And next, Syria?

[frogwoman]

The Syrian National Resistance: Liwa Khaybar

Al tamimi has a piece here on a pro government Syrian militia and describes this as part of the continuing 'militiafication' of the syrian regime. As morale etc worsens Assad is forced to rely on militias and foreign fighters increasingly.

 

[Casually Red]

I've admitted nothing, fool. It was in the article i linked to which also said that there was no overall armed rebel control of the town something you said was false. It also went on to state that the large influx was people fleeing fighting in a neighbouring town.

You have not addressed Twitter you have sidestepped it. Twitter can be used by anyone hence tweets from the Russian embassy here in the uk. Do you really not think that if there was a significant armed rebel presence in the town some government bod would be making hay out of it for propaganda purposes. I can find nothing in with that hashtag search to suggest that is the case so get back to me if you can.

Horseshit . The link you yourself posted states very clearly " Madaya is one of three rebel controlled towns ". Clear as day. It also states they've no interest in basic civil administration and leave the civilians to fend for themselves . Something you now claim means they dont ontrol the place. You're a troll and a fucking wanker. don't waste my time with this disingenous stream of rubbish any further.

 

[Casually Red]

The Syrian National Resistance: Liwa Khaybar

Al tamimi has a piece here on a pro government Syrian militia and describes this as part of the continuing 'militiafication' of the syrian regime. As morale etc worsens Assad is forced to rely on militias and foreign fighters increasingly.

With the Russian airforce engaged massively, regime change and western bombing pretty much ruled out , Kweres siege lifted after years of stalemate , Zahran Alloush and a host of other top jihadi commanders wiped out in a Syrian decapatitation strike , their forces advancing all over the place , latakia virtually secured, impending collapse on a string of rebel fronts I hardly think morale is worsening. Sounds like very wishful thinking . They've had the biggest morale boosts in years and there's more to come without a doubt.
People joining militias to fight alongside the army rather than against it is ...in any normal outlook on the world..a positive sign . All depends on how desperately some want to spin it I suppose .

 

[teqniq]

Horseshit . The link you yourself posted states very clearly " Madaya is one of three rebel controlled towns ". Clear as day. It also states they've no interest in basic civil administration and leave the civilians to fend for themselves . Something you now claim means they dont ontrol the place. You're a troll and a fucking wanker. don't waste my time with this disingenous stream of rubbish any further.

You claimed upthread that it was 'chock full of jihadis' your claims are directly contradicted by the Syria Direct article who claim the massive influx is due to civilians fleeing from fighting in another town further you provide no evidence whatsoever to back up your claim. There is no claim in the article that the rebels such as they may be 'have no interest'. The precise wording for the second time is

“there aren’t rebel factions to take charge and monitor the prices and keep the monopolists accountable.” The town is primarily run by the civilian council, not a particular rebel faction.

You do nothing to address the obvious signs of starvation as evidenced from the Raqqa is being silently slaughtered Twitter account or the many photos from the Twitter Madaya search. It is obvious that the regime is using starvation as a weapon and has done before and probably will do again, so who is being disingenuous here?

e2a you seem to be comfortable with this tactic the use of which has already been documented in other parts of Syria. The UN attempted to refer the regime:

Although Syria is not party to the International Criminal Court - which can prosecute war crimes - the United Nations Security Council has the power to refer cases.

Three Security Council resolutions condemning Assad have been vetoed by permanent member Russia, one of his strongest allies, and China, making a referral unlikely.

Two counties whose regimes are not exactly known for their unblemished record on human rights. As far as I am concerned this makes you along with them an apologist for war crimes.

Lastly you accuse me of trolling, I posted a link which you predictably disagreed with and attempted to rubbish, not with a great deal of success imo; you also became predictably abusive. Who is trolling here?

 

[frogwoman]

Joshua Landis has a new piece up about the five biggest developments in Syria in 2015. I skimmed it on the bus this morning and it's good IMO. It really goes into detail about the disintegration of the Syrian state, which ties in with other stuff I've been recently reading about the extent of the Syrian state's reliance on non-state actors such as militias and Iranian backed groups to maintain control on the ground.

