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Afghanistan: Mission Accomplished

Machiavelli - Whenever those states which have been acquired as stated have been accustomed to live under their own laws and in freedom, there are three courses for those who wish to hold them:

the first is to ruin them, the next is to reside there in person, the third is to permit them to live under their own laws, drawing a tribute, and establishing within it an oligarchy which will keep it friendly to you.


No-one comes close to USA's power. American spending on the military is larger than the GDP of some big countries.

I wonder how much China needs Afghanistan for the Belt and Road Initiative?
Michael Hudson used the same quote a couple of days ago talking about similar issues in regard to competition with China
 
First half hour here has a good interview with a journalist in afghanistan, Ali M Latifi.


too long didnt watch:
things have deteriorated in the last two years, worse than ever,
the western regions bordering with Iran is full of Islamic State
the government control Kabul and some other cities, but thats it
fear of full blown civil war is real, depends a lot on how the proxy war shapes up between US, Iran and Pakistan
 
I used to really keep up with this stuff when I read the paper newspapers, even if it was the Guardian their coverage was pretty good and I'd supplement with the BBC. Now I rely on the website and I have not a clue, barely read the news to be honest, too busy reading Life and Style, talk about manufacturing consent. It's really quite striking how little I know about current affairs now, just wonder if that's the same for other people.
 
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I used to really keep up with this stuff when I read the paper newspapers, even if it was the Guardian their coverage was pretty good and I'd supplement with the BBC. Now I rely on the website and I have not a clue, barely read the news to be honest, too busy reading Life and Style. It's really quite striking how little I know about current affairs now, just wonder if that's the same for other people.
A lot of people find the news too depressing these days. Covid stress and misery has a lot to do with it, plus Brexit fatigue. Pretty soon IS will be killing journalists in Afghanistan, so there won't be much news from there to upset us.
 
The one good thing about this and the Iraq disaster is that it slightly reduces the credibility of Americans who argue for invasions of Iran, North Korea etc. But only slightly. Too many Americans have a naive view that a Bad country needs invading, because Justice and Democracy and God. The logical conclusion is that all Bad countries must have nukes to keep the Americans out.

North Korea have nukes and delivery systems that can reach DC. Even discounting the nukes, they have a huge and well-disciplined armed force, nothing like the demoralised Iraqi Army that the Yanks rolled over two decades ago. Oh, and they have massed artillery batteries aimed at Seoul right now that can level the entire city within hours. Plus it would drag in the Chinese by basically taking the Korean War off pause.

Anyone arguing for the invasion of North Korea has no credibility to reduce in the first place. I doubt that the Yank brass has any real desire to stick their cock in that particular hornet's nest.
 
One of the only benefits of the Afghanistan war is that a generation in the US and the UK will have grown up seeing war as a pointless drawn-out waste of lives - people who were in their young teens when Western countries got involved are now past military age, and nobody much under 30 will have clear memories of a time before the quagmire.
 
I used to really keep up with this stuff when I read the paper newspapers, even if it was the Guardian their coverage was pretty good and I'd supplement with the BBC. Now I rely on the website and I have not a clue, barely read the news to be honest, too busy reading Life and Style, talk about manufacturing consent. It's really quite striking how little I know about current affairs now, just wonder if that's the same for other people.
i can relate...what i hate is how a news item comes into focus and is then abandoned...id quite like to know whats happening with scottish fishing for example....zero coverage after a flurry of interest. but totally, considering this is a british war you might think even an occasional look back into the charred remains of Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan would be warranted by the mainstream media.
 
One of the only benefits of the Afghanistan war is that a generation in the US and the UK will have grown up seeing war as a pointless drawn-out waste of lives - people who were in their young teens when Western countries got involved are now past military age, and nobody much under 30 will have clear memories of a time before the quagmire.
I was 17 but feel if I hadn't made effort to vaguely keep up I'd not really know what was happening at all. There have been long periods of time when it just hasn't been news. The Iraq war knocked it out of the news for a while and with the misery wrought by 2008 and the Tories it has all been quiet other than the occasional peace talk merry-go-round or posturing.
 
North Korea have nukes and delivery systems that can reach DC. Even discounting the nukes, they have a huge and well-disciplined armed force, nothing like the demoralised Iraqi Army that the Yanks rolled over two decades ago. Oh, and they have massed artillery batteries aimed at Seoul right now that can level the entire city within hours. Plus it would drag in the Chinese by basically taking the Korean War off pause.

Anyone arguing for the invasion of North Korea has no credibility to reduce in the first place. I doubt that the Yank brass has any real desire to stick their cock in that particular hornet's nest.
All that and for what gain to the invaders anyway? North Korea is not only zero threat if left alone, it actually serves as a little morality tale to scare young capitalists with.
 
