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The Kiss Your Arse Goodbye Thread

Sasaferrato said:
Given the reports about Putin's state of health, I would be placing no bets on rational behaviour on his part.

The concept of using battlefield nuclear weapons is not new, they were pencilled in for about day five had the Warsaw Pact invaded, and that was from the NATO side. We were told that USSR kit wasn't as good as ours etc etc etc but were also very aware of the 'Haig Doctrine' 'Of course we will win, we have more men', except this time it was the Warsaw pact who had more men, artillery, tanks etc, and more importantly, weren't dependant of getting the kit from the US, Canada, Australia etc by air or sea to the battlefront.

Ukraine has applied for NATO membership. If granted, then we would be committed to sending what troops we have.

The whole thing is a steaming pile of shit, driven by one man's ego. The only realistic hope is that one of Putin's people puts a bullet in his head, and Russia withdraws from Ukraine.
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Bullet > head not necessarily followed by Russia going home
 
If Putian gave the order for a nuke, what are the chances of it being carried out ? I know its well hypothetical, but even the crap russian army general staff would know the game is up if that order comes through and is actioned. Self preservation would come into play. Whatevs
 
not-bono-ever said:
If Putian gave the order for a nuke, what are the chances of it being carried out ? I know its well hypothetical, but even the crap russian army general staff would know the game is up if that order comes through and is actioned. Self preservation would come into play. Whatevs
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There's a whole industry dedicated to guessing and reacting to these potential scenarios, from what I'm told there is a real risk of escalation, including nuclear. I don't however see any upside in abandoning the Ukranian resistance. Especially at this point. Zelenski is worth supporting in this war, even if from a purely selfish view. Nevertheless the horrors Russia has inflicted makes it a point of principal too. It's essential they are supported to press the advantage.
 
not-bono-ever said:
If Putian gave the order for a nuke, what are the chances of it being carried out ? I know its well hypothetical, but even the crap russian army general staff would know the game is up if that order comes through and is actioned. Self preservation would come into play. Whatevs
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I'm not sure to what extent Russian general's are motivated by self-preservation but if they are, don't you think they'll chose the bunker over the fifth floor window?
 
bluescreen said:
My bet, fwiw (not much):
1. No one is going to use nukes.
2. NATO will not be admitting Ukraine any time in the foreseeable. Certainly not while this war is on.
3. Putin's annexation of the eastern territories was a Hail Mary pass because he doesn't want to/can't use nukes. This consultation on the boundaries of the 'annexed' territories is an admission of this.
4. Putin will be gone by Christmas.
5. Après lui, le déluge
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You didn’t address the ‘reoccurrence’ of Putins health issues ?
 
Genuine question:

Cor those who were arlund, when the Soviet Union were in Afghanistan, was there this much talk about nuclear war? Obviously ignoring the lack of social media.
 
steveo87 said:
Genuine question:

Cor those who were arlund, when the Soviet Union were in Afghanistan, was there this much talk about nuclear war? Obviously ignoring the lack of social media.
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No, because it was a guerilla war against a Soviet backed government.
 
www.theguardian.com

Biden warns world would face ‘Armageddon’ if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine

In his starkest assessment yet, US president says world is the closest it has come to nuclear catastrophe in sixty years
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

'US intelligence agencies believe that Putin has come to see defeat in Ukraine as an existential threat to his regime, which he associates with an existential threat to Russia, potentially justifying, according to his worldview, the use of nuclear weapons.'
 
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Russian officials have begun to “prepare their society” for the possible use of nuclear weapons in the war. In an interview with the BBC, Zelenskiy denied having called for strikes on Russia, urging instead for pre-emptive sanctions to be imposed on Moscow.
 
On the other hand... (Guardian live blog)

The US does not have indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons, the White House said. Asked about Biden’s comments, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters: “He was reinforcing what we have been saying, which is how seriously ... we take these threats.”
 
RD2003 said:
On the other hand... (Guardian live blog)

The US does not have indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons, the White House said. Asked about Biden’s comments, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters: “He was reinforcing what we have been saying, which is how seriously ... we take these threats.”
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And what do you think? I reckon Zelenskiy -who will have pretty good intel - is winding up the Russian media in the hope of turning the ratchet on Putin but I could be way off beam.
 
bluescreen said:
And what do you think? I reckon Zelenskiy -who will have pretty good intel - is winding up the Russian media in the hope of turning the ratchet on Putin but I could be way off beam.
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Like many others, I think it's utter madness to have got to the stage where nuclear war is talked of as a serious possibility.

A chance existed, when Russia was on its knees, to do things differently, but the west continued to treat Russia as an enemy. NATO expansion alienating a largely pro-Western Russian government (Yeltsin's) blah blah blah... Leading eventually to the a marked change in the apparent thinking of Putin and his gang.

Perhaps this is how it was always going to turn out.

