Should the Covid vaccine be mandatory?

[elbows]

Is there a source for this claim about the majority of the non vaccinated having had covid?

It's not something I've actually read up to now, though I admit I may have missed it.

I note your question has gone unanswered.

In my book it was just an assumption they were making, I've seen no indication that the majority of the unvaccinted have already had covid. Rather a lot will, and many more will as a result of the Omicron wave, but Omicron will clearly be affecting many vaccinated people too.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Looking

I note your question has gone unanswered.

In my book it was just an assumption they were making, I've seen no indication that the majority of the unvaccinted have already had covid. Rather a lot will, and many more will as a result of the Omicron wave, but Omicron will clearly be affecting many vaccinated people too.

Looking at the Scottish figures, the upsurge of Omnicron doesn't seem to be mirrored by either an increase in hospitalisation, or an increase in patients in ICU commensurate with the rising number of cases.

I am beginning to wonder whether the effect of Omnicron has been misjudged? I'm also aware that it is very early in this mutation, and time will tell.

We are still treating this as we have from the start, with great caution.

 

[elbows]

You arent allowing enough time, hospitals are a laggy indicator.

Londons showing a clear rise in daily hospital admissions/diagnoses, but even there is somewhat early days. Scotland is behind London in terms of timing. Sturgeon resorted to mentioning Londons rise because the current Sottish data doesnt allow her to make the point she wanted to make.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is there a source for this claim about the majority of the non vaccinated having had covid?

It's not something I've actually read up to now, though I admit I may have missed it.

The seroprevalence data - latest figures from November show around 95% over-16s with antibodies in a population only 90% vaccinated. Given that antibodies are likely not to still be showing up in people who had covid last year, that gives a lower bound of 50% unvaccinated people infected but the real figure is almost certainly a fair bit higher.

 

[andysays]

I note your question has gone unanswered.

In my book it was just an assumption they were making, I've seen no indication that the majority of the unvaccinted have already had covid. Rather a lot will, and many more will as a result of the Omicron wave, but Omicron will clearly be affecting many vaccinated people too.

Yeah, I guessed from the outset it was just a "reckon" with absolutely nothing to back it up, but wanted to give lbj the opportunity to post a source in the unlikely event they actually had one.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yeah, I guessed from the outset it was just a "reckon" with absolutely nothing to back it up, but wanted to give lbj the opportunity to post a source in the unlikely event they actually had one.

You mean my post just above this one?

But guess what? I didn't see your post. I'm not at your beck and call. I normally ignore your posts as you're an argumentative idiot who consistently misrepresents other posters.

HTH

 

[Sasaferrato]

You arent allowing enough time, hospitals are a laggy indicator.

Londons showing a clear rise in daily hospital admissions/diagnoses, but even there is somewhat early days. Scotland is behind London in terms of timing. Sturgeon resorted to mentioning Londons rise because the current Sottish data doesnt allow her to make the point she wanted to make.

It will be a cold day in hell, the day I believe anything Sturgeon says.

Our area, West Lothian, has the dubious honour of being top of the pops again.

 

[elbows]

The seroprevalence data - latest figures from November show around 95% over-16s with antibodies in a population only 90% vaccinated. Given that antibodies are likely not to still be showing up in people who had covid last year, that gives a lower bound of 50% unvaccinated people infected but the real figure is almost certainly a fair bit higher.

Except their report says:

In the week beginning 15 November 2021, our estimates suggest the percentage of adults in England who reported they had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine remained high, at 96.5% (95% credible interval: 95.1% to 97.4%). The estimated percentage of adults in England who had received two or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine also remained high, with 91.8% (95% credible interval: 88.3% to 94.3%) of adults receiving two or more doses in the week beginning 15 November 2021. These vaccination estimates will differ from official figures as explained in Section 1.

Modelled vaccination estimates for Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland require additional quality assurance and are not included in our bulletin this time. We will reintroduce our vaccine estimates as soon as possible for these countries.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody data, UK - Office for National Statistics

Antibody data, by UK country and age, from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.

www.ons.gov.uk

Potntial weaknesses include their sampling not managing to sample the full range of communities in the country, although they try to model around that I doubt they fully succeed. So many unknowns remain, especially if the unvaccinated group are less likely to participate in such data gathering exercises.

 

[elbows]

Antibody testing of blood donors also has limitations in terms of not managing to capture some sections of society very well, but anyway for refernce the latest report reports the same sort of picture as has been seen for a long time:

Based on antibody testing of blood donors, 98.4% of the adult population now have antibodies to COVID-19 from either infection or vaccination compared to 22.7% that have antibodies from infection alone.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041593/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-50.pdf

 

[LDC]

Looking at the Scottish figures, the upsurge of Omnicron doesn't seem to be mirrored by either an increase in hospitalisation, or an increase in patients in ICU commensurate with the rising number of cases.

I am beginning to wonder whether the effect of Omnicron has been misjudged? I'm also aware that it is very early in this mutation, and time will tell.

We are still treating this as we have from the start, with great caution.

As had been said, that wouldn't at all be expected yet, it takes time between each of infection>hospital>ICU>death, give it time before you make any judgements on things like that.

 

[andysays]

You mean my post just above this one?

But guess what? I didn't see your post. I'm not at your beck and call. I normally ignore your posts as you're an argumentative idiot who consistently misrepresents other posters.

HTH

It's not about being at my or anyone's beck and call, it's about providing proper sources for claims you make, when you make them.

It's in no way misrepresenting you to point out that you have completely failed to do this.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah, I guessed from the outset it was just a "reckon" with absolutely nothing to back it up, but wanted to give lbj the opportunity to post a source in the unlikely event they actually had one.

that shows a good spirit.

