SNP leadership election (2023)

[danny la rouge]

Could they could have an MP as leader/FM, it's more that it doesn't look great? (Not sure how this works and whether the FM has to be in Holyrood.)

The FM needs to be an MSP. There’s nothing to say the leader of the SNP has to be an MSP or even FM (other than the SNP’s own rules, which I don’t know). But it would be bizarre for them to choose a party leader who sat in Westminster then have the FM as the leader of the SNP group in Holyrood. That wouldn’t work with their raisin date. (I’m trying out a new dried fruit joke. Do you like it?)

 

[Sue]

The FM needs to be an MSP. There’s nothing to say the leader of the SNP has to be an MSP or even FM (other than the SNP’s own rules, which I don’t know). But it would be bizarre for them to choose a party leader who sat in Westminster then have the FM as the leader of the SNP group in Holyrood. That wouldn’t work with their raisin date. (I’m trying out a new dried fruit joke. Do you like it?)

Ah thanks. Wasn't quite sure what was rules and what was politics.

(And not just a dried fruit joke, but a French dried fruit joke. Mange tout Danny, mange tout. )

 

[Fedayn]

There was an interesting few minutes on the nature of the SNP I accidentally saw on tv the other night. Basiocally correctly I might add, that such disagreements are not to be unexpected in a party held together by 1 aim, ie independence. That there are those wgo are left wing economically teaming up with those who are rightist free market types. Social liberals with social conservatives with totally differeing visions of an Indepent Scotland, but the independent aim lashes them together. . And whilst that party is in the ascendancy they can all rub along together because they are winning. However, when wee bumps in the road pop up, those who would not normally share a party, let alone a platform, will begin to grate on each other. Now when that dichotomy is christian fundamentalism in conflict with social liberalism that becomes an added problem especially when that religious element wis Scottish Calvinism with all its attendant prejudices it can be rather messy. What a surprise that a cross class nationalist alliance has splits.....
As an even bigger surprise, Kenny Farguharson wrote an article in the Times that is not completely shite. Is Scotland ready for a Wee Free leader?

 

[Fedayn]

1 mildly depressing anecdote is that my MP, Chris Stephens, a decent bloke and PCS spokesman in parliament, and on the Left, is supporting my MSP, Humza Yousef, (shite Health secretary, shite former Justice secretary, enthusiastic backer of the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act supporter and shite former Transport Secretary who drove his car with no insurance) in the election, Mildly depressing he is backing that twat, he wins it is definitely SNP, Still Nicola's Party

 

[Johnny Vodka]

So is there a right answer or are the SNP fucked?

 

[danny la rouge]

So is there a right answer or are the SNP fucked?

Fucked in what way? I mean they’ll be the party of government. They’ll win the next Holyrood election, even if their margin goes down. They are still the neoliberal party of business, with centralist tendencies. Are they going to remain socially liberal? Yes, I’d think so. Remember David Cameron brought in equal marriage in England.

Are they a party of radical change or even mild social democratic change? No, I don’t think they are or will be.

 

[Fedayn]

So is there a right answer or are the SNP fucked?

A right answer in this election? Are you meaning who do folk hope win this election? Well speaking just for me, I wouldn't vote for any of them, but thatn is just me.

As to fucked? In terms of being the government party? I would say highly unlikely, they are well ahead in the polls, Labour are a shower the Tories no better.... The SNP will be the government party for a good while given the lack of any popular alternative.
SNP in terms of radical change? No

 

[danny la rouge]

Labour are a shower

I’d agree mate. But I’d be interested in any insights you have in how you came to that.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

I guess what I meant is if the new SNP leader is seen as a fudge at best and unable to unite voters, will there be a drift to other parties... Labour? The Greens? Seems quite likely to me, given the general response to the three candidates.

 

[danny la rouge]

I guess what I meant is if the new SNP leader as seen as a fudge at best and unable to unite voters, will there be a drift to other parties... Labour? The Greens? Seems quite likely to me, given the general response to the three candidates.

Och, the SNP vote will probably drop a little, how can it not? But there’s no credible alternative. There’s not going to be a significant shift in Labour’s fortunes. The Greens are not going to become a major party.

 

[Fedayn]

I’d agree mate. But I’d be interested in any insights you have in how you came to that.

I think there is a number of competing reasons. In many ways the move of the voters over to the SNP has been, to a lesser extent, been echoed in Labour. A number of those on the Left who were in Labour have, is not left the party, dropped out of activity. There are of course whose on the Labour Left who are also 'tribally Labour, ie not so much socialist but solidly Left Labour and immovably so, however they are not in any position to effects any kind of change There is also the increasing move out of Labour by those on the Left of the unions, not worth the effort kinds thing. Also, Scotland, has been in the grip of Blairite's or old school backward Right wingers for years, ie giving John McTernan an adviser to Jim Murphy and the GE in 2015, which went so well for Labour....

 

[steeplejack]

John McTernan

a blast from the past. Has anyone ever been so consistently wrong about everything, ever?

 

[belboid]

Och, the SNP vote will probably drop a little, how can it not? But there’s no credible alternative. There’s not going to be a significant shift in Labour’s fortunes. The Greens are not going to become a major party.

isn't there? There vote would increase by a half according to the last few months polls (up from 20 to 30%), if the new leader moves the party to the right (as seems inevitable from the current line up) then it would surely benefit Labour at least a bit.

 

[steeplejack]

Beyond that, I'll be interested to see how Labour perform at the next Westminster election in Scotland. If they flatline next time north of the border then they really are toast. But I suspect Shur Kieth will be electoral asbestos for their hopes, whoever the new SNP leader is.

 

[Fedayn]

a blast from the past. Has anyone ever been so consistently wrong about everything, ever?