Personally, I'm glad I never had any desire whatsoever to have kids.

As for Zelensky, who knows? He's inexperienced, but as a politician, he's performing rather well. Pity he's either a neo-liberal zealot or under constant pressure from neo-liberal zealots.
 
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RD2003 said:
Like many others, I think it's utter madness to have got to the stage where nuclear war is talked of as a serious possibility.

A chance existed, when Russia was on its knees, to do things differently, but the west continued to treat Russia as an enemy. NATO expansion alienating a largely pro-Western Russian government blah blah blah... Leading eventually to the a marked change in the apparent thinking of Putin and his gang.

Perhaps this is how it was always going to turn out.

Personally, I'm glad I never had any desire whatsoever to have kids.
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I’m with you on the not having kids thing. I’m more ashamed about climate change though. We could have done something about that.
This is one 70 year old nut bag with imperial ambitions. Shame one arsehole could potentially end human civilization. I’m beginning to get a clearer understanding of what Oppenheimer meant (about himself and the Manhattan project) when he said ‘Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds’. He could see the predictable consequence of creating nuclear weapons.

eta: Funnily enough i always thought Kashmir would be the flash point.
 
Ming said:
I’m with you on the not having kids thing. I’m more ashamed about climate change though. We could have done something about that.
This is one 70 year old nut bag with imperial ambitions. Shame one arsehole could potentially end human civilization. I’m beginning to get a clearer understanding of what Oppenheimer meant (about himself and the Manhattan project) when he said ‘Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds’. He could see the predictable consequence of creating nuclear weapons.
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It isn't just one 70 year-old nutbag. His current, apparent thinking belongs to a strand of thought which has always been prominent in Russia. It took events to bring it to the fore.

It's inconceivable that you can invent something that will never be used for all time. Not that nuclear weapons haven't been used. The hypocrisy of the US has, as we know, been noted in Moscow.
 
RD2003 said:
Like many others, I think it's utter madness to have got to the stage where nuclear war is talked of as a serious possibility.

A chance existed, when Russia was on its knees, to do things differently, but the west continued to treat Russia as an enemy.
Click to expand...
I agree with this, there was a chance to completely change the rhetoric, to have Russia in Europe.
 
RD2003 said:
Like many others, I think it's utter madness to have got to the stage where nuclear war is talked of as a serious possibility.
Click to expand...
Tbh I don't know anyone who thinks it isn't utter madness to have got to this stage. But people differ about who is most responsible for that. You talk a lot about the inevitability of Putin's invasion; I reckon Ukraine's resistance was fairly predictable too. The strength and endurance of that resistance perhaps less so, but the initial support of NATO & co for an already war-hardened Ukraine could perhaps have been predicted by anyone who looked at a map. What has been more surprising to some of us on here, me included, has been the unpreparedness and incompetence of the Russian forces. Obviously. And one of Zelenskiy's weapons is the media, which he is deploying, I reckon, with some finesse right now.

I hope.
 
I am not sure how predictable NATO and USA support for Ukraine was in the Kremlin though. Russia pretty much stood by while the US humiliated itself in Afghanistan, and earlier when they were initially more successful in Iraq, Syria, perhaps Putin expected that NATO and the US would leave them be with their local skirmish.
 
weltweit said:
I am not sure how predictable NATO and USA support for Ukraine was in the Kremlin though. Russia pretty much stood by while the US humiliated itself in Afghanistan, and earlier when they were initially more successful in Iraq, Syria, perhaps Putin expected that NATO and the US would leave them be with their local skirmish.
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Good point. This was Putin's mile after the metaphorical inches (but obvs not inches to those concerned :snarl: ).
 
bluescreen said:
Tbh I don't know anyone who thinks it isn't utter madness to have got to this stage. But people differ about who is most responsible for that. You talk a lot about the inevitability of Putin's invasion; I reckon Ukraine's resistance was fairly predictable too. The strength and endurance of that resistance perhaps less so, but the initial support of NATO & co for an already war-hardened Ukraine could perhaps have been predicted by anyone who looked at a map. What has been more surprising to some of us on here, me included, has been the unpreparedness and incompetence of the Russian forces. Obviously. And one of Zelenskiy's weapons is the media, which he is deploying, I reckon, with some finesse right now.

I hope.
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I thought that a full invasion was quite likely since before the developments in Ukraine of 2014. I also thought it would be a grave mistake (Instead of being a complete no-mark, I should be paid half a million a year, at least, by some wanky think-tank.)

