Ukraine 2022 - Possible Lessons from Past Wars?

[deeyo]

i was thinking bout other wars one could compare this one with and take heart (or despair) from;
maybe the finnish winter war (and the continuation war?)

stalin supposedly calculated he'd need 10-12 days to win (took 3.5 months & later led to the continuation war ), hoped for support from the finnish socialists - of which he saw very little... the russians were ill prepared & took heavy losses, the soviet union got voted out of the league of nations...
and while finland lost, they kept their independence - planted them firmly on the german side of ww2, though.

Winter War: The 1939 Soviet Invasion Of Finland In Crystal-Clear Photos

www.rferl.org

What Ukraine Can Learn From Finland

In December 1939, a small country with a small military held off the vastly superior Soviet Red Army and avoided occupation by its larger neighbor.

foreignpolicy.com

Over the Border

The Communist Party of Finland was founded 100 years ago today. Its fate was tightly wound up with the Soviet Union across the border.

jacobinmag.com

off on a tangent, another war that might be interesting is the uganda-tanzania war/kagera war of 78-79.
idi amin invaded northern tanzania wanting to move the border to the kagera river, tanzania under nyerere & ccm mobilised & threw idi out of tanzania & then continued to oust him from uganda as well. even installed a representative government before backing out.

happy ending - the evil dictator bites of more than he could chew, gets whats comin to him, justice prevails..
truth, of course, is not that simple. the war broke the backs of both countries fragile economies, led to a militarisation of tanzania, uganda saw political chaos & bandit rule for decades after the war...

i realise i haven't thought this one through, discussion could go anywhere or nowhere at all, i suppose.
invasion of the bay of pigs, the soviet-afghan war, iran-iraq, israels different wars... cambodia-vietnam, chechnya, transnistria..

Everything You Need to Know - Kagera War

The Uganda-Tanzania War, known as the 1979 Liberation War in Uganda and the Kagera War in Tanzania, was fought between Tanzania...Read more!

unitedrepublicoftanzania.com

Abnormal: Why the Tanzanian Invasion of Uganda Was, and Was Not, a Humanitarian Intervention

Image Caption: Idi Amin’s coup in 1978 of former Ugandan President Milton Obote was the first in a series of events that led to the 1978 Tanzanian invasion of Uganda. But was that invasi…

yris.yira.org

A New Cold War: Rethinking Intervention in Africa through the Uganda-Tanzania War

A New Cold War: Rethinking Intervention in Africa through the Uganda-Tanzania War

www.academia.edu

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It still feels too early to say.

Also lessons from history can be instructive, but times change. In the world of the internet, smartphones and Twitter, responses to actions are instant. We're less than a week in and Russia's economy is already in freefall, ostracised left right and centre. That's a contrast with, say, Uganda vs Tanzania, about which the wider world didn't give much of a shit. Many millions died in Congo more recently without the wider world giving much of a shit. But every atrocity is going to be scrutinised in Ukraine.

 

[Pickman's model]

i don't suppose being voted out of the league of nations in 1939/40 was that much to be worried about

 

[deeyo]

i don't suppose being voted out of the league of nations in 1939/40 was that much to be worried about

no, it wasn't. it was almost the last thing the leauge did before collapsing & apparently in breach of its own regulations.

but even though most of the (western) world supported finland, they had to fight alone.

churchill supposedly wanted to send british & french soldiers to finlands aid, but it never happened. better speaker than boris, though

International Response to the War - Finland at War

The International Response to the Winter War was generally positive in support for Finland. But not every nation did the same.

www.finlandatwar.com

Mannerheim, Churchill, and the Quandary of Finland in Two World Wars

Fate made Mannerheim and Churchill, natural allies, into enemies. Was there ever such a polite declaration of war between two countries?

winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu

 

[deeyo]

It still feels too early to say.

Also lessons from history can be instructive, but times change. In the world of the internet, smartphones and Twitter, responses to actions are instant. We're less than a week in and Russia's economy is already in freefall, ostracised left right and centre. That's a contrast with, say, Uganda vs Tanzania, about which the wider world didn't give much of a shit. Many millions died in Congo more recently without the wider world giving much of a shit. But every atrocity is going to be scrutinised in Ukraine.

i guess what i wanted was to open a new thread for discussion aside the main thread & give a couple of examples - theres lots of stuff closer to the actual conflict, both in time & distance.
the winter war has obvious parallells, though.

too early?
but putin ain't the first 'mad dictator' threatening the world, war makes strange bedfellows (libya & plo fought with idi amin & both the us & soviet supported him at different times).

both the wars i mentioned were over in months, while the soviet-afghan war lasted for about ten years. In some ways this war has been going on since 2014...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not dissing the thread. It's a good idea to separate it off. We need parallel discussions. It just feels to me like we're in a bit of a fog at the moment. I don't quite know what to think.

