geminisnake
a complex mass of conflicting ideas
That was kinda what I was hoping steeplejack but still 
Will you vote for independence?
- Thread starter ska invita
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Re the 'buried' Ipsos Mori poll recently
If that's true I hope Kelly Brown used a false name
Even if she has, there won't be many people with access to the info she claims.
equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
I think 'Kelly' might have dropped herself in it for breaching confidentiality.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
sorry I have just seen this.
regardless of the result, the SNP will be running the show after the referendum. One would expect their vote and credibility to collapse in the wake of a NO vote, but oddly I am almost certain it won't.
The reason? Many people will vote NO on the 18th but will vote SNP in 2015/16. The SNP are the only game in town when it comes to party politics which isn't healthy. Labour, thanks to their bitter-together dalliance with the Tory party, are a busted flush and slowly dying in Scotland, with membership and people willing to put in work for them haemorrhaging. The Tories have been a complete irrelevance since the early 90s, and to mention the Lib Dems would be to give them more credit than they deserve.
In a way a YES vote will ensure a bit of a change in the "democratic" parties; the Tories will reinvent themselves as Forward Scotland or something equally as unpleasant. Labour also have a huge amount of re-invention to do and to re-grow deeply atrophied roots to be taken seriously again. reinvention might not be a bad idea for them, too.
What is less certain is how the grassroots radical-independence campaign will react to Yes & No. The "radical" electoral vehicles- the Greens and the SSP- are only ever going to be marginal presences in the electoral landscape. If a new political vehicle or electoral presence can grow from RIC that would be the best option for me for a post-YES political landscape.
The SNP are a soft centrist organisation, left inclined on certain issues but pretty unpleasantly right wing on others. The idea that the SNP will develop a markedly different polity in Scotland, a little red pin prick in an ocena of European neo liberalism, is laughable. There's quite a bit of naivety about some aspects of the Yes campaign. An SNP run indpendent Scotland will be much like the Republic of Ireland politically, without the colossal debt.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
The 'hidden poll results' story may yet have legs
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/may/westminster-must-publish-hidden-opinion-poll
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/may/westminster-must-publish-hidden-opinion-poll
That was my other thought. When I worked for them we weren't even meant to have any written mention of who surveys were on behalf of. When we were doing things properly because the bigwigs were visiting, anyway.
equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
I'm not convinced about your point on debt. So much government organisation infrastructure needs to be set up and funded if Scotland becomes independent, and that will be costly. Not to mention the loss of European funding to universities and companies alike (universities will be hardest hit here) which could lead to a 'brain drain' exodus of staff and a subsequent drop in core funding (no staff = no students), and the oil industry in Scotland is reliant upon activity in the North Sea which is passed it's production peak. Manufacturing companies are practically non-existent these days. I doubt taxes would be raised to a level that would avoid debt completely.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
I meant, we won't have the Republic's 1.8 x 1099 billion euro debt fromn the financial crisis.
No one really knows what is happening with Europe so to project "loss of funding" and a "brain drain" seems catastrophist to say the least.
It is not in Europe's interest for Scotland to remain outside, and we are in uncharted territory. My hunch is that Europe will find a way to keep Scotland in regardless of what the rules might say. "Select the desired outcome and adjust your rules to achieve it" is how European politics seems to work.
No one really knows what is happening with Europe so to project "loss of funding" and a "brain drain" seems catastrophist to say the least.
It is not in Europe's interest for Scotland to remain outside, and we are in uncharted territory. My hunch is that Europe will find a way to keep Scotland in regardless of what the rules might say. "Select the desired outcome and adjust your rules to achieve it" is how European politics seems to work.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Public schoolboy, Oxbridge-educated, son of Tory grandee, Unionist Scot Hugo Rifkind writes in the Spectator about how spectacularly self-obsessed the Westminster bubble is being about the indy vote
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnis...s-fate-is-more-important-than-david-camerons/
It's an entertaining read, but best to avoid the comments.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnis...s-fate-is-more-important-than-david-camerons/
It's an entertaining read, but best to avoid the comments.
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
Frankie Jack
Not a bloke..
How is that article dated 17th May 2014?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Magazines date their issues forward a few days for some reason. They all do it.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
The cover date for mags is often "this is the date until which newsagents should keep this issue on the shelves" or something like that. Doesn't make sense online, but they still do it.
22 year old housemate was getting very animated about independence last night - when she moved down here 18 months ago she was mildly sceptical. Sounds like family/friends have influenced her from afar as Bristol isn't a hotbed for the campaign.
Other housemate was pro-Union but he's from a much better off background.
I kept my trap shut
Other housemate was pro-Union but he's from a much better off background.
I kept my trap shut
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Two polls today (both been posted on the referendum polling thread already)
ICM in the Scotland on Sunday have figures of
YES 34%(-5,
NO 46%(+4).
Apparently there was a change of MO by ICM and the old model would have produced even worse results for YES.
