Theresa May's time is up

[andysays]

This just popped up



Regardless of whether or not it ever would get through parliament, I feel - in the current charged youth climate - it would be disastrous for May to put it forward.

More broadly, I think it's disastrous for both May and the Tory party that she has decided so quickly that some form of partnership with the DUP is the best course for her and for them (never mind for the "nation").

From their point of view I suggest it would have been far better to have attempted to govern as a minority with tacit support from the DUP (and possibly LDs in some cases) than to immediately link her and their fortunes with the DUP.

It may be that this decision is seen in years to come as equally inept as Cameron's to hold the EU ref and May's to call a GE 3 years earlier than necessary - all of them short term supposed political expediency which backfired almost immediately.

 

[Sirena]

More broadly, I think it's disastrous for both May and the Tory party that she has decided so quickly that some form of partnership with the DUP is the best course for her and for them (never mind for the "nation").

From their point of view I suggest it would have been far better to have attempted to govern as a minority with tacit support from the DUP (and possibly LDs in some cases) than to immediately link her and their fortunes with the DUP.

It may be that this decision is seen in years to come as equally inept as Cameron's to hold the EU ref and May's to call a GE 3 years earlier than necessary - all of them short term supposed political expediency which backfired almost immediately.

If I remember rightly, Belgium lasted a year and a half without any government and without passing any new laws.

Am I right to think she only needs a majority for lawmaking?

 

[andysays]

If I remember rightly, Belgium lasted a year and a half without any government and without passing any new laws.

Am I right to think she only needs a majority for lawmaking?

She doesn't need a formal majority of MPs for anything. As I understand it*, all she needs to form a government is to get a Queen's speech (a summary list of bills her government intends to implement) passed by a simple majority of those MPs actually voting.

According to this table of MPs, even if all Labour, SNP, LD, PC and Green MPs vote against, that only makes 315 against the Cons 318. So unless DUP actually vote against, May can get her Queen's speech through and form a government without any formal deal with the DUP or anyone else (also assuming SF don't take their seats, which seems a reasonable assumption).

*no doubt someone else will point our the glaring error I've made

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

She doesn't need a formal majority of MPs for anything. As I understand it*, all she needs to form a government is to get a Queen's speech (a summary list of bills her government intends to implement) passed by a simple majority of those MPs actually voting.

According to this table of MPs, even if all Labour, SNP, LD, PC and Green MPs vote against, that only makes 315 against the Cons 318. So unless DUP actually vote against, May can get her Queen's speech through and form a government without any formal deal with the DUP or anyone else (also assuming SF don't take their seats, which seems a reasonable assumption).

*no doubt someone else will point our the glaring error I've made

Which is what makes the knee jerk jumping in with the DUP now all the more stupid.

 

[brogdale]

Gavin "arab girls" Barwell to 'steady the ship' of state!
lol

 

[ruffneck23]

Shortest thread ever I hope , could be resolved in under 24 hours

Sad to say I was wrong , but surely it can't be long

 

[Vintage Paw]

Ruth Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway as she challenges Theresa May's Brexit plan

 

[Corax]

What we really need now is for Hammond to fuck the economy up on an absolutely colossal scale.

I'm still meeting far too many 'older' voters that "would love to vote for Labour but..." they still believe the economic incompetence vs economic competence mythos that the Conservatives have so successfully built up around Labour vs themselves. Despite all the evidence to the contrary.

FFS, there are still tonnes of them out there that blame Gordon Brown for the global crash.

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

loved the mirror headline:

COALITION OF CRACKPOTS

 

[brogdale]

Loving that new logo...

 

[ruffneck23]

I was chatting to a bloke I know who is pretty sound , he is about 30 ,we know each other on a decent level , he even said he likes chatting to elders like me , I'm only 46 ffs and he had admitted he reads my fb posts , which if I'm completely honest have been pretty hardcore labour pro in the last week saying he agrees what I say but thinks all Muslims are in it together and how his pretty underground dealings with them , how they don't give a shit about us apart from money, I tried to reason with him but he is scared but he is dealing with the wrong circles tbh.

