Theresa May's time is up

[Kaka Tim]

Well its all internal isn't it? Noone HAS to do anything, if any magic tipping point is reached I am sure it will all discussed internaly in private, rather than TM suddenly being tipped out of her chair like a crystal maze game show.

once they reach 48 letters - the parliamentary party have to have a vote on weather they have confidence in her leadership. Its their rules - there's no choice about it.

 

[rutabowa]

once they reach 48 letters - the parliamentary party have to have a vote on weather they have confidence in her leadership. Its their rules - there's no choice about it.

I bet its 48 letters within a 3 month period tho, or 48 letters within 1 parliamentary session, or at least some time limit. Not 48 letters across the whole time they are leader, which could be 10 years or whatever.

 

[Kaka Tim]

the letter stands until the mp who sent it withdraws it.

 

[rutabowa]

What is everyone basing that on? Is there an original document of the rules online or something?

I also think that, if the 48th letter came in, whoever received it would be having internal talks with the other 47 letter writers explaining that if one of them doesn't withdraw it then they will be fucked... basically I just don't think it is as easy as that article suggests.

 

[Sprocket.]

Do not mess with The Brady!
He is allegedly the only one who knows how many current letters are in.

 

[binka]

Do not mess with The Brady!
He is allegedly the only one who knows how many current letters are in.

I was going to ask how many people know how many letters are in. Good thing your average Tory MP is so honest and trustworthy or else there'd be an awful lot of scope for shenanigans with such a system

 

[Kaka Tim]

What is everyone basing that on? Is there an original document of the rules online or something?

I also think that, if the 48th letter came in, whoever received it would be having internal talks with the other 47 letter writers explaining that if one of them doesn't withdraw it then they will be fucked... basically I just don't think it is as easy as that article suggests.

Forty-eight Conservative MPs would need to back a no confidence vote in Theresa May to trigger a leadership contest, according to party rules.

There are two ways a contest can be triggered, most obviously if the leader of the party resigns. If they do not, 15% of Conservative MPs must write to the chairman of the 1922 committee of backbench Tories. With the party’s current crop of 317 MPs, 48 would be needed.

from here - How would the Tories trigger a leadership contest against Theresa May?

im sure you can get hold of the tory party rulebook if you can be arsed. as soon as letter 48 comes in - the contest is triggered. To do otherwise would be a breach of their own rules.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I was going to ask how many people know how many letters are in. Good thing your average Tory MP is so honest and trustworthy or else there'd be an awful lot of scope for shenanigans with such a system

the gaurdain article above says something like "it is believed that the number stands at 40" - ive seen that widely reported elsewhere and nobody seems to be disputing it. Presumably thats becasue its from off the record briefings to journos from the 1922 committee itself - or people close to it.

 

[agricola]

another day, another surrender:

Government accepts public ownership registers for UK overseas territories in major U-turn

Sir Alan Duncan now turns to beneficial ownership in his speech.

He says he tried to address this by tabling his own amendment. This would have taken measures to get crown dependencies to establish public registers of beneficial ownership, short of legislation.

He says he thinks there would have been a majority for his amendment. But it was not selected, he says.

He says the government proposal would have avoided the prospect of there being a constitutional clash between London and the overseas territories.

Turning to the Hodge amendment, he says the concern is that it would compel the UK to legislate if the overseas territories act by the end of 2020.

He says these territories have registers that are available to the law enforcement agencies.

The arguments are finally balanced, he says. The government recognises the need to tackle fraud.

But the economic impact on the overseas territories will be signficant. They have their own legislatures. They are not represented in this parliament. Legislating on their behalf would disenfranchise them, he says.

He says the UK does not want to legislate directly for them.

But the government has listend to the views of MPs. It is the majority view in this House that the overseas territories should have public registers of beneficial ownership.

So the government will not vote against the Hodge amendment, he says.

 

[not-bono-ever]

That is gonna hurt some of the commonwealth countries

 

[Sprocket.]

I was going to ask how many people know how many letters are in. Good thing your average Tory MP is so honest and trustworthy or else there'd be an awful lot of scope for shenanigans with such a system

Yes, allegedly would be better with apostrophes.

 

[not-bono-ever]

That is gonna hurt some of the commonwealth countries

eta

but not the crown dependancies like IoM/ Channel islands.

Good money launderers vs bad money launderers

 

[teqniq]

 

[gentlegreen]

.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Davies resigns. Brexit MPs spitting dummies. Talk of a confidence vote. But Mays allies are briefing that they think she would win it. But would she win it by enough?

 

[Pickman's model]

Davies resigns. Brexit MPs spitting dummies. Talk of a confidence vote. But Mays allies are briefing that they think she would win it. But would she win it by enough?

