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The Kiss Your Arse Goodbye Thread

xenon said:
I don't expect any answer BTW. Just keep posting about what went wrong in the 90s. I mean I could do a whole book on that and that's just my personal life <boom tish etc>
Bit pointless though yeah.
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Bet your life didn't go as wrong in the '90s as mine did. Made me the cunt I am now.
 
xenon said:
The end of the Cold War, we were told, was meant to usher in an era of peace and prosperity. Instead we have permanent instabilty, if not crisis, and are, as a result of decisons made back then, closer to the nuclear brink than we ever were when the Soviet Union still existed (perhaps 1962 excepted): https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/



'“It’s a low probability event, but it is the most serious case of nuclear brinkmanship since the 1980s” when the Cold War ended, said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “It is a very dangerous situation and it needs to be taken seriously by Western policymakers.”'

The West had been hoping that Ukrainian successes would force Putin to back down, but instead he is doubling down. “Time and again we are seeing that Vladimir Putin sees this as a big existential war and he’s ready to up the stakes if he is losing on the battlefield,” Gabuev said.

'“At the same time I don’t think the West will back down, so it’s a very hard challenge now. We are two or three steps away” from Russia failing to achieve its goals and resorting to what was once unthinkable."'
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Here's a poser for you. What does the west backing down mean?
[/QUOTE]
Know no more than you. But somebody had better back down at some point.
 
RD2003 said:
Just failing to understand why you think a couple of weeks make a difference. He's reported as being close to the Kremlin, so who knows how much influence he really has.
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I would guess close to fuck all. He's dependant on Putin. not the other way round. Has to look like the hardman hatchet guy to keep his own side in line.
 
xenon said:
I would guess close to fuck all. He's dependant on Putin. not the other way round. Has to look like the hardman hatchet guy to keep his own side in line.
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Perhaps. But none of us know. And if Putin is as desperate as he's reported to be, who knows who he's listening to?
 
Humberto said:
Scared?
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Well, a bit maybe, yeah. In the1980s I took succour from The Miltant's confidence (although not a member, I was impressed by their 'Scouse' delivery and confident air) that neither side would seek the destruction of their own economic systems and societies.

Things have become a lot less rational in the subsequent period. The rational USSR is gone, replaced by people who have evolved into mystical nationalists, while in the West we are ruled by student union politicians who think peace comes through war.
 
Kadryovite forces are adept at terrorising unarmed civilians by way of torture, rape and murder for shits and giggles but even Wagner mercs have dim views of their prowess as actual fighters, in Ukraine and Syria.

There's always been at best unease and at worst barely concealed mutual contempt between Russians and the 'pro-Russian' Chechens Putin used to cow the republic into submission, and of course Ramzan got his power and riches, but his position isn't so secure these days, is it? He needs this war. Is it true that the FSB sneakily passed information to the Ukrainian defence ministry so the airforce could annihilate a Kadyrovite column en-route to Kyiv back in Feb/March?
 
seventh bullet said:
Kadryovite forces are adept at terrorising unarmed civilians by way of torture, rape and murder for shits and giggles but even Wagner mercs have dim views of their prowess as actual fighters, in Ukraine and Syria.

There's always been at best unease and at worst barely concealed mutual contempt between Russians and the 'pro-Russian' Chechens Putin used to cow the republic into submission, and of course Ramzan got his power and riches, but his position isn't so secure these days, is it? He needs this war. Is it true that the FSB sneakily passed information to the Ukrainian defence ministry so the airforce could annihilate a Kadyrovite column en-route to Kyiv back in Feb/March?
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Yes, makes you wonder. I remember what the Russians I met in Moscow 1990-91 used to say about the Chechens and Georgians-the latter being 'Chorniye' (blacks). They were 'mafia' before the Russian mafia was properly a thing, as they say these days... It was common and normal to flag down random cars for a lift at the time, and I remember being told never to get in a car with 'Chorniye' (it was young 'liberals' telling me this.) 'Notice how the taxi drivers never stop for Chorniye?' I was asked while travelling through central Moscow in a car (yes, it was a Lada, and the driver was very proud to own one). 'They can't be trusted to pay, and are always trouble.' Chechens, meanwhile, seemed to be beyond the pale. This in a society that was educated in 'communist' anti-colonialism and anti-racism.
 
