The Brexit process

[SpookyFrank]

Well its only a 'probably' [hard Brexit] but there has no indication at all from EU leaders so far that maintaining access to the single market will be possible without accepting free movement of labour. Maybe they are just bluffing.

Bluffing is for when the other players can't see your cards. When everyone can see that you don't even have any cards it's just stuidity.

 

[magneze]

It's interesting that effectively all EU laws will be transferred over to UK law when we leave. As opposed to the "bonfire of rights" that was definitely going to happen. Apparently.

 

[DotCommunist]

It's interesting that effectively all EU laws will be transferred over to UK law when we leave. As opposed to the "bonfire of rights" that was definitely going to happen. Apparently.

its almost as if all three campaigns were full of bollocks and bullshit or something

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Well its only a 'probably' [hard Brexit] but there has no indication at all from EU leaders so far that maintaining access to the single market will be possible without accepting free movement of labour. Maybe they are just bluffing.

You are confusing access to the single market with membership of the single market. They are two entirely different things, and no one has suggested we won't have access as that would be absurd. The most likely outcome is that we get a trade deal similar to the one the Canadians have just signed with the EU.

 

[gosub]

You are confusing access to the single market with membership of the single market. They are two entirely different things, and no one has suggested we won't have access as that would be absurd. The most likely outcome is that we get a trade deal similar to the one the Canadians have just signed with the EU.

The one that took seven years and doesn't include financial passporting?

 

[weltweit]

Make sure in the Brexit process, people say what they mean and mean what they say ..

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

The one that took seven years and doesn't include financial passporting?

Yes, but then we are not starting from the same position as Canada, are we? All current EU law is going to be automatically enshrined in UK law with the act that the government are proposing, so in principle there isn't much in the way of getting a deal done fairly promptly. Harmonisation of our markets has already happened; we are four fifths of the way there already.

The key variable acting as a potential road block here are the opinions of other EU member states as to what deal we should get. How that pans out remains to be seen.

 

[Raheem]

The key variable acting as a potential road block here are the opinions of other EU member states as to what deal we should get. How that pans out remains to be seen.

Yes, there is that minor detail. Getting an agreement is, like to imply, going to be a doddle almost from start to finish. It's only the bit where the other parties to the agreement get to express their view that's going to be tricky.

 

[Smangus]

The key variable acting as a potential road block here are the opinions of other EU member states as to what deal we should get. How that pans out remains to be seen.

Probably something along the lines of "Fuck those gobby arsey cunts!"

 

[gosub]

Probably something along the lines of "Fuck those gobby arsey cunts!"

No, we do actually need a deal, we can't say that.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Yes, there is that minor detail. Getting an agreement is, like to imply, going to be a doddle almost from start to finish. It's only the bit where the other parties to the agreement get to express their view that's going to be tricky.

There are rational reasons for all involved to come to an agreement swiftly. I'm not panicking in the slightest myself.

 

[Smangus]

No, we do actually need a deal, we can't say that.

Yeah but how likely are we to get one in 2 years, that's not long In negotiation terms. I reckon we'll default to the worst setting anyhow after that time.

 

[red & green]

The only deal uk will get is the one Eu give them - the Great Repeal bill is going to take along time cost a fortune and lead to parliament dealing with nothing else - trade deals take a minimum of 7 years to negotiate

This is all about Tory party schisms nothing else

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

trade deals take a minimum of 7 years to negotiate

Bollocks.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) has crunched the numbers on how long it has taken the US to agree 20 bilateral trade deals.

The answer? One and a half years, on average. And more than three and a half years to get to the implementation stage.

 

[red & green]

See

Leaving the EU would mean renegotiating more than 100 trade agreements

 

[Raheem]

There are rational reasons for all involved to come to an agreement swiftly. I'm not panicking in the slightest myself.

It's rational to come to an agreement swiftly if you like what you're agreeing to. If not, the rational thing is to hold out.

But it isn't the speed we need worry about, IMO. There's a scenario where is takes 20 years, but the EU accommodates us and we just remain members until we're ready. Slow, but no harm done. Then there's a scenario where they drop us like a hot turd in 2019, because we're governed by amateurs. Because it's not clear how we are supposed to reach a domestic consensus as to what we actually want out of the negotiation, that's where our real worry is.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

See

Leaving the EU would mean renegotiating more than 100 trade agreements

See what? You made a patently false claim which your link does not substantiate.

trade deals take a minimum of 7 years to negotiate

 

[red & green]

But regardless it contradicts yours

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

It's rational to come to an agreement swiftly if you like what you're agreeing to. If not, the rational thing is to hold out.

