Will you vote for independence?

[DotCommunist]

anyone have any graphs or details on where the undecideds are most heavily concentrated?

 

[danny la rouge]

anyone have any graphs or details on where the undecideds are most heavily concentrated?

Highest concentrations of DKs are in Glasgow and the Borders. The two darkest brown areas here: http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/scottish-independence-regional-polling.html

However, Glasgow, although the area is small on the map, is where the population density is greater. So that's where the greatest effort from both camps is going; more people, more undecideds, and (not on the map), more people not accustomed to voting. (The people RIC are trying to stir up).

 

[Quartz]

Has anyone done any research into the why of the Don't Knows? I'm sure things like 'Giving both sides time to make their arguments', 'I've been on a submarine / abroad / in prison', 'It's over my head', and 'I don't care' will crop up.

 

[DotCommunist]

Highest concentrations of DKs are in Glasgow and the Borders. The two darkest brown areas here: http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/scottish-independence-regional-polling.html

However, Glasgow, although the area is small on the map, is where the population density is greater. So that's where the greatest effort from both camps is going; more people, more undecideds, and (not on the map), more people not accustomed to voting. (The people RIC are trying to stir up).

ta

with the yae/nae so closely split in the polls I see the DK's as those who will swing it and was trying to work out what are effectively scotlands swing areas- cheers.

 

[butchersapron]

Interesting interview with John Curtice - suggests Yes is running out of time and road.

The first obvious thing to say that we’ve had 60 to 65 opinion polls now, and of all of those only one has ever put the ‘Yes’ side ahead, and that was back in the August of last year – no is ahead and every single opinion polls that is the case the more any ‘Yes’ vote would come as a shock.

There are two caveats, however. Caveat number one is that ‘No’ votes lead did narrow during the winter, probably to the order of four percentage points or so and to that extent at least the ‘No’ vote lead doesn’t look as solid now as it did six months ago. The second caveat is that there has always been throughout this campaign a consistent difference between the opinion polls in terms of their estimate of the level of ‘Yes’ support.

We have now a trio of pollsters; Panelbase, ICM and Survation that tend to put Yes support at somewhere around the 45-48% mark, suggesting it’s a pretty close contest, on the side – YouGov, TNS-BRMB, and Ipsos MORI, who have been putting it around 39/40% to around the 42% mark. Clearly, if they are right, the ‘No’ side still has a very comfortable lead and its hard to see how the ‘Yes’ side could possibly narrow it. Certainly, they would appear to need a pretty remarkable ‘game-changer’ to do so

 

[phildwyer]

Interesting interview with John Curtice - suggests Yes is running out of time and road.

Heh. The "Don't Knows" will all vote "yes."

It's in the bag.

 

[danny la rouge]

Cool. That's made my day.

 

[weepiper]

Perhaps it's a large dose of wishful thinking but the official polls don't reflect the mood of the two major cities at least as far as I can see. It's getting talked about at pretty much any social gathering I've been to and honestly among my friends, family and workmates there are very very vanishingly few who've said they're voting No, a big majority who've said they're voting Yes and less and less who say they're undecided. I follow a lot of people involved with doorstep canvassing on twitter and they're mostly reporting a majority of Yesses too. I wouldn't write it off yet.

 

[danny la rouge]

I do meet more Nos than you or Gem report, but then I do live in a Labour Westminster seat, and it's a fairly middle class town, with a lot of university staff.

 

[weepiper]

I live in the most stereotypically middle class bit of Edinburgh you could imagine yet there are a lot of Yes posters in the windows.

 

[Quartz]

I have been in London today and the referendum was almost everyone's first question. Many were aghast at possibly losing Scotland. I highlighted Cameron's idiotic visit to Aberdeen, said I was undecided and that I thought the vote would be very close indeed.

 

[DairyQueen]

I hope we do it. I heard somewhere that there could be an 80% turnout. Don't know if that is good or bad, but must have an impact on polling. Lets hope these new voters are some untermensch rising up and not just ballot stuffing.

 

[danny la rouge]

I have been in London today and the referendum was almost everyone's first question. Many were aghast at possibly losing Scotland. I highlighted Cameron's idiotic visit to Aberdeen, said I was undecided and that I thought the vote would be very close indeed.

Who would be "losing" Scotland? I hear this a lot from rUK people. Still don't know what it means. In what sense would Scotland be "lost" to them?

 

[weepiper]

Who would be "losing" Scotland? I hear this a lot from rUK people. Still don't know what it means. In what sense would Scotland be "lost" to them?

It's very possessive, isn't it.

 

[danny la rouge]

I hope we do it. I heard somewhere that there could be an 80% turnout. Don't know if that is good or bad, but must have an impact on polling. Lets hope these new voters are some untermensch rising up and not just ballot stuffing.

There were some interesting figures on that:

"While the overall turnout in the referendum is expected to be high, around 70%- 80%, there could still be a higher turnout amongst Yes than amongst No supporters. In a tight race, this could be crucial."

"Looking at only undecided voters, 91% of those leaning towards Yes are more than 50% likely to vote, compared with 73% leaning towards No."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/polit...ly-to-turn-out-and-vote-in-indyref.1398944965

 

[DotCommunist]

to a unionist, scotland is the central plank of the union. It's great britains closest and largest remaining territory. Indy for them, would be a loss to the union. In prestige, asset value etc.

