redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
What is weird is that both the companies that have shown largish leads for NO have seen a sharp swing to YES while the two companies that have had the NO lead much smaller haven't seen any swing at all.
Will you vote for independence?
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DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Yeah, the no campaign are going on scaremonger overdrive today. Also the press down south has gone pretty nuts since there was a poll with Yes in the lead.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
Cameron saying today that the vote was irreversible, not sure he knows what he's talking about , there is no precedent for this as far as I can tell. So it is not impossible for an independent Scotland to apply to rejoin the UK. Unlikely I know, but not impossible.
Interesting to hear Carney and Krugman's opinions today.
In short - "you can use the pound but (i) you will have no monetary control and (ii) to offset that you will have to find massive reserves to protect against systemic failure".
I lived in Scotland for a fairly long period of time and always thought that the place struck me as being quite distinct from England/London, whatever. Independence always seemed to be the logical conclusion from that, however blundering into it without being able to explain the most vital functions of the State is absolutely mind-boggling, particularly given the categorical failure of the Eurozone.
There is a reason that Mark Carney is independent from the Crown Government - he is not a politician and he knows better than most of the Cabinet how to control monetary policy. The SNP pretend like monetary policy doesn't exist at all, perhaps because they haven't had to address the issue substantively since the Barnett formula came in to effect roughly 25 years ago, however the truth is that they have no specific plan, nor any well-worked out back-ups. There's just nothing there.
The Scots will be independent, almost certainly, IMO within the next decade, but if they choose to sail with this bunch of charlatans they'll be taking an almighty risk. It might work, but my guess is not until after, at the very least, a generation of extremely steep transaction and fixed costs.
In short - "you can use the pound but (i) you will have no monetary control and (ii) to offset that you will have to find massive reserves to protect against systemic failure".
I lived in Scotland for a fairly long period of time and always thought that the place struck me as being quite distinct from England/London, whatever. Independence always seemed to be the logical conclusion from that, however blundering into it without being able to explain the most vital functions of the State is absolutely mind-boggling, particularly given the categorical failure of the Eurozone.
There is a reason that Mark Carney is independent from the Crown Government - he is not a politician and he knows better than most of the Cabinet how to control monetary policy. The SNP pretend like monetary policy doesn't exist at all, perhaps because they haven't had to address the issue substantively since the Barnett formula came in to effect roughly 25 years ago, however the truth is that they have no specific plan, nor any well-worked out back-ups. There's just nothing there.
The Scots will be independent, almost certainly, IMO within the next decade, but if they choose to sail with this bunch of charlatans they'll be taking an almighty risk. It might work, but my guess is not until after, at the very least, a generation of extremely steep transaction and fixed costs.
Ted Striker
Foot's on the other hand
Just popping my head into the thread...Haven't been following it that closely - I've always assumed Scotland will vote to depart and tbh a bit bemused how on earth is the No vote still in the running? You've got the consumate politician in Salmond, with popularity and profile only really matched in the modern era by 'things can only get better era' Blair, and a vision of giving people something dramatic and different...and just in case there were any floaters, DC and his chums venture North to remind people just what they can further distance themselves from.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
How is Carney in a position to claim we wont have reserves but would have a debt? He is playing politics. The man is deeply unprofessional, blatantly not independent and a poor economist.
And Krugman. His he going to go and live in Larkhall if we vote no? Will we get Stiglitz and Mirrlees doing the rounds on the UK media tomorrow?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Scotland, or more precisely the Scottish Parliament of the day, applied to join the UK in the first place.
But all 3 tits said the same thing: "I don't think you realise how serious this is".
Everyone I spoke to found that irritating and patronising. Even No voters.
We know. We've debated this for 2 years. You only found out about it yesterday, you over privileged twats.
Miliband didn't even have regular briefings on Scotland until recently, but he wants to tell us to take it seriously? Fuck off, Ed, you patronising know nothing weirdo, and take your Tory buddies with you.
Really good point this.
Of course Cameron's line is a bargaining chip - there is no reason whatsoever to think that the referendum is irreversible/irrevocable.
In much the same manner that the Union with Denmark under King Cnut could be revived and that with Brittany, or with any element of the former Empires/fiefdoms/Dominions and territories. The USA, even?
Anything is possible and so on, however the only realistic scenario under which Scotland would reapply for membership of the Union would be if Scotland systemically failed, in a manner similar to the Darien adventure, and, under present constitutional arrangements, that would require, at the very least, a decisive majority in the House of Commons to force through (assuming that it is opposed at the Lords, as would seem likely) a bill under the Parliament Acts.
Why on earth would rUK go along with that?
The Union is fundamentally pragmatic in nature, if the Scots fail alone, there will be very few effective appeals to sentiment to rUK to let them back in and gain the security that they voluntary forwent at a significant cost to the general population.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
Good point on the previous application but if that situation occurred again it wouldn't be the politicians making the decision
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
The Scots won't fail alone. If it would fail alone and it was not important, we would not be getting political interventions from the central bank. What other policies of Carney's are based on political pressure? The UK is thoroughly undemocratic. Nearly every sphere. Keeping Scotland in the Union will be a disaster. Our Parliament will be attacked by Westminster cuts who will try and shift the blame to the SNP. We will never be allowed a referendum again after this one not going to plan. We will have years of austerity and English resentment for the Yes campaign.
