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World War III

LDC said:
Given we might have blackouts etc. this winter (plus you know that pandemic recently...) getting a few extra supplies and things like a LED lantern and gas stove in are a sensible investment if you can afford it. It makes you less of a burden on wider society if things do go to shit, and you have stuff to share for those that can't afford or haven't been able to prepare a bit.
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I think if you look at prepper channels they'll tell you you've already fucked up quite badly there.
 
bcuster said:
Yes. Ukraine is not in NATO. So if there is to be a response in kind, who (what nation) should make it?
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If... should... hmmm, big words! My uneducated guess...

Clearly some decisions have been made already; the US has clearly stated what it would do. The UK will be involved in that. I suspect some other NATO countries will not get involved. And then they'll be a mix of other responses, from very strong condemnation and sanctions, some mealy mouthed 'unfortunate' stuff from the predictable, and then Ukraine's response (limited in reality I suspect as it's already throwing everything it's got and will be dealing with the blast as well), plus I think there might be a mess in agreeing any EU country response, which I would bet Putin is counting on if he uses one as well.

Short version: Ukraine obviously (to little effect), and then I bet it'll be the UK & US mostly, and not much else militarily (maybe Poland or similar).
 
8ball said:
I think if you look at prepper channels they'll tell you you've already fucked up quite badly there.
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Those are the kind of preppers who will end up being eaten alive (possibly literally) should a catastrophe actually come to pass. They're the fucking idiots who subscribe to rugged individualist bullshit, while completely forgetting that humans are social animals.
 
LDC said:
If... should... hmmm, big words! My uneducated guess...

Clearly some decisions have been made already; the US has clearly stated what it would do. The UK will be involved in that. I suspect some other NATO countries will not get involved. And then they'll be a mix of other responses, from very strong condemnation and sanctions, some mealy mouthed 'unfortunate' stuff from the predictable, and then Ukraine's response (limited in reality I suspect as it's already throwing everything it's got and will be dealing with the blast as well), plus I think there might be a mess in agreeing any EU country response, which I would bet Putin is counting on if he uses one as well.

Short version: Ukraine obviously (to little effect), and then I bet it'll be the UK & US mostly, and not much else militarily (maybe Poland or similar).
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I don't think there will be a nuclear response at all from any nation.
 
bcuster said:
I don't think there will be a nuclear response at all from any nation.
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That's been made clear by the US, they said a massive but conventional response. Although I suspect that might lead to a nuclear response to that from Russia. Although I think that might be confined to Europe. Again, uneducated guesses...
 
NoXion said:
Those are the kind of preppers who will end up being eaten alive (possibly literally) should a catastrophe actually come to pass. They're the fucking idiots who subscribe to rugged individualist bullshit, while completely forgetting that humans are social animals.
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I've been to enough prepper lectures to know that this feeling isn't universal. However, some will advocate for stockpiling for others, but their idea is to use food as a weapon of control. They want to use it to exchange food for loyalty and obedience to their rule. These guys always think they'll end up on the top of the social order, rather than the bottom or dead.
 
bcuster said:
I'm really afraid that may be so... I don't know what the alternative would be; Armageddon?
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See LDC’s comment above. The Yanks have directly communicated with Putin and relevant underlings the response to the use of nuclear weapons. They have not made this public but we can infer from the comments from ex- senior US military leaders that it will involve direct, massive conventional attacks on Russian forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea by the US and probably NATO.
 
WhyLikeThis said:
“Russia has repeatedly given a chance to the command of the satanists to come to their senses. But we were not heard or ignored. Now everything will be different, we will dictate the terms,” Putin said

From the Graun.

I think Putin’s been watching Scum.
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FWIW that no longer appears in the Guardian's version of that story, nor is anyone else reporting it (except via reposting the Guardian's initial article before it was edited).
 
The US have suggested that the entire black sea fleet will be obliterated if Putin uses a nuke. The EU have said Russia's forces will be obliterated. NATO have said similar (I'm sure they said the entire Russian army would be annihilated but I can't find it now). They've all said with conventional weapons. Is it that easy? I'm expecting a lot of submarine stuff but I suppose we'll never know about any of that.
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
I've been to enough prepper lectures to know that this feeling isn't universal. However, some will advocate for stockpiling for others, but their idea is to use food as a weapon of control. They want to use it to exchange food for loyalty and obedience to their rule.
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Fucking hell, why is the idea of voluntary cooperation for mutual survival so fucking hard for some people to grasp? At least it would be much easier to depose such wannabe scrap-metal tyrants than it would be to topple the real deal.
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
I've been to enough prepper lectures to know that this feeling isn't universal. However, some will advocate for stockpiling for others, but their idea is to use food as a weapon of control. They want to use it to exchange food for loyalty and obedience to their rule. These guys always think they'll end up on the top of the social order, rather than the bottom or dead.
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The YT vids I've seen are somewhere in the middle - about working out who has what skills, who has influence, who can be negotiated with etc. and not giving anything away about how much you have stashed away until you know exactly who you can trust.
 
