The bold bit has all been addressed before, save for a possible nationalist backlash in England. And I actually have no real way of gauging that. Do you think there might be one? And why. This isn't an anti English demand for independence. It's not even a little bit about that.
How it would go would be something like this:
- Scotland votes "yes".
- There is general financial instability, particularly acute in Scotland, from the resulting uncertainty over currency.
- This instability lasts at least until there is certainty on the currency, which at a minimum would seem to be 2016, long past the next general election.
- The Bank of England, which has effectively guaranteed Scottish banks, has to prop them up by being the lender of last resort, lending billions of pounds to them.
- This is effectively a loan from rUK to Scotland.
- There is no guarantee that the resulting Scottish currency will be good for the loan, so the loan will, in effect, appear to be a bailout of an independent Scotland by the rUK taxpayer in the run up to a general election, with the very real prospect that Scotland will have to default on the loan at some future point in time.
This is all fairly reasonable stuff and it provides an interesting context in which to frame a general election with currency union being a central issue.
My broad understanding is that the "yes" camp would rebut that by saying it is just the kind of nightmare scenario that guarantees that a currency union would happen -
i.e. rUK are bound to let us in because if they don't we'll go bust and they'll lose a very large amount of money...they'll see reason etc, etc...
It's a strange argument, I can see the logic of it but it's quite high stakes stuff.
The real problem is that the basic structure there - of rUK insuring a Scottish economy which it has very little control over through sharing a lender of last resort (the Bank of England) - is a key feature of currency union. Demonstrating just how wrong something can go, while negotiating for exactly the same thing is a really odd way to go about doing things...
And then you can add in nationalist sentiment down here. It would be less anti-Scots per se because I don't think I've ever met anyone in rUK who is anti-Scots (unlike in Scotland where I not infrequently got a fair load of crap for being English), but more along the lines of - "what a bloody cock-up, how on earth can we trust that lot in a currency union?"
It would be a really interesting one for the Tories, would probably tear them apart given that they are both the Conservative and Unionist party...