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RD2003 said:
Yes, makes you wonder. I remember what the Russians I met in Moscow 1990-91 used to say about the Chechans and Georgians-the latter being 'Chorniye' (blacks). They were 'mafia' before the Russian mafia was properly a thing, as they say these days... It was common and normal to flag down random cars for a lift at the time, and I remember being told never to get in a car with 'Chorniye' (it was young 'liberals' telling me this.) 'Notice how the taxi drivers never stop for Chorniye?' I was asked while travelling through central Moscow in a car (yes, it was a Lada, and the driver was very proud to own one). 'They can't be trusted to pay, and are always trouble.' Chechans, meanwhile, seemed to be beyond the pale. This in a society that was educated in 'communist' anti-colonialism and anti-racism.
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Every thread about you. Wind ya knack in.
 
RD2003 said:
Yes, makes you wonder. I remember what the Russians I met in Moscow 1990-91 used to say about the Chechans and Georgians-the latter being 'Chorniye' (blacks). They were 'mafia' before the Russian mafia was properly a thing, as they say these days... It was common and normal to flag down random cars for a lift at the time, and I remember being told never to get in a car with 'Chorniye' (it was young 'liberals' telling me this.) 'Notice how the taxi drivers never stop for Chorniye?' I was asked while travelling through central Moscow in a car (yes, it was a Lada, and the driver was very proud to own one). 'They can't be trusted to pay, and are always trouble.' Chechans, meanwhile, seemed to be beyond the pale. This in a society that was educated in 'communist' anti-colonialism and anti-racism.
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Heard anti-Chechen racism in Moscow. Criminals, lowlife thugs and crooks, can't be trusted etc. Georgians in a similar vein regarding organised crime.
 
seventh bullet said:
Heard anti-Chechen racism in Moscow. Criminals, lowlife thugs and crooks, can't be trusted etc. Georgians in a similar vein regarding organised crime.
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Lots of Russians seemed to love the food in Georgian restaurants, meanwhile (those restaurants were... an experience in '90-91.) 'The best restaurant is your own kitchen now,' I was told (by somebody with good black market access). 'You go to a restaurant and you never know. At the next table there might be, you know, the man with the gun...'

Maybe this is tangentially related to kissing your arse goodbye...
 
www.theguardian.com

Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

'Senator Marco Rubio, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee told CNN that Putin was down to two choices: established defensive lines or withdraw and lose territory.

Rubio said he believed it “quite possible” that Putin could strike distribution points where US and allied supplies are entering Ukraine, including inside Poland. The senator acknowledged the nuclear threat, but he said most worries about “a Russian attack inside Nato territory, for example, aiming at the airport in Poland or some other distribution point”.

“Nato will have to respond to it,” he said. “How it will respond, I think a lot of it will depend on the nature of the attack and the scale and scope of it.”

But as a senator privy to Pentagon briefings, Rubio resisted being drawn on whether he’d seen evidence that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

“Certainly, the risk is probably higher today than it was a month ago,” Rubio said, predicting that Russia would probably take an intermediate step.

“He may strike one of these logistical points. And that logistical point may not be inside … Ukraine. To me, that is the area that I focus on the most, because it has a tactical aspect to it. And I think he probably views it as less escalatory. Nato may not.” '
 
Nylock said:
Not sure where Rubio gets the idea that Putin would believe that a Russian attack on a NATO logistics hub would be less escalatory than one inside Ukraine tbf.
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I think he thinks that Putin thinks a conventional attack in Poland would be less escalatory than a nuclear attack in Ukraine.
 