I remember his marvellous comment that the big winners from the NO vote in September 2014 would be Labour.... Then he was in charge of Scottish Labours GE campaign..... The rest, as they say, is history. So was poor old John....

 

[belboid]

I remember his marvellous comment that the big winners from the NO vote in September 2014 would be Labour.... Then he was in charge of Scottish Labours GE campaign..... The rest, as they say, is history. So was poor old John....

Tho he was still regularly wheeled out to say why Corbyn was the worst vote winner for Labour ever...

 

[two sheds]

I like Forbes' church's description of critics as being 'bigoted' because she was only standing up for her religious beliefs

Kate Forbes’ church jumps to her defence and accuses critics of ‘bigotry’

Scottish finance secretary lost high profile supporters after saying she would not have voted for gay marriage

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Fedayn]

Tho he was still regularly wheeled out to say why Corbyn was the worst vote winner for Labour ever...

Rather active on twitter too, works for some consultancy these days, Cunt Brothers probably

 

[strung out]

The FM needs to be an MSP. There’s nothing to say the leader of the SNP has to be an MSP or even FM (other than the SNP’s own rules, which I don’t know). But it would be bizarre for them to choose a party leader who sat in Westminster then have the FM as the leader of the SNP group in Holyrood. That wouldn’t work with their raisin date. (I’m trying out a new dried fruit joke. Do you like it?)

Salmond was leader of the SNP while an MP at Westminster but not an MSP, though he obviously did end up getting elected to Holyrood before eventually becoming First Minister.

 

[danny la rouge]

isn't there? There vote would increase by a half according to the last few months polls (up from 20 to 30%), if the new leader moves the party to the right (as seems inevitable from the current line up) then it would surely benefit Labour at least a bit.

They may be undeserving beneficiaries of a future drop in SNP support, but so far gains they’ve made have been at the expense of the Tories, which is a UK-wide trend in falling Tory support.

Yesterday McTernan said “the SNP will go from a very experienced, polished communicator and leader to a novice and Labour has got in Anas [Sarwar] someone who will be more than the measure of anyone they are thinking of bringing on.”

He’s, as ever, wrong. If I went out on the street now and asked people who led Labour in Scotland, nobody would know.

 

[danny la rouge]

Salmond was leader of the SNP while an MP at Westminster but not an MSP, though he obviously did end up getting elected to Holyrood before eventually becoming First Minister.

Indeed. But times have moved in and I don’t see that happening again unless a very drastic change in approach by the SNP occurred.

 

[steeplejack]

Lots of chatter that the Sturgeon-Murrell faction are trying to control the succession and Humza Yousaf os their candidate.

"Ash Reagan" is just too much of a nonentity and highly unlikely that she'll be able to cobble together the kind of insurgent-outsider campaign required to dent Yousaf, especially as it seems to be going long on oil and roads.

Kate Forbes is finished as discussed above.

So, really, there needs to be a few more interesting candidates declaring, at present it is just a weak-bubbled sodastream of beige which will struggle to hold the attention of even us anoraks.

If Mhairi Black or Stephen Flynn give up WM for a tilt at the leadership it will pull the campaign (a little) leftward and send the Sturgeon faction into a bit of a frenzy. I love Mhairi Black but she would be perhaps a little divisive; too urban and just far too left wing for much of the SNP fanbase in the rural North East. Stephen Flynn made a good start as Westminster leader and probably it came too early for him, although his elevation to the throne over Alison Thewliss was a sign that Sturgeon's grip on the party was slipping.

There's the small matter that neither are MSPs nor is there any mechanism for them becoming so before 2025.

 

[redsquirrel]

There's the small matter that neither are MSPs nor is there any mechanism for them becoming so before 2025.

Couldn't they be parachuted into Sturgeon's seat?

(Not that I think that is likely)

 

[steeplejack]

Why would she agree to that when they are not her preferred candidate (and given that one is from Aberdeen and ohe ither Paisley, not sure the folk of Govan would be overly thrilled)

mark down as 'vanishingly small chance'

 

[redsquirrel]

Why would she agree to that when they are not her preferred candidate (and given that one is from Aberdeen and ohe ither Paisley, not sure the folk of Govan would be overly thrilled)

mark down as 'vanishingly small chance'

yeah not disagreeing with that just thinking about hypothetical ways it could happen

 

[danny la rouge]

Couldn't they be parachuted into Sturgeon's seat?

(Not that I think that is likely)

I don’t think Sturgeon is planning on standing down as an MSP. Her remarks when she resigned seemed to include the things she’d be doing from the back benches.

 

[shifting gears]

The FM needs to be an MSP. There’s nothing to say the leader of the SNP has to be an MSP or even FM (other than the SNP’s own rules, which I don’t know). But it would be bizarre for them to choose a party leader who sat in Westminster then have the FM as the leader of the SNP group in Holyrood. That wouldn’t work with their raisin date. (I’m trying out a new dried fruit joke. Do you like it?)

It’s a credible effort, I’m not sure a thread on currant affairs is the place for it though

 

[geminisnake]

This may be the only time I will agree politically with Sas but I don't think Humza is fit to be FM, for a whole number of reasons, dating back a good few yrs too

 

[danny la rouge]

This may be the only time I will agree politically with Sas but I don't think Humza is fit to be FM, for a whole number of reasons, dating back a good few yrs too

No, I’m with you there.

 

[Ĝasper]

I guess what I meant is if the new SNP leader is seen as a fudge at best and unable to unite voters, will there be a drift to other parties... Labour? The Greens? Seems quite likely to me, given the general response to the three candidates.

Think you missed out the weird SNP splinter groups who may grow if neither Regan or Forbes perform well.