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And next, Syria?

A good moment to dig out Vogue magazine's gushing article on Asma Assad. It was rapidly taken down and erased from the internet by Conde Naste, but some of us grabbed copies while we could. Please disseminate to your friends - it is beyond cringeworthy and well into disturbing.
 

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When anti-imperialism and anti- colonialism are hijacked by Islamism, as they have been in many places (see also Hamas, the Houthis), I find little space for optimism. :(

I agree. Back in the day at least the national liberation movements - no matter how flawed they turned out to be in power - were fighting for broadly supportable things like land reform, gender equality, social programs for the poor and the like. These Islamist groups are all, in varying degrees, committed to violent, patriarchal social structures informed by dogmatic nonsense. Grim.
 
Few are willing to predict the outcome yet due to the number of groups and external powers involved.

I note that one of the BBCs articles today highlights that, and also includes:

"The story is not written yet," cautions Marie Forestier, senior Syria advisor for the European Institute of Peace. She, and other informed observers who happened to be attending the annual Doha Forum, point out that it was another rebel group, recently named as the Southern Operations room, working with people living in the city, who surged into the capital. The ranks of this force are dominated by fighters from the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), who worked closely with western powers at the start of Syria's 2011 uprising

 
I looked so you don't have to. Apparently the rebels are in the pay of Israel.

Vanessa Beeley

In the pay of Israel and yet in the same sentence they should attack Israel 🤣

La Beeley said:
The Resistance is broken and I doubt it can be repaired but the extremist mercenaries in the pay of Israel will tell you they "support Palestine". Go on then, you are on the border now.
 
So does Syria get a new evil dictator, a Libyan style anarchy or a head chopping islamic theocracy?
'Libyan style anarchy' was actually a combination of local group rivalries mixed with external powers proxy efforts.

If external powers turn out to be the dominant factor in what happens next with Syria, I dont think there are too many clues to be gained from Libya. One of the major players is the same, Turkey, but their reasons for being involved and who their rivals are is very different in Syria. In Libya things on the external power front eventually simplified down to a Turkey vs Egypt story, and something of a stalemate. Relations between Turkey and Egypt are currently evolving positively on some other fronts, although its still too early to say what implications that has for Libya longer term. Other domestic Libyan rivalries still blow up at times and complicate the picture, and there have been fresh concerns on occasion in 2024 of a declining security situation, as well as a situation that had to be mediated when things blew up over the leadership of the central bank. The simplified Libya picture is still a story of two rival governments with an East-West split, with both of those finding self-serving reasons to prevent a new national election from taking place. However, some municipal elections were successfully conducted in 2024 on both sides of the country at the same time, although they still need to do the 2nd half of that election for the remaining municipalities.
 
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Syrians are still being broken out of Assad’s infamous Saydnaya prison — as each layer underground is being accessed with time. Extraordinary scenes.

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For the 1st time ever in Syria’s history, buses are used to take the detainees to their homes instead of using it to arrest them. These are the survivals of Sednaya prison known as the “human slaughter house.”

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The prisoners in Sednaya Prison can be seen through the cameras, but they have no idea what has happened in Syria. Rescue teams have not yet been able to reach them because the buildings are secret, protected by codes, and the locations of the gates are unknown! Hopefully, the experts who arrived with the Civil Defense @SyriaCivilDef will be able to uncover the hidden secrets of this human slaughterhouse, Sednaya Prison.

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The White Helmets has deployed 5 specialized emergency teams to Sednaya Prison to investigate hidden underground cells, reportedly holding detainees according to survivors. The teams consist of search and rescue units, wall-breaching specialists, iron door-opening crews, trained dog units, and medical responders. These teams are well trained and equipped to manage such complex operations.

2 teams arrived about an hour ago and have already begun their mission, accompanied by a guide familiar with the prison's layout. The remaining teams are expected to arrive gradually, delayed by challenging security conditions on the roads and severe traffic congestion.
 

Statement from The White Helmets (Syria Civil Defence) to the Syrian People on the Collapse of the Regime

We congratulate our resilient Syrian people on achieving freedom and liberation from decades of tyranny and injustice. After nearly fourteen years of suffering under the Assad regime, marked by killings, enforced disappearances, displacement, and the destruction of Syria's heritage and civilization, this historic moment signals the dawn of a new era rooted in citizenship, justice, and collective efforts to build a nation where justice and equality prevail.

The collapse of the oppressive regime is a significant milestone in the Syrian people's long struggle. It represents a pivotal step toward securing their rightful aspirations for freedom and dignity. This moment provides a historic chance to foster societal peace, preserve the unity of Syria's territories, strengthen communal harmony, and establish a foundation of justice and equality among all segments of Syrian society. It is an opportunity to build a state governed by the rule of law and inclusive institutions, embodying the hopes and dreams of the Syrian people.