What worried me is this feeling isn't uncommon around here , it seems people are preparing for civil war. Perfectly polite reasoned people are losing it. But in a weird way I understand why I was fuckimg scared last week , but I'm not going to take up arms..

it didn't help that his Rasta mate fell asleep in the pub garden where we were drinking , ending with me being asked to wake him up constant ly by the landlord. I say Rasta as he was black with dreads for no other reason than he stuck out like a sore thumb and this is little England , didn't help my cause tbh but I tried

This is why they won't vote for jezza as he is seen in Tory land as wanting to let all in and this is a big thing round here
Corbs and co need to educate people about the policy more clearly or I'm going to run out of breath trying to explain and educate folk
Much like radicalised Muslims we have our own home grown militia in waiting...

This scares me as much

 

[redsquirrel]

This just popped up



Regardless of whether or not it ever would get through parliament, I feel - in the current charged youth climate - it would be disastrous for May to put it forward.

Who is this person? Because I'd take the tweet with a huge pinch of salt.

The below sounds a lot more likely,

The former Tory cabinet minister Owen Paterson sparked alarm by suggesting his party may have to enter into “a debate on further reduction of abortion times as medical science advances”. But it is understood the DUP will argue that controversial issues like gay marriage and abortion can be dealt with only in a Northern Ireland context by the Stormont assembly.

The Observer has learned that the DUP was planning to dodge a row when negotiations began by avoiding the inclusion of any controversial social policies, such as opposition to gay marriage or abortion, in its so-called “shopping list” of demands to the Tories. Party sources said it would be seeking commitments from May that there would be no Irish unity referendum and no hard border imposed on the island of Ireland. However, some Tories remained concerned that a pact would damage a brand they have spent years trying to detoxify.

For all May's clusterfuck the Tories have a reasonably strong hand against the DUP, if the DUP won't give supply and confidence then the odds are a Labour government and/or another election, I can't imagine either would be particularly desirable in their view.

 

[Corax]

The former Tory cabinet minister Owen Paterson sparked alarm by suggesting his party may have to enter into “a debate on further reduction of abortion times as medical science advances”. But it is understood the DUP will argue that controversial issues like gay marriage and abortion can be dealt with only in a Northern Ireland context by the Stormont assembly.

To which I would ask: What fucking Stormont assembly?

 

[Sirena]

Who is this person? Because I'd take the tweet with a huge pinch of salt.

Yes, I think you're right

Debate on abortion possible as humiliated Tories forced to do a deal with DUP

 

[billy_bob]

If I remember rightly, Belgium lasted a year and a half without any government and without passing any new laws.

Am I right to think she only needs a majority for lawmaking?

Lasted? Fucking thrived.

 

[mather]

To which I would ask: What fucking Stormont assembly?

I know lol, it has been shut down for months.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Sounds like tomorrow's Mail will be talking up a Boris leadership challenge.

 

[brogdale]

Who says there's no integrity left in British politics?

 

[not-bono-ever]

Fools. Utter fools. Johnson has been unmasked as a tactless public school bully during the election.

 

[Streathamite]

She doesn't need a formal majority of MPs for anything. As I understand it*, all she needs to form a government is to get a Queen's speech (a summary list of bills her government intends to implement) passed by a simple majority of those MPs actually voting.

According to this table of MPs, even if all Labour, SNP, LD, PC and Green MPs vote against, that only makes 315 against the Cons 318. So unless DUP actually vote against, May can get her Queen's speech through and form a government without any formal deal with the DUP or anyone else (also assuming SF don't take their seats, which seems a reasonable assumption).

*no doubt someone else will point our the glaring error I've made

She actually only needs 315 MPs, due to Sinn Fein's not taking up their seats, and the Speaker and his two deputies not voting

 

[Wilf]

Who is this person? Because I'd take the tweet with a huge pinch of salt.

The below sounds a lot more likely,




For all May's clusterfuck the Tories have a reasonably strong hand against the DUP, if the DUP won't give supply and confidence then the odds are a Labour government and/or another election, I can't imagine either would be particularly desirable in their view.

Yeah, certainly if both sides steer well clear of anything to do with bumsex, gay marriage and abortion and stick to economics. Buying the dup off is relatively cheap in the scheme of things, particularly as we owe something like £1.6 trillion. The potential dup issue is more if things kick off in the North, in major or minor ways. And May's bigger problem is Labour insisting on votes or amendments that expose the breixit divides in her own party.

