The Brexit process

[brogdale]

Time for a new dedicated thread?

So we now have the first indication of the basic time-frame and a name for a proposed piece of legislation.



Feeling this could end up being quite a long thread?

 

[SpookyFrank]

It's nice that we have a time frame but still no fucking clue what will actually happen.

 

[brogdale]

It's nice that we have a time frame but still no fucking clue what will actually happen.

"Brexit means Brexit"

Keep up!

 

[danny la rouge]

"Brexit means Brexit"

Keep up!

Just remind us what supercalifragilisticexpialidocious means?

 

[toblerone3]

probably hard Brexit then with NO second referendum on the deal and NO general election on the deal before 2020.

 

[bi0boy]

probably hard Brexit then with NO second referendum on the deal and NO general election on the deal before 2020.

How could there be a second referendum? Say they got a specific deal and the referendum result was against it - what would happen then, another deal and another referendum? And another? Meanwhile the two year period has expired...

 

[toblerone3]

How could there be a second referendum? Say they got a specific deal and the referendum result was against it - what would happen then, another deal and another referendum? And another? Meanwhile the two year period has expired...

Apply to rejoin the EU on the old terms.

 

[butchersapron]

probably hard Brexit then with NO second referendum on the deal and NO general election on the deal before 2020.

What does this term 'hard brexit' that you use mean?

 

[weltweit]

As brexit hasn't happened before, it has to be a bit "suck it and see" as to what the actual process is ..

 

[toblerone3]

What does this term 'hard brexit' that you use mean?

Well its only a 'probably' [hard Brexit] but there has no indication at all from EU leaders so far that maintaining access to the single market will be possible without accepting free movement of labour. Maybe they are just bluffing.

 

[brogdale]

As brexit hasn't happened before, it has to be a bit "suck it and see" as to what the actual process is ..

Being unprecedented does not, of necessity, mean unplanned, formless or chaotic.

 

[weltweit]

Being unprecedented does not, of necessity, mean unplanned, formless or chaotic.

One part that may be predictable is if there has to be a vote of the member states and if so under what terms.

 

[Diamond]

As brexit hasn't happened before, it has to be a bit "suck it and see" as to what the actual process is ..

Precisely - there is no real guidance or precedent.

There is no reason to believe that any of it will necessarily be very ordered at all.

 

[butchersapron]

That's how we got to the moon.

 

[butchersapron]

One part that may be predictable is if there has to be a vote of the member states and if so under what terms.

A vote on what?

 

[weltweit]

A vote on what?

On whatever deal / arrangement the UK and EU negotiate together.

 

[Raheem]

Precisely - there is no real guidance or precedent.

There is no reason to believe that any of it will necessarily be very ordered at all.

The first question is whether TM is actually in a position to trigger Article 50. There are various potential legal challenges in train and she also seems to want to do it before repealing the ECA, which the EU might not accept.

 

[butchersapron]

On whatever deal / arrangement the UK and EU negotiate together.

What's the vote?

 

[bi0boy]

Apply to rejoin the EU on the old terms.

So referendum #1 is "leave" and referendum #2 is "screw your deal" and the government should then attempt to rejoin the EU?

 

[Raheem]

How could there be a second referendum? Say they got a specific deal and the referendum result was against it - what would happen then, another deal and another referendum? And another? Meanwhile the two year period has expired...

There could be a second referendum post Article 50 if the Council of Ministers were to agree a special mechanism for it to happen. I'm not saying it's likely, but it would be possible if it looked like offering the best outcome from their point-of-view. I think the result would not be re-applying but calling off Brexit. At present, there is an official decision that Article 50 is irreversible, so this couldn't happen. But, in principle, they could change their minds, I think.

 

[weltweit]

What's the vote?

I should imagine member states will be asked to approve the arrangement made by the executive.

 

[weltweit]

.. That final agreement, trade experts say, could take several years to negotiate, and will be subject to unanimous voting and national ratification by all 27 remaining EU states, leaving open the possibility of almost endless haggling by every member with something to ask of Britain – think, for example, of Spain and Gibraltar. ..

What will happen now timescale for article 50 has been revealed?

 

[bemused]

Does this mean we only have two more years of interminable bore Iain Duncan Smith on the TV?

 

[gosub]

March is a big mistake. Of the three institutions we have to negotiate with, Tusk's term in the European Council finishes at the end of May, He may get relected, he may not. But I haven't heard a single politician or professional pundit take it into account.

 

[isvicthere?]

What does this term 'hard brexit' that you use mean?

I think it means tell Johnny Foreigner where he can stick his Single Market, and send those irksome immigrants back (apart from the majority of them who don't actually originate from the EU).

 

[danny la rouge]

What will happen now timescale for article 50 has been revealed?

That's not ironic. That's fitting, propitious, and apt. Ironic would be if Britain had demanded there be no official exit mechanism but then became the first to use it.

Fucking illiterate Guardian.

 

[gosub]

What does this term 'hard brexit' that you use mean?

Falling back on the WTO arrangements that only Mongolia, Djibouti, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Madagascar put up with, with tarriff and non tarriff barriers between us and the EU, customs checks and the like making Just in Time and involvement in pan European manufacture like for cars, panes electronic equipment etc 'difficult' but lfewer immigrants innit.

 

[DotCommunist]

It's nice that we have a time frame but still no fucking clue what will actually happen.

the arrogance of it. Reading downthread theres people saying 'no precedent to guide' and so on. So the fuck what? they should have had the legislators and twonks planning for exit from the moment Cameron promised a reff. Thumb up arses instead. Didn't see a loss as even possible.

 

[DotCommunist]

View attachment 93314

That's not ironic. That's fitting, propitious, and apt. Ironic would be if Britain had demanded there be no official exit mechanism but then became the first to use it.

Fucking illiterate Guardian.

allanis irony

 

[SpookyFrank]

Being unprecedented does not, of necessity, mean unplanned, formless or chaotic.

It should be the opposite. If something has never been done before it needs to be more carefully planned not less.