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Afghanistan: Mission Accomplished

two sheds said:
Training and arming the Afghan army? Don't know whether that would make any difference though.
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We've been doing that in various forms since 2002.

There's huge variation in quality and motivation, every unit and area is different, and there are competing power structures behind them.

There's pretty much no operational depth in the ANA - they have a fighting capability, which in some units/areas is excellent, and in others little more than dandelion heads on the wind - but they simply don't do things like technical support, so all the helicopters the US gives them break down after a few weeks and never fly again.

Rampant corruption doesn't help.

There's a much bigger elephant in the room which has been talked about since 2002: is there such a thing as Afghanistan the country, a state/nation/society with wide buy-in, or is just a place on a map between other countries?

I verge more towards the latter than the former, but I also see a very well developed sense - as last displayed in late 2001 - of sensing which way the wind is blowing, and thinking that it's better to live to fight another day.

Last time I was in Kabul I met lots of young, educated people who see themselves as Afghans just as I see myself as British, but out in Helmand, or Kandahar or Khost, I met few Afghans, but most simply had no visceral feeling of being part of the same society as people in Herat or whatever.
 
kebabking said:
We've been doing that in various forms since 2002.

There's huge variation in quality and motivation, every unit and area is different, and there are competing power structures behind them.

There's pretty much no operational depth in the ANA - they have a fighting capability, which in some units/areas is excellent, and in others little more than dandelion heads on the wind - but they simply don't do things like technical support, so all the helicopters the US gives them break down after a few weeks and never fly again.

Rampant corruption doesn't help.

There's a much bigger elephant in the room which has been talked about since 2002: is there such a thing as Afghanistan the country, a state/nation/society with wide buy-in, or is just a place on a map between other countries?

I verge more towards the latter than the former, but I also see a very well developed sense - as last displayed in late 2001 - of sensing which way the wind is blowing, and thinking that it's better to live to fight another day.

Last time I was in Kabul I met lots of young, educated people who see themselves as Afghans just as I see myself as British, but out in Helmand, or Kandahar or Khost, I met few Afghans, but most simply had no visceral feeling of being part of the same society as people in Herat or whatever.
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you only need to see how people in north and south london view each other to know the attitude you describe has echoes here
 
Sasaferrato said:
I think it goes without saying, we should never have been there in the first place.
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No, I've more time for the justification for attacking Afghanistan than I do Iraq , however, if the taliban had been awarded more faux respect and diplomatic jaw-jaw caried on longer before, their then attitude to opium farming the drought would have fucked them.
 
kebabking said:
out in Helmand, or Kandahar or Khost, I met few Afghans, but most simply had no visceral feeling of being part of the same society as people in Herat or whatever.
Click to expand...

At least the US/UK kept their word about it not being a nation-building exercise.

I feel sorry for anybody who made the mistake of working for them and will now face Taliban reprisals - after 20 years of involvement, not counting the years supporting the mujahedeen against the Soviets, they're walking away saying "Hey, it was broken when we got here."
 
Yossarian said:
In the US, veterans are calling it "Vietstan."

www.reuters.com

'We lost': Some U.S. veterans say blood spilled in Afghanistan was wasted

Jason Lilley was a special operations forces Marine Raider who fought in multiple battles in Iraq and Afghanistan during America's longest war.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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"We should avoid war at all costs," Lilley said. "Don't rush into the racket of war, into the machine of making money, contracts. A lot of people made a lot of money off of this."

He said it took him years to let go of his anger.

"I mean I knew what I was getting into, I mean I grew up on 'Rambo.' I wanted to honor my family in the sense my grandfather fought in World War Two, I wanted to go down that same route and do the selfless thing, but it turns into reality quickly."
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Wimmer said of Afghanistan: "By any metric you choose to measure it, it was a fruitless effort. Getting rid of al Qaeda or the Taliban - we didn't succeed. Increased peace and prosperity for the Afghan people? We didn't succeed.

"In the process we sacrificed a lot of wealth, we sacrificed a lot of time, we sacrificed a lot of lives, not just American lives, but coalition lives and especially Afghan lives, to walk away essentially having accomplished not a lot. That's a really hard thing to stomach."
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Canada has started a new resettlement program for interpreters and others whose lives will be at risk as the Taliban marches to victory. The catch - they only have 3 days to apply.

But prospective applicants for the resettlement program learned today that they have just three days to submit their applications, which require the completion of multiple online forms and the scanning of documents.
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the only question is how long it will take the Taliban to take over the whole country, I think. Looking like they could take Laskhar Gah and Kandahar this month. The Afghan army seems to be disintegrating.
 
