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Theresa May's time is up

Kaka Tim said:
like i said - it shows how much some people care about brexit. Its not that labour are polling badly - its that the tory polling is surprisingly high.
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Yeah exactly. There's been a large swing back to the Tories from UKIP and those people aren't about to go voting Labour.

It might not be what bemused is getting at here but this has become the Labour right's standard question hasn't it - they've had to begrudgingly admit that Corbyn did OK but they're sticking with the fantasy that a nice centrist anti-brexiter would be doing miles better.
 
bemused said:
Whilst I agree polls showing election success aren't reliable, polls showing voter intent as barometer of how the parties are perceived haen't moved since the election. The Tory part is mess and I'm surprised that no polls have shown Labour developing a lead.
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Labour have had small leads in most of the polls this year. But yes, generally, I take your point. With the tories so fucked up at the moment, you'd normally expect the opposition to be well in the lead. The other side of the equation is, if it makes any sense to put it in these terms, Labour's vote at the gen election last year was 'overstated'. Their policies didn't get the usual level of scrutiny due to May's disastrous campaign and I'm not sure Labour will get a clean sweep of voters under 40 again. My own guess is that the tories will win the next election.
 
Orang Utan said:
Brazil is even more divided than our society though
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I’m not disputing that.

And usually I’d be quite happy to gloat at the Tory party tearing itself apart, I’m just really depressed about the future.

Folha de São Paulo’s headline the other day was “Economic Pessimism is the lowest in Three Years”. I’ll take that ;)
 
Here is a cheerful scenario for you. (Mind you, I disagree that nothing can be done other than to become an exile. And the idea of Britain Frits and National Action as modern day Freikorps is risible - but the line where he says some right groups are already "training for civil war " is interesting if he has evidence that this is others beside the BF and NA muppets....)

Incivil Contingencies: #1 The Dictatorship
 
Jeremiah18.17 said:
Here is a cheerful scenario for you. (Mind you, I disagree that nothing can be done other than to become an exile. And the idea of Britain Frits and National Action as modern day Freikorps is risible - but the line where he says some right groups are already "training for civil war " is interesting if he has evidence that this is others beside the BF and NA muppets....)

Incivil Contingencies: #1 The Dictatorship
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Well that was fun.
 
Wilf said:
Labour have had small leads in most of the polls this year. But yes, generally, I take your point. With the tories so fucked up at the moment, you'd normally expect the opposition to be well in the lead. The other side of the equation is, if it makes any sense to put it in these terms, Labour's vote at the gen election last year was 'overstated'. Their policies didn't get the usual level of scrutiny due to May's disastrous campaign and I'm not sure Labour will get a clean sweep of voters under 40 again. My own guess is that the tories will win the next election.
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The Tory poll performance is bolstered by two things though - the first is them representing Brexit, and the second is Corbyn himself (who a large part of the population believes, after being told on a near hourly basis, is a Communist). Those are not especially sound foundations on which to build a successful election campaign; Brexit will have probably blown up in their face by then, and if two leadership elections and the 2017 GE tell us anything its that Corbyn's ratings go up the more he (rather than the description of him filtered by the media) is exposed to the public.

Combine all that with the looming disasters caused by the way in which they have gone about austerity and they could easily get wiped out at the next election. What are they going to run on?
 
agricola said:
The Tory poll performance is bolstered by two things though - the first is them representing Brexit, and the second is Corbyn himself (who a large part of the population believes, after being told on a near hourly basis, is a Communist). Those are not especially sound foundations on which to build a successful election campaign; Brexit will have probably blown up in their face by then, and if two leadership elections and the 2017 GE tell us anything its that Corbyn's ratings go up the more he (rather than the description of him filtered by the media) is exposed to the public.

Combine all that with the looming disasters caused by the way in which they have gone about austerity and they could easily get wiped out at the next election. What are they going to run on?
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Even as a lexit minded person I agree that the UK's deal is going to be pretty bad and the disruption of the whole thing isn't going to help jobs, productivity etc. Logically, you'd expect that to blow up in the tories faces, but it's interesting that it hasn't done so far (they were actually ahead in the last poll I saw, by 1%). I just don't see the fallout flowing along easily predictable lines. Labour's lack of a clear position has worked reasonably well so far, but can't last long. The Tories have got 'the people voted for brexit. We delivered it. We are not Corbyn'. It's not much, but I think it may be enough. Week is a long time in politics and all that, though.
 
Wilf said:
Even as a lexit minded person I agree that the UK's deal is going to be pretty bad and the disruption of the whole thing isn't going to help jobs, productivity etc. Logically, you'd expect that to blow up in the tories faces, but it's interesting that it hasn't done so far (they were actually ahead in the last poll I saw, by 1%). I just don't see the fallout flowing along easily predictable lines. Labour's lack of a clear position has worked reasonably well so far, but can't last long. The Tories have got 'the people voted for brexit. We delivered it. We are not Corbyn'. It's not much, but I think it may be enough. Week is a long time in politics and all that, though.
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the tories have got as great if not greater differences between different wings of their party: e.g. see soubry demanding something be done about rees mogg and johnson. however, i always understood lexit to be despite the labour party, not engaged with it.
 