Also I think they know that if scotland goes, the rest of the union will be finished long term too.

 

[danny la rouge]

It's very possessive, isn't it.

Yes, that's the impression it gives that Scotland and Scots were something they "had" in some sense.

If it's about friendship, sense of family, cultural exchange: we'll still be here. Hi.

 

[danny la rouge]

to a unionist, scotland is the central plank of the union. It's great britains closest and largest remaining territory. Indy for them, would be a loss to the union. In prestige, asset value etc.

Also I think they know that if scotland goes, the rest of the union will be finished long term too.

Good. The Union and all it represents is past its sell by and belongs to a bygone era. It's be best if the rUK state gave up its ambitions of being a world power, and started representing the wishes of its own people Neal Ascherson, writing in the FT, put it well:

"But the moral disgust of most Scots at coalition policies [...] is shared by millions in England and Wales. For them too, some pre-Blair, modest form of social democracy remains the best of British".

The Westminster political classes are out of step with the people. The majority of the British public support nationalising the energy and rail companies. But it isn't on offer, partly because the neoliberal project won't countenance that, but also because the Westminster parties are chasing the swing voters in a handful of swing seats. The public also support the NHS, currently being carved up and sold off, and public ownership of the Royal Mail.

Dissolving the Union might just be the shock to the system of the establishment that allows the rUK public to reassert those modest (but worth having) goals.

 

[JTG]

Hi
I do wonder whether the reported polls will lead to a lower turnout of the No vote, thinking it's a done deal.
Either way, seems to me that a high turnout overall means pollsters may be having trouble applying their usual formulae, along with the fact that the standard party political rules of the polling game are irrelevant here

 

[Quartz]

Who would be "losing" Scotland?

The rest of the UK.

I hear this a lot from rUK people. Still don't know what it means. In what sense would Scotland be "lost" to them?

It would be a foreign country.

BTW the people to whom I spoke were from all over the U.K., including Scotland. Quite a few No voters there.

 

[danny la rouge]

The rest of the UK.

How?

It would be a foreign country.

And therefore lost to them? I honestly don't understand that mindset. At all.

I don't feel Ireland is lost to me because I don't share a government with its residents. Or France or Italy or anywhere else I have a visited and feel an affinity with.

I won't feel like England or Wales are "lost" to me if Scotland becomes independent. I'll still visit as often. My friends and relations who live there will still be my friends and relations. I'll still read English authors, listen to English musicians, sing songs written by English composers, watch Corrie. I will continue to buy every Half Man Half Biscuit album that comes out, in the unspoken pact I have had with them since the 80s to contribute to their upkeep and eventual retirement as long as they need me to. I will visit Scarthin Books whenever I am in Derbyshire. I will always love walking in Cumbria, the Peak District National Park, the Cornish coast. And so on.

I literally have no idea why sharing a government or not has any relevance to any of that.

BTW the people to whom I spoke were from all over the U.K., including Scotland. Quite a few No voters there.

Yes, I'm sure. It does seem to be a Unionist mindset that Scotland or England would be "lost" to the other. As a non-nationalist, though, it is beyond my understanding.

 

[Quartz]

And therefore lost to them? I honestly don't understand that mindset. At all.

I didn't ask them to elaborate, but I believe it's an emotional thing: just as many here support Scottish independence from an emotional POV, so many support the Union from an emotional POV.

 

[danny la rouge]

I didn't ask them to elaborate, but I believe it's an emotional thing: just as many here support Scottish independence from an emotional POV, so many support the Union from an emotional POV.

Oh, yes, I know. I just don't personally feel emotionally attached to any government. I find it a weird thing to be emotionally attached to, personally.

 

[geminisnake]

Scotland won't be 'lost', it'll still be exactly where it has been for thousands of years. Scotland is a country and if those unionists truly saw the union AS a union how can they LOSE a country? They can lose a union but Scotland isn't theirs to fecking lose!

 

[danny la rouge]

If you feel the need to vomit, here is a video of celebrities saying "Please don't go".

http://www.scotlandnow.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/video-celebrities-voice-support-no-3868187

Where are we going? We'll still be here. It's nice that Ross Kemp and others think we're his best friend, but that doesn't address why that means we should continue to share a government, nor, more importantly, does it do anything at all to address the reasons people in Scotland may be considering no longer sharing a government. You wrote on a placard? Oh, OK, we'll vote No, then.

 

[weepiper]

Interesting how all the really emotive pish seems to be coming from the No side, despite the media's desperate attempts to paint the independence referendum as being some rose-tinted Braveheart replay.

 

[danny la rouge]

I seem to remember geminisnake asking me why I oppose EU membership, but I can't find the exchange. Anyway, I mentioned TTIP. Here's a short video:

 

[JTG]

CBA to look at the 'don't go' stuff but is it fair to say most of the people in it are English? I don't get it, much as I'm fond of Scotland and have many dear Scottish friends (I share a house with three of them), I really don't see it as my place to be attempting to persuade anyone to vote one way or the other. It's weird.

 

[Quartz]

Interesting how all the really emotive pish seems to be coming from the No side

That would be, for example, why the SNP chose the vote to be on the anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn.

 

[weepiper]

That would be, for example, why the SNP chose the vote to be on the anniversary of the battle of Bannockburn.

Bannockburn was fought on the 24th of June. Not the 18th of September.