Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
If Aesop and Priti Patel had a love child...
The actual covid risk on public transport
- Thread starter teuchter
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Buses and tubes I've been on post-lockdown have all been mostly empty. Afternoon rush hour in many parts of central London just isn't a thing atm. I know mornings can be a bit more crowded. I am a little surprised by how many people aren't wearing masks - probably at least 10% - but I don't see many problems as everyone can keep a bit of distance. Also, hopefully people with symptoms are not struggling into work, coughing and spluttering over everyone and everything - that one behaviour change from pre-covid might make a huge difference.
Given the number of bus drivers/tube workers who caught covid pre-lockdown, I don't doubt that crowded tubes/buses were a major source of infection, but I do doubt that they are now.
Given the number of bus drivers/tube workers who caught covid pre-lockdown, I don't doubt that crowded tubes/buses were a major source of infection, but I do doubt that they are now.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I think what you've seen on the news is probably a bit of a skewed picture. They choose the one train that's full to photograph rather than the ten that are half empty.
Also there are various forms of public transport with limits now to ensure no overcrowding. National express coaches are half-full. I believe many trains are similarly limited. London buses are limited to 30. There are many bits of public transport that you can take and be guaranteed no overcrowding, while there are others where you can be pretty confident of no crowds for much of the day.
Last edited:
wtfftw
melting like a toastie
google served me this. I have not read it.
yougov.co.uk
Are londoners comfortable using public transport | YouGov
Londoners are more likely to feel comfortable on the Overground than the Underground
yougov.co.uk
Or we are just a nation of lazy, workshy drunks?
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
You say that like it's a bad thing.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbh the perception that public transport is dangerous is probably a major factor in keeping it relatively safe.
But at a big cost. I know anecdotally that some people are driving more now, and I've read that some parts of suburbia are busier now on the roads than they were pre-lockdown. Not good.
But at a big cost. I know anecdotally that some people are driving more now, and I've read that some parts of suburbia are busier now on the roads than they were pre-lockdown. Not good.
'Public transport' covers quite a lot of ground here. I'm fine with using local buses,: they're not usually crowded atm, the windows open so they're well ventilated, mask compliance is pretty good, infections are low, journeys are short, and ultimately, if it starts to feel unsafe you can just get off. Conversely, I wouldn't want to get on an aeroplane or an inter-city train, which you're on for a considerable length of time in an air-conditioned and therefore ill-ventilated environment which you can't leave no matter how crowded it gets or how many people are coughing and spluttering over you.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Have been told that far more on-train cleaning is being done, in particular the "touch points" - although my direct knowledge is actually on heritage lines, where these critical "touch points" are thoroughly cleaned / disinfected between services and the compartments also get cleaned in the layover period.
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
Dan Cooper must have missed that memo.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Perhaps ironically, heritage rolling stock is inherently better than modern in terms of covid safety, simply because it's not air-conditioned and the windows open. Bring back slam-door trains!
Saul Goodman
It's all good, man
I resemble that remark!
hash tag
Books, not bombs
Ive not been on public transport and into a single pub since lockdown and have no wish to any time soon. Ironically, I dont need public transport for work. From what I have seen, on average, at least a third of people on buses are not wearing masks.
All of this depends on where there is the greatest risk; airborne transmission or touching unclean surfaces. Germs are easily transported on surfaces and can hang around a long time.
All of this depends on where there is the greatest risk; airborne transmission or touching unclean surfaces. Germs are easily transported on surfaces and can hang around a long time.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I think i read that Japan also found low transmission on public transport, but then they are very consistent in their mask and hand washing protocol.