RD2003 said:
www.theguardian.com

Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

'Senator Marco Rubio, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee told CNN that Putin was down to two choices: established defensive lines or withdraw and lose territory.

Rubio said he believed it “quite possible” that Putin could strike distribution points where US and allied supplies are entering Ukraine, including inside Poland. The senator acknowledged the nuclear threat, but he said most worries about “a Russian attack inside Nato territory, for example, aiming at the airport in Poland or some other distribution point”.

“Nato will have to respond to it,” he said. “How it will respond, I think a lot of it will depend on the nature of the attack and the scale and scope of it.”

But as a senator privy to Pentagon briefings, Rubio resisted being drawn on whether he’d seen evidence that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

“Certainly, the risk is probably higher today than it was a month ago,” Rubio said, predicting that Russia would probably take an intermediate step.

“He may strike one of these logistical points. And that logistical point may not be inside … Ukraine. To me, that is the area that I focus on the most, because it has a tactical aspect to it. And I think he probably views it as less escalatory. Nato may not.” '
Click to expand...

If we get to the position above (Russian use of a nuclear weapon that gets a massive conventional response) I imagine the Russian response will be a large scale nuclear one, I can't see any other realistic outcome? Their conventional forces will be fucked, they'll have the choice to either completely capitulate or 'surrender' (even if it's not called that) or escalate with what they have left.

I guess the calculation is they know what the response will be, so hopefully they see 'sense', look for ways out of the current situation and find a way to somehow declare it a victory of sorts.
 
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Given the reports about Putin's state of health, I would be placing no bets on rational behaviour on his part.

The concept of using battlefield nuclear weapons is not new, they were pencilled in for about day five had the Warsaw Pact invaded, and that was from the NATO side. We were told that USSR kit wasn't as good as ours etc etc etc but were also very aware of the 'Haig Doctrine' 'Of course we will win, we have more men', except this time it was the Warsaw pact who had more men, artillery, tanks etc, and more importantly, weren't dependant of getting the kit from the US, Canada, Australia etc by air or sea to the battlefront.

Ukraine has applied for NATO membership. If granted, then we would be committed to sending what troops we have.

The whole thing is a steaming pile of shit, driven by one man's ego. The only realistic hope is that one of Putin's people puts a bullet in his head, and Russia withdraws from Ukraine.
 
Sasaferrato said:
Given the reports about Putin's state of health, I would be placing no bets on rational behaviour on his part.

The concept of using battlefield nuclear weapons is not new, they were pencilled in for about day five had the Warsaw Pact invaded, and that was from the NATO side. We were told that USSR kit wasn't as good as ours etc etc etc but were also very aware of the 'Haig Doctrine' 'Of course we will win, we have more men', except this time it was the Warsaw pact who had more men, artillery, tanks etc, and more importantly, weren't dependant of getting the kit from the US, Canada, Australia etc by air or sea to the battlefront.

Ukraine has applied for NATO membership. If granted, then we would be committed to sending what troops we have.

The whole thing is a steaming pile of shit, driven by one man's ego. The only realistic hope is that one of Putin's people puts a bullet in his head, and Russia withdraws from Ukraine.
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My bet, fwiw (not much):
1. No one is going to use nukes.
2. NATO will not be admitting Ukraine any time in the foreseeable. Certainly not while this war is on.
3. Putin's annexation of the eastern territories was a Hail Mary pass because he doesn't want to/can't use nukes. This consultation on the boundaries of the 'annexed' territories is an admission of this.
4. Putin will be gone by Christmas.
5. Après lui, le déluge
 
bluescreen said:
My bet, fwiw (not much):
1. No one is going to use nukes.
2. NATO will not be admitting Ukraine any time in the foreseeable. Certainly not while this war is on.
3. Putin's annexation of the eastern territories was a Hail Mary pass because he doesn't want to/can't use nukes. This consultation on the boundaries of the 'annexed' territories is an admission of this.
4. Putin will be gone by Christmas.
5. Après lui, le déluge
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Happy days are here again
 
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