 

[deeyo]

I'm not dissing the thread. It's a good idea to separate it off. We need parallel discussions. It just feels to me like we're in a bit of a fog at the moment. I don't quite know what to think.

neither do i.

 

[Dogsauce]

There‘s maybe a slight parallel with post-WW1 Germany in that after the fall of communism Russia was to some extent humiliated and resentful, and this has fuelled the desire to re-emerge as a great power. Though most of that humiliation was self-inflicted by their own robber barons and mafia scum looting the place and impoverishing the population, it wasn’t western capitalists helping themselves to oil profits etc., they just set the example.

 

[bimble]

there are lots of people on the internet cheering about how sanctions are destroying the Russuan economy. That seems really stupid, hyperinflation and pariah status isn't fertile ground for good stuff to happen next.

 

[ska invita]

there are lots of people on the internet cheering about how sanctions are destroying the Russuan economy. That seems really stupid, hyperinflation and pariah status isn't fertile ground for good stuff to happen next.

Of course there have been crippling, deadly sanctions imposed many times before, and leading to tens of thousands of deaths even. It is estimated by UNICEF and the Lancet that Iraq sanctions resulted in 500,000 child deaths over a 13 year window - though this is now disputed.

It would be interesting to look at historical examples of the effectiveness of sanctions - where have they "worked" and what have they ever achieved?

As always its the innocent working class who suffer the most.
As always there are no winners in war, only losers.

 

[Kaka Tim]

yeah - echoes of winter war - russia overestimating its military power and getting embarrassed by a better trained, smarter and better motivated opponent.

 

[frogwoman]

there are lots of people on the internet cheering about how sanctions are destroying the Russuan economy. That seems really stupid, hyperinflation and pariah status isn't fertile ground for good stuff to happen next.

That stuff is nauseating. People can't get money out to pay for stuff ffs

 

[Pickman's model]

there are lots of people on the internet cheering about how sanctions are destroying the Russuan economy. That seems really stupid, hyperinflation and pariah status isn't fertile ground for good stuff to happen next.

I can't see a more pacific leader than Putin thriving in Russia against such a backdrop. It's all going to hell in a handcart

 

[deeyo]

Of course there have been crippling, deadly sanctions imposed many times before, and leading to tens of thousands of deaths even. It is estimated by UNICEF and the Lancet that Iraq sanctions resulted in 500,000 child deaths over a 13 year window - though this is now disputed.

It would be interesting to look at historical examples of the effectiveness of sanctions - where have they "worked" and what have they ever achieved?

As always its the innocent working class who suffer the most.
As always there are no winners in war, only losers.

south africa would be a good example of effective sanctions.
the non-intervention agreement during the spanish revolution helped the fascists win. both us & soviet/russia have used sanctions successfully aganst smaller neighbours.
(us continued the embargo against nicaragua for 4 yrs after they were ruled illegal by the world court & never payed any reparations)
economic sanctions has broken strikes & crushed countless militant workers movements.

i dont think there's any doubt they can be effective.

& of course there are profits to be made out of sanction & wars.

 

[discokermit]

no, it wasn't. it was almost the last thing the leauge did before collapsing & apparently in breach of its own regulations.

but even though most of the (western) world supported finland, they had to fight alone.

churchill supposedly wanted to send british & french soldiers to finlands aid, but it never happened. better speaker than boris, though

International Response to the War - Finland at War

The International Response to the Winter War was generally positive in support for Finland. But not every nation did the same.

www.finlandatwar.com

Mannerheim, Churchill, and the Quandary of Finland in Two World Wars

Fate made Mannerheim and Churchill, natural allies, into enemies. Was there ever such a polite declaration of war between two countries?

winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu

stick yer churchill up yer arse yer cunt.

 

[Rimbaud]

I think there could turn out be a bit like an inverse of German WW2 blitzkrieg into France.

