Those by-elections (potential and otherwise) in full

[belboid]

On 12 October 2023, The Guardian confirmed that Cameron had defected to the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party thereby admitting to being a festering pile of rubbish.[2]

It won't last long, but is vaguely amusing for those three minutes

 

[PR1Berske]

I like the restraint to use "rubbish".

 

[Puddy_Tat]

hmm

from a perspective that's south of the thames, not just south of the border, i find it hard to imagine anyone defecting from the SNP to the conservative + unionist party, but still...

labour seat from the 50s until 2015, seems like the tory vote has grown from distant 3rd to not far behind labour in recent years

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (UK Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

i don't understand all the implications, is that people who are anti independence voting tory even if that's not their usual first choice?

 

[BusLanes]

Well she's clearly super pissed at the local and central SNP and wants to cause maximum damage in the short term. Maybe one more heave and off Humza goes?

In medium term this probably only helps Labour, in the constituency and Scotland because it'll distract both the SNP and Tories, leaving the way open.

 

[BusLanes]

Anyway, Tamworth and Mid-Dorriesland up this week.

Hard to tell who's going to win either but I guess Mid Beds is the harder as three are going for it. You have to think the Tories have the advantage on that case but all three seem to be putting in a lot of effort.

I'm picking Tories to retain both, just. But I am also bad at picking parliamentary by elections

 

[PR1Berske]

Here we go again:

(Link is to Twitter, reads

" || Peter Bone MP (CON, Wellingborough) is set to recieve a 6-week suspension from the House of Commons for 'varied acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct'.

This will trigger a recall petition within the constituency."

 

[Elpenor]

Possible a case of nominative determinism - anyway good riddance hopefully

 

[DotCommunist]

Seems unlikely to be an upset here, maybe seb payne will get listed for this one then we'll have that tory pod person as mp for the town next door. Joy.

 

[BusLanes]

Seb Anywhere Is Good Payne

 

[PR1Berske]

From The Telegraph

2:49PM
Tories braced for ‘sizeable Labour victories’ in by-elections this week
Tory officials believe Labour could secure “two sizeable victories” in the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections on Thursday, according to a leaked memo.

The memo, sent by party officials to Tory chairman Greg Hands, painted a grim picture for the Conservatives ahead of the contests.

On Mid Bedfordshire, the memo stated: “Research data collected soon after the by-election was called indicated a halving in our vote share, from 59% at the last general election to approximately 29%/30% in the by-election.”

On Tamworth it said that analysis of “data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28/33%”.

The memo concluded that “it is highly unlikely that our local campaign will have sufficient impact to secure a significant improvement in likely turnout levels of Conservative voters, and as such two sizeable Labour victories are to be expected”.

The leaked memo was obtained by Sky News. The Tories are defending a majority of 19,634 in Tamworth and 24,664 in Mid Bedfordshire.

 

[PR1Berske]

From BBC News

A former SNP MP who defected to the Conservatives has defended her decision not to stand down for a by-election.

Dr Lisa Cameron said many other MPs had changed parties in recent years without triggering such a vote.

In a BBC interview, she repeated her claims that she quit because of a "toxic culture" in the SNP's Westminster group.

She also said she regretted not leaving the party sooner as her experience had damaged her mental health.

Dr Cameron, who was an NHS clinical psychologist before she was elected in 2015, announced her defection last week just ahead of a selection meeting to pick the next candidate for the East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow constituency.

She was facing a challenge for re-selection from Grant Costello, who was employed by the SNP as a digital manager.


Dr Cameron confirmed she planned to return to NHS work, and would not stand at the next general election, but insisted there was no need for her to stand down sooner.

She said: "Lots of MPs move party and actually create their own parties and didn't have by-elections because it is not part of the process.

"I know Humza Yousaf had called for that, but my understanding is actually in the Scottish Parliament that was put forward earlier this year and the SNP did not support the premise that if you change party from your initial election then there should be a by-election or recall.

