2014 EU/Local Election Thread - Predictions and Results

[elbows]

I'm not sure I will survive to see the London result at this rate.

I suppose for as long as I do last I will link to any london borough EU results as I find them.

Hackney: http://news.hackney.gov.uk/hackney-european-election-results-20/

 

[redsquirrel]

London will boost the labour percent when it comes through, right?

Almost certainly

 

[butchersapron]

London will boost the labour percent when it comes through, right?

Tories won the popular vote last time, but going to be huge lib dem influx to labour and drop off of tory vote. So possible, but not definite.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Fuck's sake. What's the matter with the South West.

View attachment 54538

Cornish turkeys voting for christmas there. Cornwall gets untold millions in EU development funding

 

[JTG]

West Midlands only region where Libs have beaten Greens. South West only region where Greens have increased vote share

 

[free spirit]

West Midlands only region where Libs have beaten Greens. South West only region where Greens have increased vote share

greens increased slightly in scotland as well I think.

 

[SpookyFrank]

West Midlands only region where Libs have beaten Greens. South West only region where Greens have increased vote share

The greens were only a hair's breadth from getting an MEP for the south west last time round IIRC.

 

[JTG]

greens increased slightly in scotland as well I think.

OK, was going on memory
Labour are predicting very slim lead over Tories

 

[free spirit]

But I'd have to say that the green vote is pretty bad, they should have been hovering up lib dem votes and broken through into double figures if they'd run a half decent campaign / any sort of campaign at all.

I wonder how much the experience in Brighton council has damaged them.

 

[ddraig]

are there no fucking cameras in Tower Hamlets??

 

[Dogsauce]

Tories won the popular vote last time, but going to be huge lib dem influx to labour and drop off of tory vote. So possible, but not definite.

It's just that the percentage on the BBC ticker tape has them behind the Tories - I can foresee printed newspapers in the morning quoting the results so far almost as the outcome, and turning it into a story about Labour's failure. The local election results seemed to be painted as something that should pressurise Miliband more than any other leader, and I suspect a disingenuous agenda to stir up the most turmoil in Labour ranks from the usual suspects, when it might be the Tories who should be most worried.

 

[JTG]

But I'd have to say that the green vote is pretty bad, they should have been hovering up lib dem votes and broken through into double figures if they'd run a half decent campaign / any sort of campaign at all.

I wonder how much the experience in Brighton council has damaged them.

Given that in Bristol we've seen Lib votes collapsing into Green, they're clearly losing votes elsewhere as well

 

[free spirit]

Given that in Bristol we've seen Lib votes collapsing into Green, they're clearly losing votes elsewhere as well

I suspect that there were a significant number of labour voters moved the greens last time as a protest vote, who've moved back to labour this time.

I'm also wondering how the greens pro-EU referendum policy has affected their support levels. I was pretty surprised to see this policy given that the EU has been by far the biggest driving force globally in environmental protection measures.

 

[Dogsauce]

I'd guess some left-leaning labour voters went green last time around, since lab seemed to be unlikely to do well and there was no damage that could be done to the government at the time by voting for them. Now labour voters have something to rail against (the coalition) so might go back into the fold. Greens have probably picked up some 'lentil Muncher' lib dems to replace those lost to labour, labour then losing some out the other end to UKIP.

Difficult to measure this sort of thing really, though occasional opinion polls show where people have moved their vote from/to.

 

[JTG]

John Curtice saying Labour up 14 points in London

 

[brogdale]

I'm voting for the radical Bedfordshire party (wooden hill faction).

 

[elbows]

BBC London result totals are starting to creep up now, though it unhelpfully fails to state which boroughs results are part of these totals:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu-regions/E15000007

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

"Tower Hamlets finds bundle of votes repealing the Corn Laws - recount started"

 

[SpookyFrank]

My weed guy picked a really bad day to not answer his phone, feel like I'm gonna be up til sunrise raging at thin air

 

[ska invita]

Excuse my ignorance, but the groups listed here:

"
Here is the European parliament's latest projection of the breakdown of seats in the new parliament"

are all UK parties lumped into these groupings?

 

[redsquirrel]

Excuse my ignorance, but the groups listed here:

"
Here is the European parliament's latest projection of the breakdown of seats in the new parliament"

are all UK parties lumped into these groupings?

Yep

 

[Kaka Tim]

Apparently Griffin and his minions took a bit of pasting when they arrived at the count in manchester.

video link - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27570161

 

[ska invita]

Yep

interesting! i wasnt aware of this

 

[editor]

Good ol' Hackney.

 

[elbows]

Excuse my ignorance, but the groups listed here:

"
Here is the European parliament's latest projection of the breakdown of seats in the new parliament"

are all UK parties lumped into these groupings?

Labour are in S&D.
Lib Dems are in ALDE.
Tories couldn't play nice with the large EPP conservative group, so are in ECR.
UKIP are in EFD.
I assume Greens are in the Greens/EFA but haven't checked.

 

[editor]

They're having to really waffle now.

 

[JTG]

Excuse my ignorance, but the groups listed here:

"
Here is the European parliament's latest projection of the breakdown of seats in the new parliament"

are all UK parties lumped into these groupings?

Groupings must have at least 25 members from 7 or more countries. Can make things tricky for the fringe types

 

[editor]

Come on Lambeth!

*drums fingers

 

[elbows]

They're having to really waffle now.

Earlier the BBC suggested that London may not bother with the formal total result tonight due to the Tower Hamlets issues. Then, unless I missed it, failed to update us on this.

 

[JTG]

I'm voting for the radical Bedfordshire party (wooden hill faction).

Yes, think I'm going back to my constituency and preparing myself for beddie-byes