2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[butchersapron]

I agree - and they can specifically be happy that Labour haven't got 28%+ Labour may still have the most seats in 2015, but they've slipped back this week.

Because 5% of their vote went UKIP to a) put the tories under pressure b) show disgust at the status quo. They are far more likely to return to the fold come the gen election that the tory ukips.

 

[brogdale]

There it is...C Bearder LD

Christ, have we got to hear Farron again, now?

 

[butchersapron]

There it is...C Bearder LD

Christ, have we got to hear Farron again, now?

Stunning victory for principles.

 

[brogdale]

Hannan warning against "anarchy"

 

[JimW]

"People's Army" is farage a PD mole?

 

[brogdale]

Lab +6% in SE.

 

[tim]

MMIX VOTE ROMAN PARTY Ave


sadly very few did!

 

[DotCommunist]

waffling cunt

 

[Mr Moose]

There will be leakage back to labour too - a large chunk of that UKIP vote today is labour too. People prepared to protest vote in a second order election but not a general election. And people aren't voting solely, or even mostly over europe - a european election is just a handy opportunity to openly state their disgust with the status quo. It doesn't mean their genera election voting behaviour will be motivated by getting a referendum on the eu. That is well down the list of voting priorities.

Yep, some who would never vote Tory will go back, but it's very hard to dislodge a Government when the economy is growing and Labour simply haven't regained the ground the war and Gordon Brown lost them. Most of us here want them in for a kinder govt, but we lack belief they have an answer and we are not alone.

 

[JimW]

waffling cunt

Sounded.like a dull vicar on thought for the day

 

[treelover]

Result of the night has to be in France.

The National Front got 25% of the vote. Unbelievable and disturbing at the same time.

Hard right and left parties making a significant break through in Greece as well, probably less surprisingly!

Jobbik second in Hungary

Golden Dawn third in Greece.

 

[binka]

does anyone know what eu party funding is worth? will the lib dems miss out on much if they are down to 1 or 2 meps?

 

[DotCommunist]

Vine, in his natural cgi habitat

 

[brogdale]

Spoiler: Spoiler vote

Rob Ford (England) @robfordmancs
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#UKIP result might have been even stronger - splinter "An Independence for Europe" took 2% in most regions

 

[butchersapron]

Yep, some who would never vote Tory will go back, but it's very hard to dislodge a Government when the economy is growing and Labour simply haven't regained the ground the war and Gordon Brown lost them. Most of us here want them in for a kinder govt, but we lack belief they have an answer and we are not alone.

A growing economy doesn't automatically translate into votes for the govt. The tories need to get 40% and have labour in the very low thirties - i.e they need at worst a 6% lead to have even a sniff of a maority govt. Labour are winning all the marginal seats. Lib-dems are defecting to labour all over, UKIP are tearing chunks out of the tory right - and even if only 50% of this vote sticks (or the 17-18% of the locals) then this will cost the tories 30 seats min (that was their own estimate of if UKIP scored around 6% last time round - and they're going to do much better than that). The tories are in serious serious trouble.

 

[Nigel Irritable]

Here in Dublin, Paul Murphy (Socialist Party) got over 8% and 30,000 first preferences. That was a good showing, but he would be in the fight for a seat if the SWP/People Before Profit hadn't stood Brid Smith against him. Smith got somewhere over 6%.

A rather sour (and pointlessly destructive) end to a very good election for the Irish Left. Ruth Coppinger won a Dail by-election for the Socialist Party. 14 Anti-Austerity Alliance (SP and various community activists) candidates won Council seats, including breakthroughs in the second and third largest cities where the AAA each win three seats. Other left candidates also did well, with somewhere over 30 seats in all.

 

[free spirit]

interesting side note... Labour beat the Greens in Brighton according to the graphic on the BBC.

 

[tim]

Danny Alexander on the verge of tears.

 

[brogdale]

Beaker's on...surprise, surprise he reminded us they'd got one seat...

 

[farmerbarleymow]

This is interesting - someone on twitter has crunched the numbers by local authority area and turnout for NE England and it seems the higher the turnout the lower the kipper vote.

 

[Dogsauce]

Laughing out loud at beaker's face right now.

 

[brogdale]

Looks a little unstable tbh

 

[Mr Moose]

A growing economy doesn't automatically translate into votes for the govt. The tories need to get 40% and have labour in the very low thirties - i.e they need at worst a 6% lead to have even a sniff of a maority govt. Labour are winning all the marginal seats. Lib-dems are defecting to labour all over, UKIP are tearing chunks out of the tory right - and even if only 50% of this vote sticks (or the 17-18% of the locals) then this will cost the tories 30 seats min (that was their own estimate of if UKIP scored around 6% last time round - and they're going to do much better than that). The tories are in serious serious trouble.

Would like to believe it, but I don't.

 

[JimW]

Don't think the local elections showed what Alexander claims :-D

 

[farmerbarleymow]

This made me laugh. They don't mince their words.

 

[editor]

 

[mk12]

BBC now putting an Clegg-sceptic Lib Dem against Alexander. Brilliant.

 

[brogdale]

Beaker's quite twitchy, florid with red eyes....

 

[editor]

This made me laugh. They don't mince their words.

Well, Robinson was President of the Conservative Party youth group.

 

[brogdale]

Down in the mouth!