NoXion said:
Those are the kind of preppers who will end up being eaten alive (possibly literally) should a catastrophe actually come to pass. They're the fucking idiots who subscribe to rugged individualist bullshit, while completely forgetting that humans are social animals.
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I go to these things for two reasons: 1) once-in-a-while even a blind squirrel finds a nut, and 2) it's important to know what the far right is thinking and planning.
 
Ming said:
I know. First we had a global financial crisis then a global disease pandemic. Well that was boring. Now we’ve got a hot war in Europe with nuclear potential. My misanthropic nihilistic tendencies have blue balls and demand release.
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It seems we have entered the age of permanent crisis.

That the world can even contemplate the possibility of nuclear Armageddon is testimony to the total failure of the hubristic dreams of the neo-liberals who were dominant in 1989-91. It would have helped if the idiots in charge, largely at the prompting of their eternal student kiddie advisers in the various, largely worthless career-facilitating think-tanks, hadn't alienated the world's second nuclear-armed power. And this at a time when all the radical socialist projects of yesteryear for a co-operative world, where war in itself, let alone nuclear Armageddon, gradually becomes a totally irrational option, lie in tatters, with little hope of being revived. Nobody has the faintest idea how to revive them really, especially in atomised societies.

If we get through the Ukraine fiasco unscathed, the climate crisis, or the side-effects of an irrational economic model, ensures that another one will be along soon. The climate crisis, when it kicks in good and proper, with the inevitable mass waves of refugees, guarantees, among many other infernos, more pandemics which might make how Covid looked in 2020 look like child's play. And we have, with the UK as the current prime example, student politicians in charge in most places, with no sign of this changing.
 
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RD2003 said:
It seems we have entered the age of permanent crisis.

That the world can even contemplate the possibility of nuclear Armageddon is testimony to the total failure of the hubristic dreams of the neo-liberals who were dominant in 1989-91. It would have helped if the idiots in charge, largely on the advice of their eternal student kiddie advisers in the various, largely worthless career-facilitatingthnk-tanks, hadn't alienated the world's second nuclear-armed power. And this at a time when all the radical socialist projects of yesteryear for a co-operative world, where war in itself, let alone nuclear armageddon, gradually becomes a totally irrational option, lie in tatters, with little hope of being revived. Nobody has the faintest idea how to revive them really.

If we get through the Ukraine fiasco unscathed, the climate crisis, or the effects of an irrational economic model, ensures that another one will be along soon. The climate crisis, when it kicks in good and proper, with the inevitable mass waves of refugees, guarantees, among many other infernos, more pandemics which might make how Covid looked in 2020 look like child's play. And we have, with the UK as the current prime example, student politicians in charge in most places.
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With regards to the climate crisis and migration….it’ll spread out from the equator. Most land mass is in the Northern hemisphere. I thought at the time the Trump border wall was a clumsy attempt at managing a future threat. Similarly the ‘unfriendly’ immigration approach in the UK. People drowning in the channel and sending people to Rwanda?? Messaging i would say.
 
Ming said:
With regards to the climate crisis and migration….it’ll spread out from the equator. Most land mass is in the Northern hemisphere. I thought at the time the Trump border wall was a clumsy attempt at managing a future threat. Similarly the ‘unfriendly’ immigration approach in the UK. People drowning in the channel and sending people to Rwanda?? Messaging i would say.
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Yes, we see rehearsals for the coming universal crisis all the time. Ukraine is the testing ground for how to manage war on the fringes of Europe without it affecting the centre too much. The project may be set to fail.
 
bcuster said:
but would any of these nations use them in defense of ukraine, a non-nato nation? i think not...
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That's the value of strategic ambiguity.

With luck, Ukraine will be the death knell of telling adversaries that we won't fight - the west does it time and again, and then changes it's mind when confronted with the entirety foreseeable consequences of doing so.

Falklands in 1982, Kurdistan in 1991, Georgia 2008(?), Ukraine 2014, Afghanistan 2021, Ukraine 2022. It happens every time, and people die every time because western politicians, reflecting their societies, are so desperate to be seen to avoid conflict, that they actually provoke it.

Does anyone believe that Argentina would have invaded the Falklands if the garrison had been 2 infantry companies, half a dozen F-4's, and a loud Fuck off?

Does anyone believe that if a magic mix of NATO surface to air missile units had been spread, however thinly, across Ukraine, with a slack handful of NATO fighters based in Kiyv, that Russia would have invaded?

Endless thousands dead, maimed, raped, and deported, societies laid waste, cities turned to rubble, all because they wanted to avoid waving the stick, and all they've achieved is that eventually the stick will be used.

Th e great thing about deterrence is that no one dies. Everyone goes home to their families - but it does require the stick to be waved.
 
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