And Panelbase/Sunday Times:
YES 40%(nc)
NO 47%(+2)
ICM in the Scotland on Sunday have figures of
YES 34%(-5,
NO 46%(+4).
Apparently there was a change of MO by ICM and the old model would have produced even worse results for YES.
And Panelbase/Sunday Times:
YES 40%(nc)
NO 47%(+2)
equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
It's not catastrophising - EC funding brings millions of pounds to Scottish universities. As all the information to date from the EC says that Scotland will have to apply for membership, which is by no means a rubberstamping instantaneous exercise, what do you think will happen? Do you think that academics will sit around waiting on the off-chance they might be able to apply for funding again through the EC, or do you think they will head to universities where they can take their funding and apply for more?
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
could you provide "all the information" from the EC that says Scotland "will have to apply"?
it's uncharted territory and no one knows for certain what will happen. There are many different interpretations and the absolutist "Scotland will eb left out in the cold" is one few share.
To imply that there will be a brain drain and catastrophic loss of funding in the extremely iunlikely event of Scotland being excluded from the EU, *is* catastrophism and hand-wringing.
You cannot possibly know that, for the simple reason that no one is sure what will happen after a Yes vote.
My own personal view is that accommodation will quickly be reached as it is simply not in the EU's interest for Scotland to be "outside the tent" for long. At the very least, Scotland will continue as a member until February 2016. I would be astonished if negotiations weren't already going on behind the scenes to have the groundwork in place for a smooth transition in the event of independence.
It may not be a bump-free transition but the prediction of a massive funding loss and brain drain is verging on the ludicrous I'm afraid. If we vote Yes we aren't going back to the Middle Ages.
it's uncharted territory and no one knows for certain what will happen. There are many different interpretations and the absolutist "Scotland will eb left out in the cold" is one few share.
To imply that there will be a brain drain and catastrophic loss of funding in the extremely iunlikely event of Scotland being excluded from the EU, *is* catastrophism and hand-wringing.
You cannot possibly know that, for the simple reason that no one is sure what will happen after a Yes vote.
My own personal view is that accommodation will quickly be reached as it is simply not in the EU's interest for Scotland to be "outside the tent" for long. At the very least, Scotland will continue as a member until February 2016. I would be astonished if negotiations weren't already going on behind the scenes to have the groundwork in place for a smooth transition in the event of independence.
It may not be a bump-free transition but the prediction of a massive funding loss and brain drain is verging on the ludicrous I'm afraid. If we vote Yes we aren't going back to the Middle Ages.
gosub
~#
If negotiations were going on behind the scences it would probably leak out undermining the publicly stated positions
The disadvantage to the continued existence of various nation states (who must decide unanimously at European Council level) coupled with reticence of the Commission that have to oversee any transition is a big thing to downplay.
The disadvantage to the continued existence of various nation states (who must decide unanimously at European Council level) coupled with reticence of the Commission that have to oversee any transition is a big thing to downplay.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
it's hard to tell isn't it- the Unionist media were screaming a few months ago that Spain would veto iScotland's membership because of Catalunya and the Basque Country, only for the Spanism PM himself to intervene soon after and state categorically that Spain would have no problem with iScotland joining as long as the referendum was fair and democratic.
Nobody knows what will happen. I cannot state unequivocally that iScotland wil enter seamlessly and there is no doubt that the SNP udicrously bungled the European angle at first. Equally, no one can make catastrophist projections of brain drains because there is simply no evidence that will happen.
Nobody knows what will happen. I cannot state unequivocally that iScotland wil enter seamlessly and there is no doubt that the SNP udicrously bungled the European angle at first. Equally, no one can make catastrophist projections of brain drains because there is simply no evidence that will happen.
gosub
~#
There is a difference between (re)joining and continued membership. Joining means meeting the entrance criteria again and the UK current financial position with regards to borrowing levels doesn't meet them. Walking away from debt obligations would meet, but would unimpress to the point of veto. Application could well take years and new members are obliged to move towards Schengen and EUro membership.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
hm I dont think anyone is talking seriously about walking away from debt obligations accrued whilst part of the UK.
"Rejoining" or "Continued membership" is the *key* question to which no one seems to know the answer. Again, though, i am sticking to my already stated realpolitik line and that it is not in the EU's interests to go through another protracted accession process- my guess therefore (all anyone can offer at present) is that they will not.
pogofish
Testicle Hairstyle
Nope - was he in Aberdeen?
Last time I met Galloway, he was guzzling a substantial pie with both hands in a cafe!
gosub
~#
Whatever. It "real politic" in ther same way of Salmond's let us in or your fishing fleets can't have access - a bigger picture will throw UN safe passage at you. AND a big picture explains why Scotland can't be special. Numerous countrires within EUrope have a problem with member subdivision and wont bend rules and the Commision has told Scottish Parliament it will have to rejoin
REAL POLITIC is do you want to be a member of an organisation that it is about to side line you under acticle 50 of a new treaty. Salmond thinks he has to say yes to win a referendum.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
I'm not sure what the above even means.
gosub
~#
wetting a baby's head last night, sober now.