France was still using outdated trench warfare tactics, but modern technology had changed the nature of warfare to make these tactics useless. Nazi Germany incorporated technological changes into their tactics and won.

But now, Russia is attempting to use something similar to Blitzkrieg tactics, but Ukraine's use of drones to target supply lines is proving effective. Lots of tanks running out of fuel and getting lost. Ukraine only has a few drones but I could see them getting more. Quite possible this turns out to be the war where use of drones renders old Blitzkrieg style tactics outdated.

Ukraine’s Secret Weapon Against Russia: Turkish Drones

Videos of Ukrainian drone strikes are a crucial weapon in the propaganda war as well as in the military one

time.com

Also, I wonder how much the irrelevance of government administration buildings these days may change things. Russia has bombed them, but haven't all the people inside got used to remote working already anyway? I wonder to what extent this will prove to be a factor in having a far more resilient besieged city than has historically been the case. You could have a kind of mobile, guerilla government in Kyiv which is much harder to capture than when it is all concentrated in a single building.

 

[deeyo]

stick yer churchill up yer arse yer cunt.

maybe i should.

fuckers pretty dead though, aint he?

 

[The39thStep]

I’m a bit more interested in how these capitalist countries might learn about past lessons in keeping peace tbh

 

[deeyo]

I’m a bit more interested in how these capitalist countries might learn about past lessons in keeping peace tbh

that might have been a better thread.
& putin probably still thinks he's doin his best.

 

[ska invita]

south africa would be a good example of effective sanctions.
the non-intervention agreement during the spanish revolution helped the fascists win. both us & soviet/russia have used sanctions successfully aganst smaller neighbours.
(us continued the embargo against nicaragua for 4 yrs after they were ruled illegal by the world court & never payed any reparations)
economic sanctions has broken strikes & crushed countless militant workers movements.

i dont think there's any doubt they can be effective.

& of course there are profits to be made out of sanction & wars.

The end of South African apartheid seemed to me (with the emphasis on SEEMED - hands up, I dont know about it) the result of many factors of which sanctions were not necessarily the key one...but I dont know

I cant help but think of the Afghanis currently staving to death thanks to sanctions - sanctions which will never get rid of the Taliban.

I'm not saying there shouldn't be sanctions on Russia right now, I'm just not keen on further immiserating already poor and suffering people in Russia, of which there are many

 

[Kaka Tim]

Those NLAW and javelin anti-tank missiles are also a crucial factor - hand held, accurate, relatively simple to use and can take out any tank with one hit. I was a but surprised by how many tanks the Ukrainian army claimed the took out in the first few days so did some research - and yeah, they are really effective and a real advantage to a defender. The NLAW costs £20,000. A Russian battle tank - fuck knows - a million? The Ukrainian army are getting thousands of these missiles.

 

[ska invita]

Just to go back to the subject of sanctions for a second - hope its not a derail, only there is a also a history of war-based sanctions. But very much agree with this:

One yacht down:

MSN

www.msn.com

I'm surprised that when Putin moved his boat, that he didn't warn this guy that he should move his. Personally, I think putting pressure on the oligarchs is probably the way to go. I don't think anyone in power really cares about the average citizen in Russia or elsewhere, so many of the sanctions won't work.. Many Russians live in abject poverty, especially ones in rural areas, while people with power, such as this guy, swan around in $600 million dollar superyachts. Only hitting them where it hurts (their money and assets), will move them. I think if you put enough pressure on the oligarchs, they'll replace Putin themselves. (No one should expect Putin to resign and walk away. He's not the type. He'll have to be carried out.) I'm not certain if that will be better in the long-term tbh.

 

[Idris2002]

Suppose Kyiv falls.

Suppose Zelensky is killed fighting on the last barricade.

There will still be a Ukrainian government in exile after that, and a Free Ukrainian Army somewhere in the field in Ukraine.

There are precedents for that, some good (the Anders Army and the Polish government-in-exile) and some bad (the Contras in Nicaragua).

 

[Idris2002]

i was thinking bout other wars one could compare this one with and take heart (or despair) from;
maybe the finnish winter war (and the continuation war?)

stalin supposedly calculated he'd need 10-12 days to win (took 3.5 months & later led to the continuation war ), hoped for support from the finnish socialists - of which he saw very little... the russians were ill prepared & took heavy losses, the soviet union got voted out of the league of nations...
and while finland lost, they kept their independence - planted them firmly on the german side of ww2, though.