The Ten Most Important Developments in Syria in 2015

Even though you can’t see it on a map, Assad has also lost strength in other ways in 2015. His primary source of power—apart from the military—was always the fact that he controlled the state, and along with it a number of institutions on which every Syrian family relies, including courts, police, public services, state-run businesses and banks, and a system of food and fuel subsidies. While it does not mean that the regime’s subjects love their president, it has allowed Assad to co-opt, control, and mobilize millions of Syrians in ways that the insurgents cannot. Owning the government also allows Assad to hold out the promise of continued central control, institutional rollback in the provinces, and coordinated reconstruction—i.e., some sort of plan for a post-war Syria.

For one thing, the Syrian army’s manpower deficit is turning into a major issue. Assad has mobilized his security apparatus to hunt down draft dodgers through house calls and flying checkpoints, in order to replenish thinning ranks. The main effect seems to have been to send a growing stream of seventeen and eighteen year old men across the border, often with their families in tow. They may or may not prefer the government over the rebels, it doesn’t matter. In a Syria at peace they would have grumblingly gone for their one-and-a-half years of army training. But as things stand, they know full well that army service has no time limit: discharge is equal to death. As it turns out, most Syrians have no intention of giving their lives in service of Bashar al-Assad and draft dodging is now pervasive. Tensions have become so great that in the Druze-majority Sweida region in the south, the government apparently decided in 2015 to abstain from normal recruitment to the Syrian Arab Army out of fear of provoking a local rebellion. Druze men can instead report for home defense units, on the understanding that they won’t be shipped away to die in distant Hassakeh or Latakia. A similar arrangement reportedly applies in Aleppo and they seem to be creeping into other regions as well.

The decay of the central government, the army, state institutions, and the Syrian economy more generally means that Assad is growing less credible as the steward of all or part of post-war Syria, even for those inclined to imagine him as such. For years, the Syrian government has spent considerable resources running basic governmental functions even in areas outside of its control—for example by paying salaries to government workers, teachers, and hospital staff in some opposition-held regions. As a consequence, many insurgent areas are paradoxically enough dependent on regular payments and institutional services from the government they’re fighting.

But in many other cases, the central government simply seems to be paying for services in areas it does not control. This is not a humanitarian measure and neither is it mere bureaucratic inertia. (Sometimes, the government shuts down services and stops food deliveries as a means of collective punishment.) Rather, it appears to result from a strategic choice to maintain a skeletal grid of institutions in as many regions as possible. That’s a core interest for the Syrian state as such, but also for Assad personally, who hopes to win the war by safeguarding the government’s institutional base and making it contingent on the continued existence of his regime.

Given current trends, it seems unlikely that the central government will be able to keep these payments up forever. In so far as the current rulers of the state are forced to chose, they will no doubt prioritize loyalist areas.

The entire piece is worth a read but thats the most interesting part IMO

he also talks about russian intervention

Finally, one must note the risks involved in raising the stakes. If the Geneva III talks falter and Assad fails to achieve a decisive breakthrough in 2016, then what? Russia can hardly pull back, now that Assad has grown dependent on its support, not without losing face and seeing its investments frittered away. And what then, Mr. Putin: will you just keep going with no end in sight, or will you escalate even further? In other words, Russia is now at risk of getting stuck in an intractable conflict without an exit strategy and without clear political gain. It would be like Saudi Arabia in Yemen, but on a much bigger scale. If Putin ends up sending ground troops into battle, the risks and costs involved would rise considerably—but even that might not be enough to bring about a Kremlin-friendly conclusion to the Syrian mess.

 

[teqniq]

Rebel negotiator: Waer truce ‘about to go up in flames’

 

[NoXion]

Joshua Landis has a new piece up about the five biggest developments in Syria in 2015. I skimmed it on the bus this morning and it's good IMO. It really goes into detail about the disintegration of the Syrian state, which ties in with other stuff I've been recently reading about the extent of the Syrian state's reliance on non-state actors such as militias and Iranian backed groups to maintain control on the ground.