As much as there would be EU players queuing up to slap Salmond on the back for pulling the rug out from under the UK, the precedents and potential damage for other EU states faced with similar internal dynamics is too great to play with anything other than a straight bat. Yes may try to muddy the water but they are not plausible and somewhat out of their depth as Salmond's recent threat to fishing fleets proved - free transit is provisioned under UN law. So Scotland would have to reapply if it wanted in this means budget cuts worse than we have already had,Schengen area membership which will cause border crossings on the English side of the border and a move towards a doldrumed Euro currency. Member states are free to add more hoops if they wish as they ALL have a veto.
Yes says different because its easier to sell the lie, they won't even continence a further referendum on the EU because that undermines their lie. And it is either them lying or everybody else- Spanish government the Commission blah blah
At the same time all this is going on, the EU is gearing up for a new treaty, it needs one, major structural reform is needed to sort out the mess of the EUro. Article 50 of the working document for this new treaty gives second class status to non EUro members which become"Associate Members" with less say and less power. This applies not only to UK (it going to be fun watching Westminster jig about that when things are more formal, but in the time frame iScotland would also be outside the EUro so would be stuffed the same way.
If iScotland boxed clever, it could say fuck you to budget cuts, and a crippled currency and beat rUK to EFTA membership, would even leave the border crossings as pleasant picnic points.
As much as there would be EU players queuing up to slap Salmond on the back for pulling the rug out from under the UK, the precedents and potential damage for other EU states faced with similar internal dynamics is too great to play with anything other than a straight bat. Yes may try to muddy the water but they are not plausible and somewhat out of their depth as Salmond's recent threat to fishing fleets proved - free transit is provisioned under UN law. So Scotland would have to reapply if it wanted in this means budget cuts worse than we have already had,Schengen area membership which will cause border crossings on the English side of the border and a move towards a doldrumed Euro currency. Member states are free to add more hoops if they wish as they ALL have a veto.
Yes says different because its easier to sell the lie, they won't even continence a further referendum on the EU because that undermines their lie. And it is either them lying or everybody else- Spanish government the Commission blah blah
At the same time all this is going on, the EU is gearing up for a new treaty, it needs one, major structural reform is needed to sort out the mess of the EUro. Article 50 of the working document for this new treaty gives second class status to non EUro members which become"Associate Members" with less say and less power. This applies not only to UK (it going to be fun watching Westminster jig about that when things are more formal, but in the time frame iScotland would also be outside the EUro so would be stuffed the same way.
If iScotland boxed clever, it could say fuck you to budget cuts, and a crippled currency and beat rUK to EFTA membership, would even leave the border crossings as pleasant picnic points.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
so, on the basis of
1. one article of a "working document" (which would see the UK fucked anyway, in the event of Bitter Together prevailing) and
2. present members all having a theoretical veto (which even Spain says it will not exercise of the vote is fair and democratic which there is little reason to doubt)
3. instant border crossings because Schengen ( )
4. "Yes says different because its easier to sell the lie, they won't even continence a further referendum on the EU because that undermines their lie. And it is either them lying or everybody else- Spanish government the Commission blah blah"
what, and that nice Mr Cameron will definitely have an in /out referendum because well...he said so, didn't he.
presumably you also think the Spanish PM was lying when he said he would respect the result of a fair and democratic referendum, and have amazingly overlooked the differences of opinion with a Commission in uncharted territory, if Scotland votes yes.
so where does all this leave us, exactly?
To be honest, I'm not sure you're making much more sense with a hangover, with this wishing-upon-a-star drivel.
1. one article of a "working document" (which would see the UK fucked anyway, in the event of Bitter Together prevailing) and
2. present members all having a theoretical veto (which even Spain says it will not exercise of the vote is fair and democratic which there is little reason to doubt)
3. instant border crossings because Schengen (
)4. "Yes says different because its easier to sell the lie, they won't even continence a further referendum on the EU because that undermines their lie. And it is either them lying or everybody else- Spanish government the Commission blah blah"
what, and that nice Mr Cameron will definitely have an in /out referendum because well...he said so, didn't he.
presumably you also think the Spanish PM was lying when he said he would respect the result of a fair and democratic referendum, and have amazingly overlooked the differences of opinion with a Commission in uncharted territory, if Scotland votes yes.
so where does all this leave us, exactly?
To be honest, I'm not sure you're making much more sense with a hangover, with this wishing-upon-a-star drivel.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
In other news, this is a rather depressing poll in today's Herald.
One in the eye for those who insist, with not a great deal of evidence, that Scotland is more "left wing" and insitinctively "tolerant" of outsiders, than the rUK.
"Wir aw Jock Tamson's bairns". Well, as long as you're from round here, that is.
One in the eye for those who insist, with not a great deal of evidence, that Scotland is more "left wing" and insitinctively "tolerant" of outsiders, than the rUK.
"Wir aw Jock Tamson's bairns". Well, as long as you're from round here, that is.
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