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The 2023 Russian Coup.

There is that. Billionaires tend to survive if they don’t oppose the status quo. Berezovsky didn’t do particularly well in the end.
Beresovsky, however, had never, as far as I know, been a personal friend of Putin. Not that this may mean much in the end.
 
Beresovsky, however, had never, as far as I know, been a personal friend of Putin. Not that this may mean much in the end.
Yeah I don’t think they were mates. Putin did people’s bidding when in St Petersburg and was selected as a puppet in the Govt for the likes of Berezovsky. The assumption was that he’d work for their interests but they miscalculated that somewhat.
 


'Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center based in Moscow, said while Prigozhin did appear to enjoy some popularity among segments of the population unhappy with Russia’s faltering war efforts, many in the country still opted for the relative calm that the Putin regime offered.

“Supporters of stability, choosing between Putin and Prigozhin, will choose Putin,” Kolesnikov said.'
 
I read something yesterday which suggested that Prigozhin’s public statements before he mobilised could be seen as an invitation for Putin to join him, align with him against the old guard at MOD, offering an opportunity to shed the blame of all that’s gone badly in the war so far whilst handing over the power to prig. Idea is that what really went wrong is Putin didn’t go for it.
 


'Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center based in Moscow, said while Prigozhin did appear to enjoy some popularity among segments of the population unhappy with Russia’s faltering war efforts, many in the country still opted for the relative calm that the Putin regime offered.

“Supporters of stability, choosing between Putin and Prigozhin, will choose Putin,” Kolesnikov said.'
Do you have a view on this issue?
 
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Just indicative of the sensationalist hype on Saturday's social media , which of course we all lapped up.

Come off it The39thStep, it was some kind of attempt at a military coup, or at the very least a march on a capital city by a heavily armed PMC announcing it was after the heads of the State's military while that State was fighting a brutal war of invasion. I think it's fair enough to find it pretty mind-blowing and potentially very important you old cynic, it's no surprise it generated heated interest and 'excitement'.
 
I thought this but didn’t realise he’s actually a billionaire. Is that true? If so he can live pretty much protected anywhere in the world that sanctions don’t prevent. He could basically defect if his money is secure and he fears for his life.

Money can probably delay your demise but I think with the resources at his disposal, if Vlad wants you dead your days are likely numbered.
 
Some reports suggesting today that the coup was ended because Russian intelligence agents threatened the families of Wagner commanders. Seems credible to me as that's absolutely what I would've done in Putin's shoes. If it's true, I'm pushing up the timeline of my prediction for Wagner commanders to start falling off buildings or being openly executed.
 
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Shoigu has been meeting troops in Ukraine today. Not normally one for the front lines he is probably there to emphasise his still-aliveness

According to Sky the footage shows him visiting a command centre, but it's on the Russian side of the border, they also pointed out that they don't actually know when it was filmed, it's just footage shown by Russian media.
 
Some reports suggesting today that the coup was ended because Russian intelligence agents threatened the families of Wagner commanders. Seems credible to me as that's absolutely what I would've done in Putin's shoes. If it's true, I'm pushing up the timeline of my prediction for Wagner commanders to start falling off buildings or being openly executed.
Bit lame if true though innit, it's one of the first thing you'd expect the State to do (especially Russia) if you threaten it = to go after your family. You'd have thought they'd have given these things a bit of a harder think-through. This is what happens when people try an end business meetings early before all the points on the agenda have been covered just 'cos we're a bit hungry and let's carry on after lunch
 
Come off it The39thStep, it was some kind of attempt at a military coup, or at the very least a march on a capital city by a heavily armed PMC announcing it was after the heads of the State's military while that State was fighting a brutal war of invasion. I think it's fair enough to find it pretty mind-blowing and potentially very important you old cynic, it's no surprise it generated heated interest and 'excitement'.
I think one can hold a position that the event was potentially important ( I don't think it was an attempted coup) , generating heated interest etc and also say that the mind blowingness and excitement was cranked up to the roof by a number of accounts, some with very large amounts of followers, and some online newspapers who just retweeted unsubstantiated rumours and speculation. I think that would explain the obvious deflation and head scratching , not only on broader social media but also on here, when the 'armed coup' just disappeared. It's not the first time over excitement has occurred, when the small groups of Russian Nazis fighting for Ukraine crossed the border various accounts described it as civil war for example.However in some parts, the hyperbole reached the heights of an 8 year old with a sugar rush. I lost track of the number of accounts that in the cool light of Sunday posted 'here are my thoughts on what really happened 1/24'.