Hopefully not

 

[Pickman's model]

.View attachment 139083

Who is that helping the unfortunate woman up?

 

[Kaka Tim]

David Davis: 'I wouldn't have done a good job' of delivering May's Brexit plan – politics live

Rees-Mogg says no confidence vote in May not 'immediately' in the offing


Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative MP who chairs the pro-Brexit European Reseach Group, is hosting his LBC phone-in this morning. He has just said he does not think a no confidence vote in Theresa May is “immediately” in the offing. He said:

I don’t think a no-confidence vote is immediately in the offing.

I think what the prime minister needs to do is give up on the Chequers proposals which, David Davis has pointed out in his resignation letter, don’t actually deliver Brexit.

You’ll note that hint of menace in the word “immediately”. He seems to be implying that, if Theresa May does not drop her Chequers plan, there could be a leadership challenge.

empty threat? or will he ...er ... follow through? I cant see May dropping her plan. she has to stick to it or resign.

 

[Toast Rider]

Surely there has to be an election now. This is fucking madness.

Not that convinced Labour would win.

 

[Toast Rider]

.View attachment 139083

Aside from the obsequious class bullshit on display that looks like one of the most physically awkward poses imaginable. Like a sickly giraffe trying to stand for the first time....before beating down the working class

 

[Kaka Tim]

Surely there has to be an election now. This is fucking madness.

Not that convinced Labour would win.

The toires would have to lose control of parliament. That would only happen if a dozen tories defected (or the DUP pulled the plug - but they wont) - but we are some way from that. It could maybe happen if May ends up being replaced by Rees Mogg.

 

[Pickman's model]

Surely there has to be an election now. This is fucking madness.

Not that convinced Labour would win.

Tosh

 

[Nine Bob Note]

According to the Press Association, the Brexit department does not actually know whether Suella Braverman has resigned or not as a Brexit minister at the moment.

As I started to read that I genuinely thought they were going to say they didn't know who she was

 

[Lord Camomile]

Does the "they're going to keep her in position to carry the can for Brexit, then ditch her" theory still hold, or are things getting that bad that they'll actually pull the trigger now?

 

[existentialist]

Does the "they're going to keep her in position to carry the can for Brexit, then ditch her" theory still hold, or are things getting that bad that they'll actually pull the trigger now?

I suspect it's more a question of finding someone loonytunes enough to want to take over, but not so loonytunes as to render the party completely unelectable. And I am not sure those two sets have any intersection...

 

[newbie]

Surely there has to be an election now. This is fucking madness.

Not that convinced Labour would win.

no election will be called until the outcome of the World Cup matches is known. If England win May might decide to surf the wave of nationalism, or to run away from it.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Does the "they're going to keep her in position to carry the can for Brexit, then ditch her" theory still hold, or are things getting that bad that they'll actually pull the trigger now?

Yeah - i spose the answer lies with the Tory Brexiteers. Either they put up or shut up. They like gobbing off about betrayal from the sidelines as they see their beloved brexit dreams sold out to perfidious brussels - but will they actually do anything about it? I suspect most of them are grandstanding gobshites who know full well that anything other then BINO is politically impossible to deliver (which is exactly why Johnson hasn't resigned).

 

[existentialist]

no election will be called until the outcome of the World Cup matches is known. If England win May might decide to surf the wave of nationalism, or to run away from it.

I don't think they can just call an election - that was the point of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. Either 2/3 of Parliament must vote for an early GE, or a vote of no confidence in the present Government (which I think also needs a 2/3 majority) has to be passed.

No sitting government is going to want to see a vote of no confidence passed against them - it's not exactly electoral win material, so it would have to be a 2/3 majority vote for a GE. And I'm not sure I can see Labour, with its own problems, being keen on that right now - they might just want to let the current government twist in the Brexit wind for a bit longer.

She's properly lashed to the mast. I think the most likely outcome is that the 1922 get sufficient letters to prompt a leadership election, and then May ends up losing it (ie, staying as leader) by some slim margin.

 

[DownwardDog]

And I'm not sure I can see Labour, with its own problems, being keen on that right now - they might just want to let the current government twist in the Brexit wind for a bit longer.

Of course they would; they voted for a GE last time when they were 20 points behind.

We'd like to be in government but not just yet isn't a feasible position for the opposition.

 

[existentialist]

Of course they would; they voted for a GE last time when they were 20 points behind.

We'd like to be in government but not just yet isn't a feasible position for the opposition.

I don't think Labour would necessarily make that decision in such a unified way.

But yeah, I guess the lure of power would probably be too much to allow anyone to cynically pass up the chance, just to screw the incumbents a bit more.