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The Kiss Your Arse Goodbye Thread

The experts on here will undoubtedly know better, but...

'There are three general options within which U.S. policymakers would find a variation to respond to a Russian nuclear attack against Ukraine. The United States could opt to rhetorically decry a nuclear detonation but do nothing militarily. It could unleash nuclear weapons of its own. Or it could refrain from a nuclear counterattack but enter the war directly with large-scale conventional airstrikes and the mobilization of ground forces. All those alternatives are bad because no low-risk options exist for coping with the end of the nuclear taboo. A conventional war response is the least bad of the three because it avoids the higher risks of either the weaker or the stronger options.'
 
An interesting few sentences in that Foreign Affairs article: 'Alternatively, Washington could respond with nuclear strikes on a larger scale than the Russian first use, threatening disproportionate losses to Moscow if it tries further limited nuclear attacks. There are several problems with this heftier option. For one, if used against Russian forces inside Ukraine, U.S. nuclear weapons would inflict collateral damage on its own clients.'
 
RD2003 said:
The experts on here will undoubtedly know better, but...

'There are three general options within which U.S. policymakers would find a variation to respond to a Russian nuclear attack against Ukraine. The United States could opt to rhetorically decry a nuclear detonation but do nothing militarily. It could unleash nuclear weapons of its own. Or it could refrain from a nuclear counterattack but enter the war directly with large-scale conventional airstrikes and the mobilization of ground forces. All those alternatives are bad because no low-risk options exist for coping with the end of the nuclear taboo. A conventional war response is the least bad of the three because it avoids the higher risks of either the weaker or the stronger options.'
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Article was written in July this year, and I think since then (i.e. Jake Sullivan's recent speech) we can write off the first option as a response, leaving the other two, neither very hopefully in not escalating things I'd have thought?

The article also says, "...the danger would be greatest if the war were to turn decisively in Ukraine’s favor" - something that some seem to say has happened since that was written. Again, not very optimistic.
 
RD2003 said:
Dunno. They didn't brief me on that one. Demarcation lines.

The professional rivalry here in St Pete's is intense. And rather exhausting, to tell you the truth.
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Oh course. Rivalry between GRU and FSB is a real thing....difference being you can apply for employment with FSB. GRU finds you. And MH19 was defo GRU
 
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LDC said:
Article was written in July this year, and I think since then (i.e. Jake Sullivan's recent speech) we can write off the first option as a response, leaving the other two, neither very hopefully in not escalating things I'd have thought?

The article also says, "...the danger would be greatest if the war were to turn decisively in Ukraine’s favor" - something that some seem to say has happened since that was written. Again, not very optimistic.
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Yes, I found it interesting to return to a couple of articles I'd enjoyed earlier in the year. Things have certainly moved on, casting some commentary in starker meaning.
 
Hard to say to what extent Medvedev's rants reflect official thinking...


Dmitry Medvedev, the hawkish deputy chairman of the security council of Russia, Putin ally, and former prime minister and president of Russia, has issued another warning over the use of nuclear weapons to the west via a long screed on Telegram, in which he specifically criticises US president Joe Biden and new British prime minister Liz Truss.

In the course of the message, Medvedev says:

I have to remind you again – for those deaf who hear only themselves. Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if necessary, in predetermined cases, in strict accordance with the fundamentals of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence. If we or our allies are attacked using this type of weapon. Or if aggression with the use of conventional weapons threatens the very existence of our state. The president of Russia spoke about this directly recently.
In addition, we will do everything to prevent the appearance of nuclear weapons in our hostile neighbours. For example, in Nazi Ukraine, which is directly controlled today by Nato countries.
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He complains that Biden and Truss “demand that Russia remove its hand from its ‘nuclear button’” while accusing Truss of being “completely ready to immediately begin an exchange of nuclear strikes with our country”.

He then goes on to say that he does not believe the west would come to Ukraine’s aid or retaliate if Russia did use nuclear weapons, saying:

If the threat to Russia exceeds the established danger limit, we will have to respond. Without asking anyone’s permission, without long consultations. And it’s definitely not a bluff.
Imagine that Russia is forced to use the most formidable weapon against the Ukrainian regime, which has committed a large-scale act of aggression, which is dangerous for the very existence of our state. I believe that Nato will not directly intervene in the conflict even in this situation.
After all, the security of Washington, London, and Brussels is much more important for the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of Ukraine, which no one needs, even if it is abundantly supplied with various weapons.
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Russia-Ukraine war: fears Putin may annex regions on Friday; Nord Stream pipeline leaking after ‘unprecedented’ damage – live
 
Aladdin said:
Well in the interests of hoping to survive and possibly fooling myself..I bought a wind up flashlight and a wind up radio. They're coming from China so I will probably get them after my silhouette has been burned onto the garden wall.

Oh..and 120 iodine tablets.
Yummy.
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I came to see if there was a thread for this kind of thing.

I’ve been putting a go bag together since March. Battery pack, sewing kit, first aid stuff, soap. In my car there’s hats, gloves, spare thermals, water.

My partner thinks I’m mad, I mean he’s not wrong 😀

How is your wind up radio and torch? I want one but keep dithering over which to buy.
 
RD2003 said:
Hard to say to what extent Medvedev's rants reflect official thinking...


Dmitry Medvedev, the hawkish deputy chairman of the security council of Russia, Putin ally, and former prime minister and president of Russia, has issued another warning over the use of nuclear weapons to the west via a long screed on Telegram, in which he specifically criticises US president Joe Biden and new British prime minister Liz Truss.

