hadn't stood for example? he picked up quite a big vote share.

He did, but you could easily look at it the other way - how many were fully in meh... territory over Sir Keith's joyous and magnificent leadership, but who simply could not stand by while the Cunt Galloway spread his poison?

In GE those same people, absent Galloway's odious countenance, might well stay at home.

It also looks to me like a lot of Lib Dem's voters went for Ledbeater - though I take the view that BE's, and particularly this BE have such a microclimate that distilling much on the wider political weather is somewhere between difficult and impossible. That said, I can't really see how anyone could argue that labour are in deep trouble....

 

[PR1Berske]

Have you got a link to his anti-northern sentiment?

I suspect we're dealing with an attempt at satire.

 

[Serene]

I suspect we're dealing with an attempt at satire.

OK I made it up. Yes its satire. Its funny because it is likely true.

 

[Serene]

Have you got a link to his anti-northern sentiment?

OK I made it up. Yes its satire. Its funny because it is likely true.

 

[planetgeli]

Agree things aren't great for Labour but is it necessarily a downward trend here. If Galloway hadn't stood for example? he picked up quite a big vote share.

It's all supposition but I would surmise Galloway took most of his votes from Labour. However, this doesn't mean they would have turned out for Labour if Galloway hadn't been there - much more likely they would have stayed at home.

Labour fielded an emotive candidate and that can't be underestimated in their win. I think many 'voted for Kim' as opposed to 'for Labour'. And at the final count, a victory of just over 300, that may well have made the difference. I don't see it as any sort of vote for Starmer. He'll get trounced again fairly soon in a more 'normal' by-election.

 

[planetgeli]

That said, I can't really see how anyone could argue that labour are in deep trouble....

Surely you mean 'aren't'?

 

[chilango]

FFS

 

[two sheds]

and of course for hats

BBC Four - The Frost Report Is Back!, The Class Sketch

The famous 'class sketch' from 1960s satirical comedy series The Frost Report.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[kenny g]

Nice to see the Heritage Party came bottom with 33

Yes. Half the SDP which had half the monster raving loony

 

[Raheem]

Agree things aren't great for Labour but is it necessarily a downward trend here. If Galloway hadn't stood for example? he picked up quite a big vote share.

It's impossible to know how many pro-Brexit votes he took from from the Tories, compared to how many votes he took from Labour, but I wouldn't assume it was more of the latter. He may well have made the difference in Labour's favour.

 

[PR1Berske]

There have been four by-elections to this Parliament since 2019. Here are the cumulative votes for those parties at the 2019 general election and the by-elections so far (All my own work, errors likely.)

Vote	Percentage	Party (2019 GE)	Place	Party (by-elections)	Percentage	Vote
68,799	36.32	Conservative	1	Conservative	35.16	44,803
57,952	30.59	Labour	2	Labour	24.24	30,879
20,204	10.67	Lib Dem	3	Lib Dem	18.32	23,340
17,929	9.47	SNP	4	SNP	7.95	10,129
12,281	6.48	Brexit	5	Workers	6.49	8,264
6,432	3.40	Heavy Woollen Ind	6	Independent S. Lee	2.28	2,904
3,734	1.97	Greens E&W	7	Greens E&W	1.44	1,838
911	0.48	Ind J Bousfield	8	Reform	0.65	827
685	0.36	Scottish Greens	9	Yorkshire	0.64	816
494	0.26	Socialist Labour	10	Heritage	0.39	501

 

[brogdale]

Why are you putting them this way though? Anyone can look at the results and see that by the commonly understood way of presenting the figures - the way that allows easy comparison with previous results and other seats - Labour's vote share has declined by 7.4%, and the Tory vote share by 1.6%.

OK, the %s I put up represent the fall relative to the general reduction in vote that might be expected given the, characteristically, depressed turnout.

The respective falls of 13% (Lab) & 4% (Tory) beyond that explained by lower turnout give an indication of the comparable solidity/friability of the 'core' and/or disengagement from the party.

Put simply, the Tory vote held up with some limited evidence of switch to Galloway, whereas the Lab vote was markedly worse that turnout might explain.

That's all I was getting at and if it wasn't that helpful...then well...nothing lost, eh?

 

[kebabking]

FFS

We need a 'shit the fucking bed' emoji....

I can understand the personal relief of Starmer, and some very mixed and powerful emotions for Ledbeater, but the idea that this is any kind of victory for the party/movement/cause is just so crass as to be unbelievable.

 

[brogdale]

47% according to wikipedia - fairly typical, maybe on the high side

Some useful stuff on by-election turnout (1979-2019) here in this Commons Library pdf:

Turns out that mean turnout is 51.5% for Parliamentary by-elections, so B&S was not far off the average.

 

[Pickman's model]

FFS

To a glass of Chardonnay and a moan about how awful the oiks are no doubt

 

[killer b]

It's an above average turnout for modern by elections though, ie since that big drop you can see in the late 90s

 

[glitch hiker]

FFS

Is he trying look like Le Chiffre? (the villain from Casino Royale, or the amusing name of a porn star, I forget which)?

+1 MP, win!

Still, it's not a Tory and it's not Galloway.

 

[brogdale]

It's an above average turnout for modern by elections though, ie since that big drop you can see in the late 90s

Given the media attention and general hullabaloo, I was a tad surprised it wasn't higher. I suppose the substantial Labour stay-at-home element (which is fair enough really, what is there to vote for?) will have capped the total.

 

[glitch hiker]

Soon to be consumed .

If I'm honest, I don't really get the hatred for Owen Jones from the left. He's not a revolutionary, which sucks. But he's not the fiend some make him out to be. And he's not fucking racist cunt like Galloway the bigot bollock

 

[andysays]

We need a 'shit the fucking bed' emoji....

I can understand the personal relief of Starmer, and some very mixed and powerful emotions for Ledbeater, but the idea that this is any kind of victory for the party/movement/cause is just so crass as to be unbelievable.

Yeah, the only reason this is/can be portrayed as a genuine victory is because until very recently Labour were expected to lose, even by some of their own party workers I believe.

The fact they've somehow managed to avoid ignominious defeat with a margin of less than 1%, quite possibly saved by the ridiculous intervention of George Galloway, should really be nothing to celebrate.

 

[The39thStep]

If I'm honest, I don't really get the hatred for Owen Jones from the left. He's not a revolutionary, which sucks. But he's not the fiend some make him out to be. And he's not fucking racist cunt like Galloway the bigot bollock

Liked chavs and his book about the rich but he’s a political activist of the worst sort . Jumps ship at the turn of a hat and spends most of his time as a fixture talking to the various shades of the left .

 

[Leighsw2]

So much salt from Galloway I'm worried he'll get hypertension. But what point is he trying to convey in this bitter and petty tweet? Is it the LGBT flag and bisexuality that he thinks is damning or the identifying as a socialist and BLM supporter?

Very interested to see that Cee Cee is followed by Dave Nellist. Kudos!