Repression and counter revolution, when it comes, will not come at the whim of the civilian government. It will come, as it has for the past year, from the military regime and the deep state which sits behind the throne. This is the limits of the revolution, that it never challenged the economic and political power of the Egyptian military.
While this is the reality, civilian governance will always be second player to the military and the military hold real power. Therefore, in this context, we have to ask ourselves what civilian government really means in Egypt anyway.There are no real separation of powers in Egypt, and there is no reason to believe these elections have created a civilian institutions with any real power in relation to the deep state
We have seen several times in the past year, attempts at repression of the streets. Sometimes quite brutally. Thousands have been imprisoned, Thousands remain imprisoned. Hundreds have been killed, women sexually assaulted, revolutionaries beaten and tortured. The limits to this repression has not been civilian government. There hasn't been any of course. The limits, as is always the case in revolutionary situations has been the balance of forces and the capacity for the opposition to resist the military's attempts to impose its will.
My point is that civilian governance isn't really the issue here is it? If the real power is the military and if the military decide to break the opposition and the democratic movement once and for all then it will do so based on an assessment of its capacity to do so in the face of resistance. Shafiq would be a willing attack dog for the counter revolution, the MB will quietly acquiesce but the result will be the same and it will be the military regime that cracks the heads and shoots the bullets.
Which is why I have had to rethink my position here. If the decision to crush the opposition is a military one, then the form of civilian governance is really irrelevent to that decision and, seeing that the MB really do stink, what reason then is there for the opposition to support it? I mean, there never were positive reasons to vote for the MB, only the negative one of keeping Shafiq out. But if the question of civilian rule is of secondary importance to the fact that the military are in power, why play along?
Isn't it better for the secular left to accept this reality. Stand aside from it and organise to resist it rather than supporting one side and risking losing their own credibility?