The White Helmets (Syria Civil Defence), which has stood unwaveringly by the Syrian people in their demands for freedom and change, reaffirms its commitment to serving all Syrians impartially and adhering to the principles of humanitarian action. Our work is driven by the trust and confidence placed in us by the Syrian people.

In response to the growing humanitarian needs across all regions of Syria, The White Helmets is launching a work program to reach and support civilians in all accessible areas of Syria.

As we look ahead, we are developing strategies to empower communities, restore livelihoods, and rebuild critical infrastructure. These efforts aim to facilitate the return of displaced persons and refugees, alleviating their suffering and supporting their reintegration into society.

We firmly believe that justice is the cornerstone of lasting peace. The White Helmets pledges to uncover the truth about crimes committed against Syrians, ensure accountability for perpetrators, and prevent impunity. Only through justice can Syrians begin to heal and move toward a future of safety and peace.

Addressing the tragedies of the missing and the unidentified, we prioritize uncovering the fate of missing persons, identifying unknown remains, and investigating mass graves. These efforts are essential to healing the wounds of our nation.

We call on all Syrian parties, particularly armed groups, to protect civilians, uphold international humanitarian law, and refrain from political interference. The Syrian people have endured enough suffering under military rule. Furthermore, we urge the international community to support the Syrian people during this critical phase, enabling them to determine their future freely and democratically through a transparent and independent transitional process.

We appeal to the United Nations, its agencies, and donor countries to bolster local humanitarian workers and Syrian organizations to ensure effective emergency responses that address the escalating needs of returning residents. In addition, we emphasize the importance of launching projects that create job opportunities and advance economic development, providing a solid foundation for Syria’s recovery and growth.

This moment demands unity, resilience, and unwavering commitment to building a just and prosperous future for all Syrians. Together, we can turn the page and begin a new chapter of hope and progress.
 
The Live UA Map is saying Manbej has been taken by the Syrian National Army from the Kurds

YPG International is saying:
so we know a lot of you are waiting for news from Manbij front line, but take care that also a lot of false information is spread on the internet to create confusion. as soon as there is any credible/official information we can share, we will keep you updated!

The situation last night - map
Another Turkish-led offensive on Manbij ends in failure. A large assault on Arima and the northern axis, backed by artillery, airstrikes, and sleeper cells inside the city, has been crushed.

The SNA that slipped to the southern entrance have been trapped and eliminated.

eta:
YPG International
New reports about heavy clashes in the city of Manbij since last night:
️ a lot of UAV activity over city and surrounding area and dozens of drone strikes
️ Qereqozaq was targeted again, where Turkey already tried to destroy the bridge earlier
️ 14 mercenaries captured

Karim Franceschi
I know the terrain . The first international unit under my command held the line at Arima vs. the Turkish army. Five days ago, well before the SNA attacked Manbij, I made it clear: They may enter under air and artillery cover, but entering will be the end of them. Manbij stands.
 
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Within 48 hours, the narrative of the "Axis of Resistance" shifted from emphasizing the threat of terrorists taking over Syria to blaming Assad for "betraying" the Axis. According to this narrative, Assad did not fall b/c he was part of the Axis but b/c he defected from it.

Another part of the emerging narrative highlights the "Baathist" affiliation of Assad and equates the reins of the two Baath party branches in Iraq and Syria as if they were the same, despite decades of intense conflict between the two factions.
 
I agree. Back in the day at least the national liberation movements - no matter how flawed they turned out to be in power - were fighting for broadly supportable things like land reform, gender equality, social programs for the poor and the like. These Islamist groups are all, in varying degrees, committed to violent, patriarchal social structures informed by dogmatic nonsense. Grim.
What is utterly chilling is now the HTS have seized power, the government wants to remove their proscription as ‘terrorist’. Shows how utterly arbitrary and hypocritical these proscriptions are
 
Unconfirmed report from Zaina Erhaim
It seems that HTS has just prohibited its members from interfering in women’s outfits & looks “including asking them to cover up”!
The statement also confirms that personal freedom is a guaranteed right!
I am astonished.

eta: AP saying the same
 
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Israel and Turkey fanning the flames of sectarian conflict?

Rojin Mukriyan
Israel’s foreign minister’s rhetoric only creates more enemies and obstacles for the Kurds in Rojava. Has Israel provided any help to the Kurds in Rojava in any way yet? If you want to help the Kurds, put pressure on the U.S. to stop Turkish aggression against them. Otherwise, don’t create more headaches for the Kurds. Do not make more enemies in the region for the Kurds if you are not willing to engage in concrete actions to protect them.
 
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