The Ten Most Important Developments in Syria in 2015









The entire piece is worth a read but thats the most interesting part IMO

he also talks about russian intervention

My Avira installation says this is a malware site.

 

[teqniq]

My Avira installation says this is a malware site.

Hmmm it loads ok here but I am running OS X

 

[bluescreen]

My Avira installation says this is a malware site.

McAfee ditto. There didn't use to be a problem with Tom Pride.

ETA: oops, sorry, wrong thread. But weird how 'convenient' it is to get the malware warning.

 

[frogwoman]

RAF bomb raids in Syria dismissed as 'non-event'

 

[bluescreen]

RAF bomb raids in Syria dismissed as 'non-event'

Interesting, where that's coming from?

 

[laptop]

Interesting, where that's coming from?

"Britain’s air campaign in Syria so far is basically a non-event which can have had little, if any, impact on the balance of power on the ground."

Jon Lake, a military aviation expert

I know him not...

 

[Casually Red]

You claimed upthread that it was 'chock full of jihadis' your claims are directly contradicted by the Syria Direct article who claim the massive influx is due to civilians fleeing from fighting in another town further you provide no evidence whatsoever to back up your claim. There is no claim in the article that the rebels such as they may be 'have no interest'. The precise wording for the second time is You do nothing to address the obvious signs of starvation as evidenced from the Raqqa is being silently slaughtered Twitter account or the many photos from the Twitter Madaya search. It is obvious that the regime is using starvation as a weapon and has done before and probably will do again, so who is being disingenuous here?

e2a you seem to be comfortable with this tactic the use of which has already been documented in other parts of Syria. The UN attempted to refer the regime:



Two counties whose regimes are not exactly known for their unblemished record on human rights. As far as I am concerned this makes you along with them an apologist for war crimes.

Lastly you accuse me of trolling, I posted a link which you predictably disagreed with and attempted to rubbish, not with a great deal of success imo; you also became predictably abusive. Who is trolling here?

Please just cock off you trolling arsehole. You'll go to any lengths for an Internet "win"

For fucks sake

Just fuck off you terry and june embarrassment.

 

[Casually Red]

My Avira installation says this is a malware site.

Yes because this thread and the Ukraine one go intermittently mental .it might have something to do with " cool " posters reporting other posters to the security services as paid Russian agents . An accusation you'll find casually flung around a number of threads by a number of people here, including self professed anarchists . And liked by a number more . Including the same.
Take your pick but plainly one or more of them is bringing that heat down. And have been for well over a year . On at least 2 threads . Not just this one

 

[frogwoman]

Britain's controversial air campaign in Syria has been branded a “non-event” after it emerged that the Air Force has carried out only one attack on the country in the last four weeks.

Since MPs voted for war over Syria on 1 December, more than a month ago, RAF Tornados and Typhoons have mounted only three strike missions – all in the first five days of the operation.

No RAF manned strikes have been conducted on any Syrian target since 6 December, 28 days ago, it can be revealed. The only further strike was made on Christmas Day by an unmanned, remote-controlled Reaper drone, bringing the total number of British strike missions to four.





“Britain’s air campaign in Syria so far is basically a non-event which can have had little, if any, impact on the balance of power on the ground.”
Jon Lake, a military aviation expert
http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?tex...non-event.html?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_pq_tw_20150423
http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?...non-event.html?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_pq_fb_20150423


Figures released by US Central Command suggest that during their missions the Tornados and Typhoons may have dropped as few as 19 bombs.

There we go, symbolic and absolutely no effect other than killing a few people, pissing off others and making the UK even more of a target than it is already. 'International brigades' this aint.

 

[J Ed]

There we go, symbolic and absolutely no effect other than killing a few people, pissing off others and making the UK even more of a target than it is already. 'International brigades' this aint.

Honestly even the government's own assessment the RAF's potential contribution basically indicated that this would be the case.