In the course of the message, Medvedev says:


He complains that Biden and Truss “demand that Russia remove its hand from its ‘nuclear button’” while accusing Truss of being “completely ready to immediately begin an exchange of nuclear strikes with our country”.

He then goes on to say that he does not believe the west would come to Ukraine’s aid or retaliate if Russia did use nuclear weapons, saying:


Russia-Ukraine war: fears Putin may annex regions on Friday; Nord Stream pipeline leaking after ‘unprecedented’ damage – live
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'...Ukraine, which no one needs...' - hmmm - tell your boss Mr Medvedev.
 
zenie said:
I came to see if there was a thread for this kind of thing.

I’ve been putting a go bag together since March. Battery pack, sewing kit, first aid stuff, soap. In my car there’s hats, gloves, spare thermals, water.

My partner thinks I’m mad, I mean he’s not wrong 😀

How is your wind up radio and torch? I want one but keep dithering over which to buy.
Click to expand...


I've just been reading the list of "things to bring with you" in the event of hurricane Ian which is currently readying to barrel into the US.
I have updated my own bag of tricks to include not only my usual stuff, clothes, medicines, phone chargers and extra batteries, torch, passport and bank cards, first aid kit.

But in case of hurricane
..bring..
1. Birth certificate...🤔
2. Marriage certificate ...🤔
3. Medical and dental records..😳

As for the wind up radio..it works well. It has a little solar panel on too so that charges it well during the day.
I would not say its a radio that plays for long. I get roughly 30 mins. And then it needs to charge or I need to wind it up.
But its works..
 
Tanya1982 said:
A stash of powerful enough pills to kill you seems like the only way to deal with nuclear war. Then just go to bed, and hopefully be asleep when impact/incineration occurs.
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I have a bottle of oramorph knocking about at home. I had planned to keep it for a particularly bad flu but it's in the emergency stash now and that's one of its possible uses.
 
zenie said:
I came to see if there was a thread for this kind of thing.

I’ve been putting a go bag together since March. Battery pack, sewing kit, first aid stuff, soap. In my car there’s hats, gloves, spare thermals, water.

My partner thinks I’m mad, I mean he’s not wrong 😀

How is your wind up radio and torch? I want one but keep dithering over which to buy.
Click to expand...
Where will you go with your bag?.
 

Chechnya head : Moscow should consider low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine​

Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia’s region of Chechnya, said Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine after a major new defeat on the battlefield.

In a message on Telegram addressing Russia’s loss of its stronghold of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, Kadyrov wrote: “In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons”.

Kadyrov was speaking a day after President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions - including Donetsk, where Lyman is located - and placed them under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, saying Moscow would defend the lands it had seized “with all our strength and all our means”, Reuters reports.
 
Funny how all the guys with the biggest boners for this shit are the ones least likely to be directly affected by the consequences. Twas ever thus...
 
The end of the Cold War, we were told, was meant to usher in an era of peace and prosperity. Instead we have permanent instabilty, if not crisis, and are, as a result of decisons made back then, closer to the nuclear brink than we ever were when the Soviet Union still existed (perhaps 1962 excepted): https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/


'“It’s a low probability event, but it is the most serious case of nuclear brinkmanship since the 1980s” when the Cold War ended, said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “It is a very dangerous situation and it needs to be taken seriously by Western policymakers.”'

The West had been hoping that Ukrainian successes would force Putin to back down, but instead he is doubling down. “Time and again we are seeing that Vladimir Putin sees this as a big existential war and he’s ready to up the stakes if he is losing on the battlefield,” Gabuev said.

'“At the same time I don’t think the West will back down, so it’s a very hard challenge now. We are two or three steps away” from Russia failing to achieve its goals and resorting to what was once unthinkable."'
 
RD2003 said:

Chechnya head : Moscow should consider low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine​

Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia’s region of Chechnya, said Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine after a major new defeat on the battlefield.

In a message on Telegram addressing Russia’s loss of its stronghold of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, Kadyrov wrote: “In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons”.

Kadyrov was speaking a day after President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions - including Donetsk, where Lyman is located - and placed them under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, saying Moscow would defend the lands it had seized “with all our strength and all our means”, Reuters reports.
Click to expand...

Yes, the same guy who was gonna have strong personal words with Putin if things didn't improve invasion wise a couple of weeks ago.
 
The end of the Cold War, we were told, was meant to usher in an era of peace and prosperity. Instead we have permanent instabilty, if not crisis, and are, as a result of decisons made back then, closer to the nuclear brink than we ever were when the Soviet Union still existed (perhaps 1962 excepted): https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/



'“It’s a low probability event, but it is the most serious case of nuclear brinkmanship since the 1980s” when the Cold War ended, said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “It is a very dangerous situation and it needs to be taken seriously by Western policymakers.”'

The West had been hoping that Ukrainian successes would force Putin to back down, but instead he is doubling down. “Time and again we are seeing that Vladimir Putin sees this as a big existential war and he’s ready to up the stakes if he is losing on the battlefield,” Gabuev said.

'“At the same time I don’t think the West will back down, so it’s a very hard challenge now. We are two or three steps away” from Russia failing to achieve its goals and resorting to what was once unthinkable."'
[/QUOTE]


Here's a poser for you. What does the west backing down mean?
 
I don't expect any answer BTW. Just keep posting about what went wrong in the 90s. I mean I could do a whole book on that and that's just my personal life <boom tish etc>
Bit pointless though yeah.
 
xenon said:
.

And yes exactly. I mean you posted it. So, and?
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Just failing to understand why you think a couple of weeks make a difference. He's reported as being close to the Kremlin, so who knows how much influence he really has.
 
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