A new life awaits you in the off world colonies.god willing I'll be old and rich enough to watch the mars launch wherever it may go from. I know they haven't even built the rocket yet or put jobcentre notices up for crew but maybe 20 yrs...
Shame it's nothing but publicity seeking bullshit though...
Incidentally, Elon Musk has bought a used tunnel boring machine cos he was stuck in traffic and thought tunneling would be a good thing to get into. Informed specualtion is that it'll be a re-emergence of the Subterrene from the 70s, which would have used nucelar power to melt/fracture rock.
Atomic Skies: The Atomic Subterrene
Mind you. I'll have a ticket if there's one going spare.Shame it's nothing but publicity seeking bullshit though...
Exactly how many manned space flights have SpaceX achieved to date? Oh yeah, that'd be a big fat ZERO!
I applaud their ambition, but I do wish they'd tone down the unrealistic press releases. Yes, I'm sure they'll get there in the end, but making grandiose claims about a manned moon orbit mission by next year is more about raising their profile & boosting Musk's ego.
And? 10 years ago they had not achieved orbit, no commercially funded vehicle had. Now they are regular suppliers of the ISS. The vehicle they use is pressurised and is successfully returned to Earth. Its almost a matter of strapping chairs in to turn it into a human vehicle. The two big obstacles are the new launch vehicle and the return velocity. Id happily put even money on them doing it by 2020.Exactly how many manned space flights have SpaceX achieved to date? Oh yeah, that'd be a big fat ZERO!
I don't doubt they'll do it, I'm just highly sceptical of a manned trip round the moon by the end of next year. They've not yet completed a single manned flight, even to LEO. And if they rush things, and there's a fatal accident as a result, it'll put their efforts back considerably - the loss of confidence in their capabilities could be very grave. We're not in a race to the moon like in the 60's, so any impression that they ran before than could walk would be seriously bad.And? 10 years ago they had not achieved orbit, no commercially funded vehicle had. Now they are regular suppliers of the ISS. The vehicle they use is pressurised and is successfully returned to Earth. Its almost a matter of strapping chairs in to turn it into a human vehicle. The two big obstacles are the new launch vehicle and the return velocity. Id happily put even money on them doing it by 2020.
The second part of NASA's statement on SpaceX's lunar-tourism news offers some insight into how the space agency really feels about the latest announcement. The agency says, "We will work closely with SpaceX to ensure it safely meets the contractual obligations to return the launch of astronauts to US soil and continue to successfully deliver supplies to the International Space Station."
Roughly translated, this means: Dear SpaceX, we have stood by you. We have given you $3 billion for crew services, the majority of your revenues in recent years, and we are desperately tired of relying on Russia to get our astronauts to the space station. Could you please focus on our contract? Like, now?
A more blunt assessment was offered by Mary Lynne Dittmar, who is familiar with the thinking of NASA's human spaceflight program managers. “I find it extraordinary that these sorts of announcements are being made when SpaceX has yet to get crew from the ground to low-Earth orbit," she told The New York Times.
Could SpaceX Really Launch People Around the Moon Next Year?"Even with today's technology, it's still an extraordinarily difficult, extraordinarily dangerous task to undertake, period — I don't care who you are," said Hale, who retired from NASA in 2010 and now serves as director of human spaceflight at the Colorado-based engineering company Special Aerospace Services.
SpaceX could pull off a crewed lunar loop eventually, Hale said, but he's skeptical that the mission will happen next year.
"I think their schedule is so aggressive as to not be believable," he told Space.com.
"I wish them the best of luck, and I certainly hope they succeed," Hale added. "But as a taxpayer, I'm glad there's no tax money involved in this."
SpaceX will use its Dragon V2 crew capsule and Falcon Heavy rocket on the lunar mission. But the Falcon Heavy has not launched yet — its maiden flight is currently scheduled to take place sometime this summer — and Dragon V2 is still in development as well. Indeed, SpaceX has not launched a crewed mission of any kind to date, Hale pointed out.
Great newsWell that was awesome
Depends entirely on the cost of refurb (and of course there's the devlopment cost of all this reusability tech to pay off). Musk reckons 30% discount for near-term re-flown stages.Great news
Do we have any figures, however approximate, on how much they could save by reusing the rocket? I realise it'd depend on how many uses they can get out of a typical unit..
They've said that they are giving discounts of 10% at the moment and SES got more for this flight, I would expect that to increase as reliability and re-use increases. The Block-5 version will start to be used later this year and will have a host of improvements, IIRC that they are aiming for 10 flights per booster. I think one of the cores on the Falcon Heavy demo flight is also going to be a previously flown core.
They are also improving ground operations, trialling a device that's been nicknamed Roomba, a low height tracked vehicle that can run under a landed booster and swing four arms up to grab the booster.
SpaceX Droneship 'Roomba' Envisioning
I think the driver for the super-fast turnaround times is Elon Musk's project for a low-cost satellite based broadband. He would require >4000 LEO satellites for the full network. To deliver that in a realistic timescale, as well as trying to relieve the backlog of launches that they are suffering from, he will need a much higher launch cadence. From the articles I've seen, his potential income from that project has the ability to be far greater than that from SpaceX, I believe he's looking at that to fund his Mars Colonization project.They are operating in an environment of high cost low frequency launches. This gives the the cash per flight of a disposable rocket. The interesting thing is that follower companies will not have this if SpaceX are able to achieve 10 launches per rocket. They will see falling costs from material and fabrication plus increasing customers as costs fall. If you are not already on this tread mill it could be a very hard act to learn the skills of reusable cheap rockets in an economy where one dominant player has the volume and the skills already. If they pull this off and they are maybe 2/3rds there, this will be one of the disruptive technologies of the next 30 years.
They also have a good chance of growing their market by creating demand from falling costs.