"So I don't think there should be one rule for them and a different rule for me."

She added: "And certainly in this parliament those who have switched parties are all men except for me so they are still there.

"Why should I be the one to go?"

The MP said she was prescribed anti-depressants and received counselling as a result of treatment she claims to have received during her time within the party.

Since making the announcement about her move on Thursday, she said she had received numerous "threatening messages".

The MP said she had to close her constituency office and had been forced to miss her daughter's 15th birthday amid security concerns.

On her decision to leave the SNP, she said she felt "isolated" within the SNP's Westminster group and there was a lot of "fear and intimidation".

She said that intensified after she defended the teenage victim of unwanted sexual advances from SNP MP Patrick Grady.

She said: "The only regret I have is that I stayed in the situation I was in for such a long time struggling and that I didn't perhaps heed the advice of the health professionals like my GP saying 'we can counsel you, we can give you some medication, but unless you change your situation, you're not going to feel any different'.

"And I just feel a tremendous relief now that I'm out of that situation and that I'm looking forward to engaging with so many new colleagues who have sent me messages asking me to join groups, to come for a coffee, to come to events."

On Monday senior SNP MP Alison Thewliss told Radio Scotland's Drivetime programme that she did not recognise Dr Cameron's claims that there were "toxic" and "bullying" elements in the SNP.

 

[Dom Traynor]

I think it's ok to bully Tories unless they are sticking up for sex abuse victims, so if she's telling the truth I do feel bad for her. And why would she lie about that?

 

[brogdale]

Pics of Ratboy being "statesmanlike" all over the media from about 7am...clearly coincidental.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[brogdale]

Are we assuming low turnouts in both?

 

[MickiQ]

Are we assuming low turnouts in both?

Probably by-elections generally have low turnouts especially given whoever wins these is probably going to have to defend them in under 12 months

 

[brogdale]

Probably by-elections generally have low turnouts especially given whoever wins these is probably going to have to defend them in under 12 months

Rainy day, an’all

 

[Eric Jarvis]

Tamworth was a Labour seat not all that long ago. It's traditionally a Labour Tory marginal... Mid Bedfordshire not so much.

 

[Eric Jarvis]

Are we assuming low turnouts in both?

I think we are assuming the hard core party activists and the families of the candidates being the bulk of the voters.

 

[belboid]

Mid-Beds result due 1.30-2am, Tamworth 3.30-4

Don't think I am sufficiently caring to stay up somehow.

 

[Calamity1971]

Have we had this from Tamworth Tory?

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Have we had this from Tamworth Tory?

Yet another tory cunt then - no surprise there.

 

[PR1Berske]

By now "elections Twitter" would be full of claims of who has won what. Fairly quiet and guarded tonight.

 

[PTK]

By now "elections Twitter" would be full of claims of who has won what. Fairly quiet and guarded tonight.

I predict a big swing to Labour in Mid-Beds.

Labour will take the seat with 600 votes, which will be twice as many as the Conservatives.
"It is a great achievement at this time of year, in this point in the election cycle, to have inspired nearly 2,000 people to come out and vote. I think a 3% turnout is a respectable result, given the particular factors at play in this election", said a Labour spokesperson.

 

[Bingoman]

By now "elections Twitter" would be full of claims of who has won what. Fairly quiet and guarded tonight.

According to Jon Craig on Sky news mid beds is now a three horse race and people think that the Tories may hold on?

 

[PR1Berske]

According to Jon Craig on Sky news mid beds is now a three horse race and people think that the Tories may hold on?

It'll depend on postal votes, I reckon.

 

[PTK]

It'll depend on postal votes, I reckon.

The trouble is, Amazon was given the contract to deliver the postal votes.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

35.9% turnout in Tamworth

 

[Bingoman]

35.9% turnout in Tamworth

Who does that favour?

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Who does that favour?

No idea, but hopefully not the vermin.