Winter War: The 1939 Soviet Invasion Of Finland In Crystal-Clear Photos

www.rferl.org

What Ukraine Can Learn From Finland

In December 1939, a small country with a small military held off the vastly superior Soviet Red Army and avoided occupation by its larger neighbor.

foreignpolicy.com

Over the Border

The Communist Party of Finland was founded 100 years ago today. Its fate was tightly wound up with the Soviet Union across the border.

jacobinmag.com

off on a tangent, another war that might be interesting is the uganda-tanzania war/kagera war of 78-79.
idi amin invaded northern tanzania wanting to move the border to the kagera river, tanzania under nyerere & ccm mobilised & threw idi out of tanzania & then continued to oust him from uganda as well. even installed a representative government before backing out.

happy ending - the evil dictator bites of more than he could chew, gets whats comin to him, justice prevails..
truth, of course, is not that simple. the war broke the backs of both countries fragile economies, led to a militarisation of tanzania, uganda saw political chaos & bandit rule for decades after the war...

i realise i haven't thought this one through, discussion could go anywhere or nowhere at all, i suppose.
invasion of the bay of pigs, the soviet-afghan war, iran-iraq, israels different wars... cambodia-vietnam, chechnya, transnistria..

Everything You Need to Know - Kagera War

The Uganda-Tanzania War, known as the 1979 Liberation War in Uganda and the Kagera War in Tanzania, was fought between Tanzania...Read more!

unitedrepublicoftanzania.com

Abnormal: Why the Tanzanian Invasion of Uganda Was, and Was Not, a Humanitarian Intervention

Image Caption: Idi Amin’s coup in 1978 of former Ugandan President Milton Obote was the first in a series of events that led to the 1978 Tanzanian invasion of Uganda. But was that invasi…

yris.yira.org

A New Cold War: Rethinking Intervention in Africa through the Uganda-Tanzania War

A New Cold War: Rethinking Intervention in Africa through the Uganda-Tanzania War

www.academia.edu

Bandit rule? Uganda would have been lucky just to have bandits. Last year I did some consultancy work on a human rights project that involved looking for DNA evidence from mass graves - not mass graves from Amin's time, but of much more recent vintage (my work was all online, I didn't visit the region myself).

"Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner" is a stirring tune, but that line about "they killed to earn their living and to help out the Congolese" - well the people of Congo have never been helped out by Thompson gunners, and the same is true of many other places.

 

[LDC]

The end of South African apartheid seemed to me (with the emphasis on SEEMED - hands up, I dont know about it) the result of many factors of which sanctions were not necessarily the key one...but I dont know

I cant help but think of the Afghanis currently staving to death thanks to sanctions - sanctions which will never get rid of the Taliban.

I'm not saying there shouldn't be sanctions on Russia right now, I'm just not keen on further immiserating already poor and suffering people in Russia, of which there are many

Yeah, I am very uncomfortable about sanctions, although totally get why they're used. I would be much more comfortable if they were much more targeted rather than blanket - assuming it was possible to do that.

 

[A380]

stick yer churchill up yer arse yer cunt.

 

[Pickman's model]

"Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner" is a stirring tune, but that line about "they killed to earn their living and to help out the Congolese" - well the people of Congo have never been helped out by Thompson gunners, and the same is true of many other places.

presumably the melody is john brown's body. the tunes of american civil war songs have gone far and wide, from love me tender (the civil war's aura lee) to the fenian record player (yellow rose of texas)

 

[Idris2002]

presumably the melody is john brown's body

You've never heard "Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner"?

 

[Pickman's model]

You've never heard "Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner"?

no. but the lyrics you post fit the melody of john brown's body

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Just to go back to the subject of sanctions for a second - hope its not a derail, only there is a also a history of war-based sanctions. But very much agree with this:

Personally, I think a lot of the world's problems could be solved if we measured everyone's yacht, and anyone who owns a yacht of over 79 feet*, should be tied to the mast and the boat sank. We could make a nice reef somewhere, with a little plaque.

* I use that distance because its the cutoff point between a pleasure cruiser and a large yacht. It's also the cutoff point between mere wealth and rapacious greed. (I also considered 39 feet as the cutoff point.)