I'm sure that there will still be some fall out from the event however as the dust settles its painfully clear that whilst some things did happen a lot of big things alleged to have happened simply didn't happen. Many of these are things that the poster or their audience would have liked to have happened especially if they are painting the scene of an armed coup. Sprinkle with some flawed historical analogy and it looks delicious.

What I am not doing is saying listen you suckers I saw through all of this. We are all in the same boat in that we rely on various sources for information or news , whilst we would all like the Holy Grail of that source of secret kosher news that is legit has anyone really has found it? So we are often left with trying to make sense of an event , whilst new information or disinformation comes at a furious rate often top trumping the last. It's easy to get carried away with the endless possibilities, that's probably what makes it such a spectacle but not so easy to say let's not get carried away just yet, even when you have over 500k followers.

Although I felt that your comments to ska invita were somewhat harsh where I did agree with you was your point that it is possible to read the media, recognising its bias, but still make some sense out of it.
 
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I thought this but didn’t realise he’s actually a billionaire. Is that true? If so he can live pretty much protected anywhere in the world that sanctions don’t prevent. He could basically defect if his money is secure and he fears for his life.
A lot of investments in diamond and mineral mines where Wagner have had contracts in Africa and of course the catering and other contracts.
 
I'm simultaneously disappointed and relieved the coup didn't happen. Very strange feeling. And yeah, I'd agree threats to families were made, hence the turn around. Just wondering how long will Putin wait until window falling and poisonings start to happen.
 
Yeah all fair points The39thStep, cheers. I'm not on Twitter or Telegram at all and pretty much only see those links here or Reddit feeds that I glance at so I pay not much attention to them. There is a huge and growing number of 'OSINT experts' on social media that seem to pretty much just be a teenager or middle aged man on the internet who's just republishing other people's work/speculation. I guess it's like Covid (or anything...) if you can present something that people want to read (and which maybe fulfils their wildest dreams) and re-tweet then you can quickly build up some online kudos and potentially money.

Have you listened to Perun at all? He's just done one on the counter-offensive I'm listening to now, but he mentioned doing on the coup/Wagner which will be well worth a listen I think.

 
Bit lame if true though innit, it's one of the first thing you'd expect the State to do (especially Russia) if you threaten it = to go after your family. You'd have thought they'd have given these things a bit of a harder think-through.

There's not much you can do about that though is there. Insurrection, by it's nature, means that at least some of the rebels will have family at risk and trying to move them to safety prior to the coup would have triggered all kinds of red flags. If you're up against an opponent who'd use such tactics (and most would) the trick has got to be to strike so quickly that the government doesn't have a chance to make good on any such threats, and make sure you win. Unfortunately for Wagner, that doesn't seem to have been the case here and they've been left with their bollocks hanging out.
 
Criminal investigation into Prigozhin continues – Russian media reports
RIA Novosti, the Russian state-owned news agency, is reporting that the criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin over the mutiny has not been dropped. It was reported at the weekend that investigation into him would be closed as part of the deal that brought the march on Moscow to an end. RIA posted to Telegram to say: "The criminal case against Prigozhin has not been terminated, a source in the prosecutor general’s office told RIA Novosti." LINK

Arrest to follow?
 
His point of view is illustrated by the quote he chose. He thinks there’s an innate national character in Russians which suits despotism and continuity.
I hope you're aware that by caricaturing what I write about Russia you're treading on the toes of the poster called Tim.
 
i mean there's no hard evidence he left Moscow but also if he did then of course he'd have kept it a fucking secret and not admitted it, and will never admit. truth of that might not come out ever. but what's the point even? doesn't even really matter whether he did or not.
I think that's true, though if this had led to a fire fight and then Putin's troops having to 'defend Moscow', it would certainly have looked bad if he'd 'fled' (regardless of whether that really happened).
 
Yeah all fair points The39thStep, cheers. I'm not on Twitter or Telegram at all and pretty much only see those links here or Reddit feeds that I glance at so I pay not much attention to them. There is a huge and growing number of 'OSINT experts' on social media that seem to pretty much just be a teenager or middle aged man on the internet who's just republishing other people's work/speculation. I guess it's like Covid (or anything...) if you can present something that people want to read (and which maybe fulfils their wildest dreams) and re-tweet then you can quickly build up some online kudos and potentially money.

Have you listened to Perun at all? He's just done one on the counter-offensive I'm listening to now, but he mentioned doing on the coup/Wagner which will be well worth a listen I think.


Thanks will listen. True. Early in the war one of the most followed OSINT people turned out to be some American emo type kid at High School. Having OSINT in your profile gives you gravitas
 
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