I'm not surprised by the weaknesses of the Russian army, however. I spent a lot of time in the SU/Russia when the country was going bankrupt before your eyes, and being taken over by gangsters. I said to people at the time that their future choice was going to be between gangsters and gangsters. Few wanted to hear the message, even if they could see it for themselves. Genuine liberals were, as you could perceive if you looked hard enough, in hock to gangsters, as were nationalists. Both camps had gangsters in their leadership. A burgeoning independent labour movement (which few listened to due to the hysteria of the times) was cowed by gangsters, and also had gangsters in its leadersip and ranks. All of this was, to a large extent, a result of western input/advice at a time when there was neo-liberal hubris in the west. This is not to say it's what the neo-liberals in the west actually wanted for Russia. They were fanatics, inadvertently empowering mafia capitalism. Since then, mafia capitaism has, as was inevitable, been brought to order by the Putin gang without being destroyed, but in a culture of total corruption, how can you build a truly up-to-date, fully competent armed forces? More or less everybody in Russia operates under the shackles of the system, and the shackles in their own minds, which results from Russia always having operated like this in different guises, affecting all parts of the political spectrum.

I don't blame the Russians for the delusions that existed at the end of the USSR (the delusions existed largely in Moscow and St. P., and the other major cities. I doubt if the delusions ever overcame a general despair and desire to just get on with things no matter what among the majority. Which explains a lot about the Putin regime.)
 
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RD2003 said:
I thought that a full invasion was quite likely since before the developments in Ukraine of 2014. I also thought it would be a grave mistake (Instead of being a complete no-mark, I should be paid half a million a year, at least, by some wanky think-tank.)

I'm not surprised by the weaknesses of the Russian army, however. I spent a lot of time in the SU/Russia when the country was going bankrupt before your eyes, and being taken over by gangsters. I said to people at the time that their future choice was going to be between gangsters and gangsters. Few wanted to hear the message, even if they could see it for themselves. Genuine liberals were, as you could perceive if you looked hard enough, in hock to gangsters, as were nationalists. Both camps had gangsters in their leadership. A burgeoning independent labour movement (which few listened to due to the hysteria of the times) was cowed by gangsters, and also had gangsters in its leadersip and ranks. All of this was, to a large extent, a result of western input/advice at a time when there was neo-liberal hubris in the west. This is not to say it's what the neo-liberals in the west actually wanted for Russia. They were fanatics, inadvertently empowering mafia capitalism. Since then, mafia capitaism has, as was inevitable, been brought to order by the Putin gang, but in a culture of total corruption, how can you build a truly up-to-date, fully competent armed forces? More or less everybody in Russia operates under the shackles of the system, and the shackles in their own minds, which result from Russia always having operated like this in different guises affects all parts of the political spectrum.
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Thanks. Interesting. Mafia capitalism doesn't seem to have disabled western armed forces to quite the same extent.
 
RD2003 said:
I thought that a full invasion was quite likely since before the developments in Ukraine of 2014. I also thought it would be a grave mistake (Instead of being a complete no-mark, I should be paid half a million a year, at least, by some wanky think-tank.)

I'm not surprised by the weaknesses of the Russian army, however. I spent a lot of time in the SU/Russia when the country was going bankrupt before your eyes, and being taken over by gangsters. I said to people at the time that their future choice was going to be between gangsters and gangsters. Few wanted to hear the message, even if they could see it for themselves. Genuine liberals were, as you could perceive if you looked hard enough, in hock to gangsters, as were nationalists. Both camps had gangsters in their leadership. A burgeoning independent labour movement (which few listened to due to the hysteria of the times) was cowed by gangsters, and also had gangsters in its leadersip and ranks. All of this was, to a large extent, a result of western input/advice at a time when there was neo-liberal hubris in the west. This is not to say it's what the neo-liberals in the west actually wanted for Russia. They were fanatics, inadvertently empowering mafia capitalism. Since then, mafia capitaism has, as was inevitable, been brought to order by the Putin gang without being destroyed, but in a culture of total corruption, how can you build a truly up-to-date, fully competent armed forces? More or less everybody in Russia operates under the shackles of the system, and the shackles in their own minds, which result from Russia always having operated like this in different guises affects all parts of the political spectrum.
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You recognize that Russia was fucked by gangsters, but you don't appear to make the obvious connection between kremlin-backed gangsters stealing everything, and the kremlin then having to find an external enemy to blame for this. You accept there was in fact an external enemy, and I don't really think there was. "The west" became an enemy (again) because the kremlin needed one, a believable one, to distract from the crimes of its nearest and dearest against its own people. Viz also Chechnyan Muslims.
 
bluescreen said:
Thanks. Interesting. Mafia capitalism doesn't seem to have disabled western armed forces to quite the same extent.
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Because our political and economic mafias exist behind the screen of legitimacy, with the advantage of (by and large) an old and experienced political system which neutralises conflict, and a media that obfuscates while being widely viewed as impartial. In Russia, neither the Tsars nor the Soviets, nor their successors, have ever been widely accepted as truly legitimate, and few really believe what the media tells them, but people, again by and large, seem to prefer stability to upheaval, and not without good cause. The collective memory has absorbed what chaos looks like under both the (always precarious) establishment and those who seek revolution.
 
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