I guess from commuting suburb to central, you may not be sharing a carriage with any one infectious person for all that long, but all the same it doesn't feel great. I went into town on a Saturday evening for the first time since lockdown (3 or 4 other trips since had been daytime) and was made uncomfortable by having two groups with maskless members braying very loudly either side of us (oddly other people in each group did have masks, and the ones without them seemed determined to draw attention to themselves)
I guess from commuting suburb to central, you may not be sharing a carriage with any one infectious person for all that long, but all the same it doesn't feel great. I went into town on a Saturday evening for the first time since lockdown (3 or 4 other trips since had been daytime) and was made uncomfortable by having two groups with maskless members braying very loudly either side of us (oddly other people in each group did have masks, and the ones without them seemed determined to draw attention to themselves)
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Japan has also had relatively low levels of infection generally. My hunch is that it the combination of high infection levels and crowded transport that produces the risky situations, especially if aerosol transmission is a big factor. A bus driver in a bus with on average only one infected person at any one time in their shift may be ok. But if there are ten infected people at any one time, the aerosol levels may rise to infectious levels.
As ever, a lot more needs to be known about this stuff...
Ms Ordinary
randompointlesschemistry
Also, a significant part of their transport safety campaign was a request to only talk quietly on public transport, to reduce airborne transmission. (AFAIK it's already considered rude to talk on your phone or talk loudly while on the train)
Mask Up and Shut Up This article is interesting, seems a bit extreme - but there have been clusters in noisy environments (factories as well as pubs).
Can't see it catching on here though, not least because the non-mask wearers often seem to be the shoutiest.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I've noticed that, as detailed above.
Although on commuter trains, nobody talks anyway, it must be said.
Epona
Sonic: 1 Nov 2006 - 8 Jan 2022
People who work there are though, having been taken off furlough now
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
On the train in Japan, the only people not wearing masks tend to be fellow gaijin and old men. Even then, it's rare.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
The odds of catching Covid-19 on an airplane are slimmer than you think, scientists say
According to a new study, the risk of contracting the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300, and the odds lower to 1 in 7,700 if the airline is adopting the middle seat open policy.
edition.cnn.com
The odds of catching Covid-19 on an airplane are slimmer than you think, scientists say
According to a new study, the risk of contracting the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300, and the odds lower to 1 in 7,700 if the airline is adopting the middle seat open policy.
"Very few documented cases of in-flight transmission". I suspect with the vast majority of cases worldwide you can't document exactly when transmission occurred.
Back in March I had the pleasure of an old bloke hacking away for an hour on the row directly behind me and my g/f. Fours days later I went down with symptoms which matched covid symptoms. A day later so did my g/f and between us we ticked every symptom box. Of course you couldn't get a test then so it wouldn't be documented and even so I couldn't say for sure it was that flight.
Personally I consider flying to be an unnecessary risk and international travel in general is a big factor in why we are back in the shit again. I appreciate its peoples jobs and livelihoods and I don't know where we go from here but we are where we are.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Entirely agree that it is an unnecessary risk, and with so few flights in Europe right now those that are operating are very busy. But the study above is in the US where flying is much busier than Europe whilst having run-away Covid numbers, and yet they are not seeing the number of infections that you might think you'd see.
Besides, I only posted it to annoy teuchter by reminding him that planes are public transport...
teuchter
je suis teuchter
It doesn't actually annoy me, because I'd agree that planes are likely to share similar risks to trains or buses, and the air lobby has a lot of money behind it, which hopefully means they will be working hard to do some research into covid risks, which if the results are favourable, can benefit the more sophisticated modes of travel too.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Then what you really should have done, if this is indeed your real point, is start a thread on risk literacy.
Your OP, and false equivalency comparisons with going to a pub, does not do this.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
You seem to be under the impression that I'm trying to say public transport is not more covid-risky than a private car. I'm not and it isn't. I'm just interested in getting a realistic idea of what the risk is.
A parallel would be schools. Of course, sending kids back to school is more covid-risky than keeping them at home. But there are negative consequences of not letting kids go to school. In order to make a good decision, you need to try and get the most realistic picture possible of what the risks are, in sending them back to school. If the risk is over-estimated, then you end up keeping kids at home when actually the risk/benefit ratio means that really they'd be better at school.
Just like there are many negative consequences of people being more frightened of public transport than they really need to be.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
That's exactly what I've done.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
No you haven't. You've narrowed it to a context of public transport. Risk literacy is definitely a discussion worth having. There was no need to single out public transport.