I was amazed how John Major found his way through to 1997 without a majority for most of that time iirc (he was also pretty resilient personally and in, to be honest, a fairly low key Corbyn-esque way). May's position is on the face of it weaker than Major's, but with a complication. If she get's through this week without a challenge - and it looks like she will - the party are into negotiations on brexit. Unless something goes catastrophically wrong, I can't see Johnson or anyone else taking her on as they look like some kind of national traitor. After brexit is done or well on it's way it's just a matter of time. To be honest though, Labour must be desperate for her to stay.

 

[Smangus]

I hope she lasts for a good time yet.


Just to prolong the Tory agony..........

 

[andysays]

More fun to come later today

General election 2017: May to face Tory backbench critics

Theresa May is likely to face questions about the Conservatives' election campaign when she meets the party's backbenchers later.

The 1922 committee is also expected to raise concerns about her leadership style, and press for more details on talks with the Democratic Unionists. Mrs May hopes to strike a deal with the DUP to support her minority government.

 

[billy_bob]

More fun to come later today

General election 2017: May to face Tory backbench critics

I'm going to make myself hostage to fortune here but I think it's going to be a damp squib. Yes, the Tories are good at regicide, but not when they're as likely to lose power as a result as they are here. They could muck about after the referendum last year without worrying, because Corbyn's Labour were nowhere at that point. I'm sure being in control's more important to them than liking or approving of the boss.

So she'll be given a going-over, but future leadership contenders will be scrupulously loyal as Boris was yesterday, and in the end they'll rally round because 'what's important now is stability and firm leadership as we go into the critical Brexit negotiations'.

None of this means she'll last the year out, of course. Queen's speech may be a tougher gig.

 

[gentlegreen]

I hope she lasts for a good time yet.


Just to prolong the Tory agony..........

And give Labour a chance to get their act together ...

 

[Kaka Tim]

but why would may want to stay on? its just prolonging her humiliation. she has zero authority, the cabinet are dictating her every action, her party despise her, the rest of us are laughing at her. Every trip to the house of commons she will be pilloried. Its like "the office" - you are laughing at david brent, but part of you just wants him to be put out of his misery.

Im wondering weather she is just going to stay on to get the queens speech through (next week?) and will then crawl off and die under the nearest rock.

 

[Pickman's model]

but why would may want to stay on? its just prolonging her humiliation. she has zero authority, the cabinet are dictating her every action, her party despise her, the rest of us are laughing at her. Every trip to the house of commons she will be pilloried. Its like "the office" - you are laughing at david brent, but part of you just wants him to be put out of his misery.

Im wondering weather she is just going to stay on to get the queens speech through (next week?) and will then crawl off and die under the nearest rock.

i look forward to the next pmq, if corbyn plays it right she'll be utterly humiliated

 

[Wilf]

Gavin "arab girls" Barwell to 'steady the ship' of state!
lol

View attachment 109060

Oh, fuck, I'd forgotten that was him.

 

[billy_bob]

but why would may want to stay on? its just prolonging her humiliation. she has zero authority, the cabinet are dictating her every action, her party despise her, the rest of us are laughing at her. Every trip to the house of commons she will be pilloried. Its like "the office" - you are laughing at david brent, but part of you just wants him to be put out of his misery.

Living in denial is a way of (at least temporarily) staving off that humiliation. I know that sounds daft because it's all around her, even allies and sympathetic media blatantly taking the piss or laying into her. But psychologically speaking it's sometimes easier to convince yourself of the massive apparently unbelievable lie that you're in the right and it's everyone else who's got a problem than it is to accept reality and own the humiliation. Brent knows what a loser he is on some level, but the more that becomes apparent the more determinedly he debases himself further by trying to mask it.

It's not like there'd be any honour in defeat in this case, either: this all results from an appalling and completely avoidable error of judgement.

 

[not-bono-ever]

her entire life has been going for the top job, despite having a toolbox that is deficient for the role. She has nothing to lose by hanging on. Only some horrendous sex and drug scandal could possible make her walk of her own choice. She has nothing at all after politics- nothing going on whatsovever. Its pitiful and somewhat sad