 

[NoXion]

Yes because this thread and the Ukraine one go intermittently mental .it might have something to do with " cool " posters reporting other posters to the security services as paid Russian agents . An accusation you'll find casually flung around a number of threads by a number of people here, including self professed anarchists . And liked by a number more . Including the same.
Take your pick but plainly one or more of them is bringing that heat down. And have been for well over a year .

What has any of that got to do with what I said?

 

[teqniq]

Please just cock off you trolling arsehole. You'll go to any lengths for an Internet "win"

For fucks sake

Just fuck off you terry and june embarrassment.

Lol that's a bit like the pot calling the kettle black i suspect, though for my part it's not about winning. It's about your dishonesty and evasiveness when confronted with unpleasant facts that don't fit in with your worldview,

I like the Terry and June bit though, that made me smile.

I think you will find that Noxion is talking about the site that Froggie linked to, not this one (at least that's the way I took it) which makes your post look somewhat paranoid to say the least.

Speaking of your worldview someone on Twitter posted this article yesterday from 2011. It outlines the US's imperialistic ambitions in the middle east with particular regard to Syria. I think you might find there are a number of points we might agree upon. It does not however make Assad out to be a benevolent leader, which is something you might have difficulty with. It is published by Al-Jazeera which isn't going to sit very well with your opinions on media sources either.

 

[frogwoman]

Vice News has a new documentary out on al nusra, not watched it yet though.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Yes because this thread and the Ukraine one go intermittently mental .it might have something to do with " cool " posters reporting other posters to the security services as paid Russian agents . An accusation you'll find casually flung around a number of threads by a number of people here, including self professed anarchists . And liked by a number more . Including the same.
Take your pick but plainly one or more of them is bringing that heat down. And have been for well over a year . On at least 2 threads . Not just this one

Threads that you're on.

 

[ViolentPanda]

What has any of that got to do with what I said?

Nowt.
It's deflection, accusing other people of being touts.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[8115]

This news about people starving is just terrible to watch.

This is being used as a weapon of war by Assad and others, right?

 

[teqniq]

Pretty much.

 

[butchersapron]

From Kradjis:

A new low *even* for the Shiite-sectarian death-squad named 'Hezbollah'

(ex-so-called 'Resistance' group):

Hania Mourtada: "Supporters of Hezbollah in Lebanon and elsewhere are

taunting the starving people of Madaya with the hashtag

‫#‏متضامن_مع_حصار_مضايا which means ‪#‎I_Support_the_siege_of_Madaya.

They are taking pictures of food and appetizing meals and posting them

on social media with the hashtag just to taunt civilians dying from

starvation. This is a whole new low, even for Hezbollah supporters.


If you want to get a sense of the twisted mentality of these people,

check out the Arabic hashtag. People in Madaya are so hungry they are in

excruciating pain especially infants, children and the elderly."

 

[butchersapron]

+Lebanon: Shiaa figures, publish what was named the "Madaya document",
where they reject the siege on Madaya and Hezbolla's fighting in Syria,
and they compared the "siege logic" to tactics used by Israelis against
Arabs and Palestinians for decades, and refuse the sectarian
displacement of population practiced by regime. They announce their full
solidarity with the Syrian's demanding freedom and refuse that the
responsibility of Hezbollah's to be put on the shiaa as a whole.

 

[teqniq]

Pact aims to help Syrians on both sides dying from hunger

 

[Casually Red]

Well well well

'Starving Syria child' revealed as south Lebanon girl

 

[Casually Red]

And reverse image search on those harrowing " photos from madaya " throws up...well well well

Interview with that Lebanese girl and her parents who's photo was used by the rebels . Robbed off Facebook , and not for the first time either. Also a good money spinner for jihadists collecting donations for "aid " . Will be a bit hard to explain how they get the aid into the town if it's under siege as they claim.

 

[Geri]

Kafranbel activist Raed Fares and journalist Hadi Alabdullah have been captured by Jabhat al-Nusra, it is being reported this morning.

Bad news