I thought that a full invasion was quite likely since before the developments in Ukraine of 2014. I also thought it would be a grave mistake (Instead of being a complete no-mark, I should be paid half a million a year, at least, by some wanky think-tank.)
I'm not surprised by the weaknesses of the Russian army, however. I spent a lot of time in the SU/Russia when the country was going bankrupt before your eyes, and being taken over by gangsters. I said to people at the time that their future choice was going to be between gangsters and gangsters. Few wanted to hear the message, even if they could see it for themselves. Genuine liberals were, as you could perceive if you looked hard enough, in hock to gangsters, as were nationalists. Both camps had gangsters in their leadership. A burgeoning independent labour movement (which few listened to due to the hysteria of the times) was cowed by gangsters, and also had gangsters in its leadersip and ranks. All of this was, to a large extent, a result of western input/advice at a time when there was neo-liberal hubris in the west. This is not to say it's what the neo-liberals in the west actually wanted for Russia. They were fanatics, inadvertently empowering mafia capitalism. Since then, mafia capitaism has, as was inevitable, been brought to order by the Putin gang without being destroyed, but in a culture of total corruption, how can you build a truly up-to-date, fully competent armed forces? More or less everybody in Russia operates under the shackles of the system, and the shackles in their own minds, which result from Russia always having operated like this in different guises affects all parts of the political spectrum.