But it isn't the speed we need worry about, IMO. There's a scenario where is takes 20 years, but the EU accommodates us and we just remain members until we're ready. Slow, but no harm done. Then there's a scenario where they drop us like a hot turd in 2019, because we're governed by amateurs. Because it's not clear how we are supposed to reach a domestic consensus as to what we actually want out of the negotiation, that's where our real worry is.

There's also a scenario where they declare war on us and mount an invasion via the channel tunnel. Some scenario's are less likely than others though.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

But regardless it contradicts yours

Or really? Where's it do that then? Besides, even if it does...

Pia Hüttl is an affiliate fellow at Bruegel. Prior to this, she worked as a Trainee in the Monetary Policy Stance Division of the European Central Bank, and as a Blue Book Stagiaire at the monetary policy, exchange rate policy of the euro area, ERM II and euro adoption Unit of DG ECFIN.

Silvia Merler is an affiliate fellow at Bruegel. Her main research interests include international macro and financial economics, central banking and EU institutions and policy making. Before joining Bruegel, she worked as an economic analyst in DG Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (ECFIN).

No bias there then.

 

[red & green]

Bias or expertise? More likely to know the issues than the yanks

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Bias or expertise? More likely to know the issues than the yanks

Absolutely bias. So what about your claim that trade negotiations take a minimum of 7 years? Where in your own (biased) article does it state that to be the case? Or were you just making shit up out of wishful thinking?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

See what? You made a patently false claim which your link does not substantiate.

Regardless of how quickly deals can be done, there is rather a lot of magical thinking going on here with the likes of Fox. Somehow, and he does not explain how, the UK is going to cut deals across the world that will be better than the deals the EU trading block can cut. I don't know how trade deals are made, but I see no reason why the UK is going to magically be able to make them better than the EU can. One thing I am pretty sure of is that Liam Fox is an idiot who doesn't have the first idea what he's doing.

 

[Raheem]

There's also a scenario where they declare war on us and mount an invasion via the channel tunnel. Some scenario's are less likely than others though.

Yes, but the least likely of all is that they sit down in Brussels and pass around a sheet of paper scribbled on by David Davies and everyone says "Yes, that all looks fine". There's a huge gap between what it would be in their interests to offer and what wouldn't be a disaster from our point-of-view. In some respects, our positions at present are completely illogical. We want closed borders so we can keep out foreigners, but we want open borders so as we don't get Troubles 2. Just for instance. How do we decide which we would prefer? And how can we get an agreement without deciding?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There is also the lie currently being peddled by Fox that, because the UK imports more from the EU than it exports to it, somehow that puts the UK in a strong position. The UK exports a far larger proportion of its total exports to the rest of the EU than the proportion of total exports that the exports to the UK represent for the rest of the EU. The idea that the UK has a strong hand here is patent bollocks.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well its only a 'probably' [hard Brexit] but there has no indication at all from EU leaders so far that maintaining access to the single market will be possible without accepting free movement of labour. Maybe they are just bluffing.

They didn't bluff with Switzerland. Flat-out rejected thus far a Swiss referendum result calling for an end to free movement of people. Another referendum won on a small majority - tiny bit over 50 per cent. And therein lie some of the problems with putting such things to referendums. An honest referendum would include some details of what results will mean - for instance, for Switzerland, what level of new tariffs will you accept in return for controlling immigration?

 

[red & green]

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...de-deals-post-brexit-unfavourable-trade-winds

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That article makes the rather obvious point that a big trading block is in a stronger position wrt making trade deals than a smaller trading block. It's not merely magical thinking to think the UK can do better on its own. It's delusional thinking.

 

[mojo pixy]

Hard Brexit. Soft Brexit.

 

[red & green]

That article makes the rather obvious point that a big trading block is in a stronger position wrt making trade deals than a smaller trading block. It's not merely magical thinking to think the UK can do better on its own. It's delusional thinking.

Nothing wrong with an obvious point