Safe to say, we're fucked in the Union and it will not be a pleasant place to be at all. Working-class solidarity? The narrative will be that the Scots were too useless to survive as an independent country, that's why we voted no. What a massive piss on the face of probably the only mass movement I have ever seen in Scotland.
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Carney a poor economist? On what basis, do you make that assessment? It is notably unsupported at the moment.
The more important point though, is that if Scotland were to refuse to take on a share of national debt proportionate to its economy it would be effectively going through a sovereign default at the outset of its existence, without a separate currency or the financial firepower/liquidity of independent reserves, nor proper control of its own monetary policy. I know that this debate has been going on for years in Scotland and I, like most of rUK, are coming to it pretty late in the day but when you start to look at the details, there's just nothing there, absolutely nothing.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
He is a poor economist because he has intervened politically.
The share of the debt and reserves would be decided in political negotiation. He either knows that and made the statement anyway or he did not think what he was saying was a political intervention. Either way, it was unprofessional.
The share of the debt and reserves would be decided in political negotiation. He either knows that and made the statement anyway or he did not think what he was saying was a political intervention. Either way, it was unprofessional.
Fair enough, the Scots may have shouted themselves / voted themselves into a corner by choosing Salmond/Sturgeon (who are notably just as cynical/exploitative/self-interested/mendacious as their kind down South), but that is a remarkable final basis to make this decision upon - losing face essentially...
What do you mean "intervened politically"? He was up before the Treasury Select Committee under oath.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
He has second guessed political negotiations. At the very least he was poorly briefed.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
His responsibility as Governor of the BofE is really quite a political position though.
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
Which details would those be? Austerity? Bedroom tax? The NHS? Public services? War? The poll tax? Trident? Expenses? (on and on)
Here are the facts. We work. We pay taxes. We don't need hand-outs. We're fucking sick of westminster. We think we can do a better job in the context of our society even though we are multi-cultural and multi-faceted.
He was asked direct questions and offered a range of answers. Even the least bad, 25% of GDP required in reserves, against the most likely, 100% of GDP given Scotland's finance sector, are pretty worrying.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Look, the BoE is meant to be independent of government. its entire creation was in response to Labour and Tory governments basically printing money for short-term political gain. In makes you wonder what Carney has been up to for short-term political gain.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
Indeed.
I can't help thinking that today's comments from John Major (seemed to be along the lines of "tony blair shouldn't have done the devolution thing, it has given the scots fancy ideas") and DC have both added a few points to the 'yes' vote...
(and i'm starting to wonder if having a scottish great grandparent (or it may be great great?) and a couple of runrig albums would qualify me for immigration in to independent scotland in a year or two...)
Well, he's not directly elected by the franchise. It's more of a technocratic position that controls levers of power deemed too dangerous for politicians to gain substantial influence over - far more specialised than an MP and less democratic than a European Commissioner, for instance. Separation of powers stuff etc...
The MPC is arguably more powerful than the Cabinet as a result, but that's an entirely different debate...
What on earth do you mean by that?
Carney is in the most solid exective position in the "Government" imaginable.
He started his 8 year term last June. That's 8 years. Almost twice the length of a sitting Parliament and he is just over 1 year into that term.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Anyway, I'm sure urban is gagging to hear the view from the Scottish aristocracy. This article by Sophia Money-Coutts (her real name, amazingly) for Tatler is priceless:
http://www.tatler.com/news/articles/september-2014/the-future-of-scotland
http://www.tatler.com/news/articles/september-2014/the-future-of-scotland
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
I am actually lost for words.
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
'Scotland's elephant polo champion'.
What do you mean anti-governmet proclamation?
Carney is a monetary expert who more or less controls the whole of UK monetary policy and brings to bear considerably more weight than the Cabinet or anyone else on the matter.
What form would this anti-government statement take? Some offence regarding foreign policy, ISIS perhaps, maybe an intervention in a bye-election against a UKIP candidate on the grounds of the microeconmic risk arising from their standing, or perhaps a carefully directed torpedo at NHS privitization...?
He is a technocrat, a banker, not a politician.
DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
Remember when that drugs czar said cannabis wasn't so bad? Out the fucking door.
Monetary policy as far as I can see currently consists of printing it.
The thing is, Scotland will still have these people after independence.
Independence is not a silver bullet for all of Scotland's discontents.
Far from it, in present form, it looks like a pretty ricketty vessel to get going with.
That's not to say it's not the right thing in the medium to long term (for instance, if devo-max went ahead it would cause such a serious constitutional crisis as to all but guarantee the break-up the whole of the Union in pretty short order), but I certainly wouldn't trust the current helsmen, especially when they appear to have no rudder.
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