Wilf said:
Even as a lexit minded person I agree that the UK's deal is going to be pretty bad and the disruption of the whole thing isn't going to help jobs, productivity etc. Logically, you'd expect that to blow up in the tories faces, but it's interesting that it hasn't done so far (they were actually ahead in the last poll I saw, by 1%). I just don't see the fallout flowing along easily predictable lines. Labour's lack of a clear position has worked reasonably well so far, but can't last long. The Tories have got 'the people voted for brexit. We delivered it. We are not Corbyn'. It's not much, but I think it may be enough. Week is a long time in politics and all that, though.
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I am not sure why anyone would expect Brexit to have blown up by now - they aren't that far in the negotiations and none of the real issues that cause division have yet come up.

As for Labour's position on Brexit, for all the nonsense chatted by the usual suspects among the PLP it is far more coherent than the proposed alternative; being part of a customs union over which you have no say in is a daft idea, the only reason the Maquis are calling for it is because they are terrified to call for what they actually want (to stay in the EU). What makes it worse is that if they did what the Maquis demand, it would put Labour in the position of pre-approving the policy that May is very likely to be forced into (some form of customs union membership because of the Irish border, but with the advantages of EU membership thrown away in order to claim that they "delivered Brexit").
 
bemused said:
Why aren't Labour 20 points ahead in the polls? The Tories are in a place where Mogg, Johnson and that other smurf are being called the 'dream team'
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Considering what Labour polled in the GE, for them to be 20 points ahead the'd have to be polling a ~50% share of the vote. That's not happened since the 1950s and won't happen now. And when you did have parties getting just under ~50% of the vote you didn't have a 20 point difference between the two of them.
 
agricola said:
I am not sure why anyone would expect Brexit to have blown up by now - they aren't that far in the negotiations and none of the real issues that cause division have yet come up.

.
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It's hard to know how the deal will play out after it has been signed/we've left. Some of it will be obviously shit, the rest will be battled and spun over with the shitness only being proven 12 months on when the mega contracts with the rest of the world don't roll in. It's not impossible the tories will actually get a boost when the thing is signed - 'we are the party who gave you the vote, we are the party that delivered brexit'. Depends how it all goes of course, but it's not impossible. What is certain is the tories have had saturation bad news reporting around brexit ever since the 2017 election - splits, May looking weak, indecision, eyes swivelling, Eurobods laughing at us etc. Should have been the perfect scenario for their ratings to drop, failing to hit the mark on just about everything that defines a successful party/government. Brexit is a tremendous fuck up and it's the tories doing the fucking up, but it doesn't seem to be playing to the rules of normal politics.
 
redsquirrel said:
Considering what Labour polled in the GE, for them to be 20 points ahead the'd have to be polling a ~50% share of the vote. That's not happened since the 1950s and won't happen now. And when you did have parties getting just under ~50% of the vote you didn't have a 20 point difference between the two of them.
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That's assuming the Tory vote is immovable.
 
redsquirrel said:
No it's not, it assumes the opposite. Labour gaining 10% at the Tories expense (i.e. Labour ~50%, ~Con 30%)
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Which doesn’t seem to be happening..

“The YouGov poll for The Times puts the Tories on 43 per cent, up 1 point compared with last week, while Labour is on 39 per cent, down 3 points.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are on 8 points - up 2 points on last week's survey, according to the poll of 2,000 adults.”

Things just get worse and worse :(
 
redsquirrel said:
No it's not, it assumes the opposite. Labour gaining 10% at the Tories expense (i.e. Labour ~50%, ~Con 30%)
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At their peak vs. Corbyn May was up 22 points. Even with all the stuff going on Labour don't seem to be eeking out a lead. If they replace May with anyone with a functioning personality I think Labour will have real problems.

That said the likelihood of the Tory party makes Grove, Boris or leader is pretty high. Javid, Rudd or Patel would at least make it interesting.
 
bemused said:
At their peak vs. Corbyn May was up 22 points. Even with all the stuff going on Labour don't seem to be eeking out a lead. If they replace May with anyone with a functioning personality I think Labour will have real problems.

That said the likelihood of the Tory party makes Grove, Boris or leader is pretty high. Javid, Rudd or Patel would at least make it interesting.
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may does have a functioning personality. it's just a particularly shit one.
 
bemused said:
At their peak vs. Corbyn May was up 22 points. Even with all the stuff going on Labour don't seem to be eeking out a lead.
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No is was 20+ in a few polls, the average value was lower than that. Moreover that was in polls that were probably overestimating the Tory share of the vote.

The 2017 GE had a return to two party politics in England and Wales, under those circumstances you simply aren't going to get 20 point leads.
 
Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
It might not be what bemused is getting at here but this has become the Labour right's standard question hasn't it - they've had to begrudgingly admit that Corbyn did OK but they're sticking with the fantasy that a nice centrist anti-brexiter would be doing miles better.
Click to expand...

My general ghist is neither of these parties seem to be building any lead in the polls. The Tories have a caretaker manager and for whatever reason Labour haven't seem able to move the topic from brexit on to anything substaintive long enough to degrade the Tories polling.

I've no doubt Labour will do very well at the locals, but it does feel like the national debate is paused until ... I assume brexit.
 
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