Yossarian said:
Canada has started a new resettlement program for interpreters and others whose lives will be at risk as the Taliban marches to victory. The catch - they only have 3 days to apply.



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Canada pulled out of Afghanistan back in 2014, so there are less interpreters.

Yoss seemed to be concerned that the three day window was too small.

Last week, the federal government announced that those wishing to come to Canada only had 72 hours to do apply, which Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan later said was a “mistake.”

"This is a crisis, there's people's lives at risk and there's no time for half-baked plans," retired corporal Tim Laidler, now executive director of the Institute for Veterans Education and Transition at the University of British Columbia, told The Canadian Press earlier this week.
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First flight of Afghan refugees who helped CAF arrives in Canada

The first 'of a number of flights' carrying Afghan refugees who helped Canadian military personnel while deployed in Afghanistan has arrived in Canada.
beta.ctvnews.ca beta.ctvnews.ca

The first “of a number of flights” carrying Afghan refugees who helped Canadian military personnel while deployed in Afghanistan has arrived in Canada.

In a statement on Wednesday evening, the federal government did not disclose how many refugees were on an evacuation flight that landed in Canada, but that more flights will be arriving in the coming days and weeks.

“We committed to do right by the Afghans who supported Canada’s mission in Afghanistan. With the arrival of the first resettled Afghan refugees in Canada, we are making good on that promise,” a spokesperson for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada wrote in a news release.

The Afghans arriving in Canada helped the Canadian military during a 10-year deployment in the country during the Afghanistan war, but are now in danger due to a resurgent Taliban threat in the area.
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The Canadian government said that each of the refugees have met the “eligibility, admissibility and security screenings” required to enter Canada. They have all been tested for COVID-19 and will follow Canada’s quarantine requirements.

“To help the Afghans adjust to life in Canada, service provider organizations in communities across Canada are preparing to welcome them,” the statement read. “Settlement organizations will help them to find permanent housing, language training, a job and connections with established immigrants and Canadians and provide them with the information that they need about life in Canada.”
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Flavour said:
the only question is how long it will take the Taliban to take over the whole country, I think. Looking like they could take Laskhar Gah and Kandahar this month. The Afghan army seems to be disintegrating.
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I read recently the Taliban are assassinating Afghan air force pilots so wouldn't be surprised if they're doing something similar to army officers or their families. The Taliban will be able to claim mission accomplished within a few months I reckon
 
David Clapson said:
There'll also be plenty of US trainers/contractors/weapons/special forces to defend the airport and other installations which the Americans care about, e.g. dams, and to protect American civilians working for aid and development agencies. S
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+ "air suport" which i guess means drones dropping bombs
 
Easily by Xmas I reckon but obviously dependant on level of external support and hardware provided by USA. In a previous instalment of the Afghan conflict, the incumbent held onto Kabul for the thick end of 3 years after the USSR departure
 
There's a lot of money tied up in Kabul. Property values rocketed when Nato were there. Aid agencies were charged astonishing rents...higher than London. The Afghan diaspora invested huge sums in building projects. They had faith that the country had a future. What with Western fears about Afghanistan becoming a base for international terrorists again, I find it hard to imagine that the US will abandon Kabul and the airport. I think they'll find an excuse to garrison it. There are lots of expensive fortifications already there. It would be very galling to just give them to the Talibs. And if that looks likely, all the educated Afghans will leave and make a new life elsewhere. Lots of them are already leaving.
 
The Afghan govt on the brink of letting the militias loose. I suspect, this time around, that the potential Northern Alliance will not form. Not only that, they will get demolished.
 
TopCat said:
The Afghan govt on the brink of letting the militias loose. I suspect, this time around, that the potential Northern Alliance will not form. Not only that, they will get demolished.
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Yeh, I think this will be an utter disaster, not sure there are any inspirational leaders like Ahmad Shah Massoud opposing the Taliban now
 
David Clapson said:
There's a lot of money tied up in Kabul. Property values rocketed when Nato were there. Aid agencies were charged astonishing rents...higher than London. The Afghan diaspora invested huge sums in building projects. They had faith that the country had a future. What with Western fears about Afghanistan becoming a base for international terrorists again, I find it hard to imagine that the US will abandon Kabul and the airport. I think they'll find an excuse to garrison it. There are lots of expensive fortifications already there. It would be very galling to just give them to the Talibs. And if that looks likely, all the educated Afghans will leave and make a new life elsewhere. Lots of them are already leaving.
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Filed alongside the Americans will never let Saigon fall
 
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