It remains to be seen wether Biden will actually follow through on this and fully pull out. Will he actually pull out the 18,000 federal contactors, special ops and CIA people? I'll believe it when I see it. Previous presidents have promised to do this and gone back on it (Obama and Trump).

Even if he does pull out of Afghanistan he seems pretty interested in a cold war with China.
 
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Apparently there arent hawks and doves these days, only foreign-policy experts.

Hillary Clinton represents the view of foreign-policy experts: The US should show its strength and deploy its military. Her criticism of Biden's plan reflects this sensibility.

Her criticism matters, in part because so many in the foreign-policy establishment, both Democrats and Republicans, agree with her. Condoleezza Rice, who served as secretary of state under President George W Bush, has also warned about the risks of withdrawing troops, and the threat of terrorism.

Oh such deep analysis there from the BBC White House reporter Tara McKelvey.

 
Biden finally committed to evacuating the interpreters the other day. No plans or details published yet. There are 18,000 interpreters eligible. If you include their families, the number is 50,000 - 70,000. There are about 80 days until the US pulls out. So many planes will be needed that there's talk of activating the Civil Reserve Air Fleet, i.e. civilian airliners.

Interpreters have been able to apply for an immigrant visa for many years, but quite a few have been murdered while on the waiting list. Last year it emerged that only one person was processing the applications.
 

This could be errr interesting. Am wondering how the Taliban will take to this, and how China will take to the Taliban if there's any trouble.

Either way though, as I recall it's the relevant country that owes China the money for the project.
British Empire & USSR& American world hegemony nil

Afghanistan 5

I’ll await the PLA pull out in 2034
 

This could be errr interesting. Am wondering how the Taliban will take to this, and how China will take to the Taliban if there's any trouble.

Either way though, as I recall it's the relevant country that owes China the money for the project.
i wonder how many bailiffs the chinese will send to recover the debt
 
Biden finally committed to evacuating the interpreters the other day. No plans or details published yet. There are 18,000 interpreters eligible. If you include their families, the number is 50,000 - 70,000. There are about 80 days until the US pulls out. So many planes will be needed that there's talk of activating the Civil Reserve Air Fleet, i.e. civilian airliners.

Interpreters have been able to apply for an immigrant visa for many years, but quite a few have been murdered while on the waiting list. Last year it emerged that only one person was processing the applications.
I imagine the USA will allow a few dozen to leave for the states, for the press op and good news stories, the rest will be left behind.:(
 
A lot of Afghan troops are already fleeing into Tajikistan, which is calling up reservists for border service:


We're assuming a Taliban resumption of power - but how about a regional war just to keep things interesting?
 
A lot of Afghan troops are already fleeing into Tajikistan, which is calling up reservists for border service:


We're assuming a Taliban resumption of power - but how about a regional war just to keep things interesting?

Doubt anyone's going to war, except for the Afghans themselves. Money and arms are going to flood in from everywhere to pay for a proxy civil war.
 
Doubt anyone's going to war, except for the Afghans themselves. Money and arms are going to flood in from everywhere to pay for a proxy civil war.
Yes, that's the non-flippant answer.

The night the Soviets left in 1989, I tuned into Radio Moscow on the shortwave band. Their big news story that night was about women in Kabul forming armed militias to fight the mujahedin. And IIRC this was framed as women fighting for women not for the PDPA regime or the socialist camp . . .
 
Yes, that's the non-flippant answer.

The night the Soviets left in 1989, I tuned into Radio Moscow on the shortwave band. Their big news story that night was about women in Kabul forming armed militias to fight the mujahedin. And IIRC this was framed as women fighting for women not for the PDPA regime or the socialist camp . . .

Interesting history between the Soviets and Afghan women, heard an interview from a Soviet volunteer sent over to try to 'liberate' women by basically going door to door asking what they wanted to do with themselves. Mostly ignored, she said, but then did meet someone she'd spoken to decades before who'd since moved to Germany and built a life. Seemed like at least one life was effected.

Anyway, doubt any militias forming now will be as noble. Years of exoduses from the country plus every nearby power wanting their gun toting nuts in charge means it'll be warlords and the tenuously legitimate remains of the Afghan government holding out. Taliban have said they won't try to take Kabul by force, although they've also said they'll 'beat' the US and drive them out - which if it wasn't idiotic bullshit would mean going after the US forces that are staying around the embassy. If there's any optimism at all it's that they'll stick to the first part of that and there'll be at least some peace in the city - dismal as that'll be for everyone outside of it as they reassert themselves.
 
The US embassy is on the edge of the city in a high security zone full of embassies. You could attack it without affecting local people very much. They try not to live next to the zone because there've been so many battles and bombs there.
 
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