 

[LDC]

Still waiting for some evidence (or even just an opinion) from IC3D about why vaccinating people is 'wrong headed'?

Maybe I'm on ignore?

 

[rekil]

Would you have every person with COPD stay at home for the rest of their lives, for example?



Maybe wearing a mask would make her seriously ill, and so she was wearing the badge in an attempt to not be judged by unsympathetic busy-bodies.

My mother has copd and wears a mask when out. And my sister in law is a respiratory specialist in a manchester hospital so yes, I have 'done my own research'. Use your flouncetime wisely and sort yourself out you bullshitting loon.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

My mother has copd and wears a mask when out. And my sister in law is a respiratory specialist in a manchester hospital so yes, I have 'done my own research'. Use your flouncetime wisely and sort yourself out you bullshitting loon.

Good for her. Not everyone is as fortunate. You should know better than to discriminate against people with bad health and disability. The fact that people on the ‘left’ have gone down such a toxic, ignorant and prejudiced path is unbelievable

 

[l'Otters]

I was glad to hear Susan Michie's response to a question about whether the covid vaccine should be mandatory on yesterday's indie sage - go to 1:01:20 to hear that question and the various answers.
The ensuing discussion was interesting, too.

 

[rekil]

Apparently the loon did not use flouncetime wisely.

 

[Shechemite]

When so many who need it can’t get it I really can’t have any sympathy for the refuseniks

Clinically vulnerable struggle to get booster jabs amid rush for third vaccine dose

Exclusive: Priority list for clinically vulnerable ‘has effectively stopped working’ since jabs were made available to all, Mencap warns

www.independent.co.uk

 

[8ball]

The fact that people on the ‘left’ have gone down such a toxic, ignorant and prejudiced path is unbelievable

I don’t agree on this point.

 

[platinumsage]

I note your question has gone unanswered.

In my book it was just an assumption they were making, I've seen no indication that the majority of the unvaccinted have already had covid. Rather a lot will, and many more will as a result of the Omicron wave, but Omicron will clearly be affecting many vaccinated people too.

See “infected only” vs “immunonaive”

 

[elbows]

Thanks for the info. I wonder how spot on it is. I guess its probably imperfect but there probably isnt room for it to be hugely wide of the mark.

I found a few fresh ways to judge the healthcare burden caused by the vaccinated vs unvaccinated in recent, but still mostly pre-Omicron times.

I often post the UKHSA tables for hospitalisations and deaths in recent weeks by vaccine status, but I note that some cabinet office document was published a few days ago and it puts that same data into charts instead.

I also finally found time to locate some critical care data, after having moaned for ages that I'm not convinced press reporting quoting doctors etc was really describing the intensive care picture properly. And indeed it seems that the raw burden on that front has gradually shifted is now about evenly split between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated, although obviously critical care is not exactly the same as being on a ventilator.

As ever I post this stuff only so that perceptions about the extent to which the vaccinated vs unvaccinated are placing a burden on health systems can be properly evaluated via raw patient numbers, since people often get the wrong idea due to the nature of reporting. Reporting which is quite understandably slanted towards trying to encourage people to get vaccinated. And clearly the unvaccinated still make up a fair chunk of the burden, especially in younger age groups and especially when it comes to critical care. And as expected they make up a disproportionately large amount when considering how few unvaccinated people there are compared to vaccinated people, proving that 'vaccines work'.

Conclusion: The unvaccinated still make up a notable chunk of the raw burden, and getting lots of these people vaccinated would make a notable difference to pressure on health systems. Its just the raw numbers are probably not what people think of when they get their sense of this picture from news items rather than actual data. And it still seems to me that the key aspect in how we can 'live with covid' comes down to the number of infections that are allowed to occur, and that mandatory vaccination will not magically bypass that. My thoughts would evolve if we eventually end up with vaccines that can more effectively eliminate infection and transmission.


From ICNARC – Reports



I am including this one that covers proportions rather than raw numbers, to put the above one into context and reduce the chances of accidentally ending up misleading people about how effective vaccines have been:


From: COVID-19 Data Briefing (21 December 2021)

 

[IC3D]

 

[kebabking]

I think anyone imagining that there'll be great howls of public outrage when NHS staff get sacked for refusing the vaccines is going to be bitterly disappointed...

A snippet from Mrs K's school - One of the teachers tested positive on Friday morning, she'd spent part of Thursday with two HLTA's: HLTA #1 is triple jabbed so doesn't have to isolate and can carry on teaching in the severely depleted pool of staff. HLTA#2 has only had 1 jab, then learnt about vaccines from Darren off of Facebook, who's best friends mum was taught by her cousin - she has to isolate at home, for 10 days, sans pay.

Upon hearing this news, and putting on the crestfallen sad face, she asked Mrs K if they could pretend she'd had the jabs...

Fixed term contract. Somewhat unlikely to be renewed.

 

[8ball]

I think anyone imagining that there'll be great howls of public outrage when NHS staff get sacked for refusing the vaccines is going to be bitterly disappointed...

A snippet from Mrs K's school - One of the teachers tested positive on Friday morning, she'd spent part of Thursday with two HLTA's: HLTA #1 is triple jabbed so doesn't have to isolate and can carry on teaching in the severely depleted pool of staff. HLTA#2 has only had 1 jab, then learnt about vaccines from Darren off of Facebook, who's best friends mum was taught by her cousin - she has to isolate at home, for 10 days, sans pay.

Upon hearing this news, and putting on the crestfallen sad face, she asked Mrs K if they could pretend she'd had the jabs...

Fixed term contract. Somewhat unlikely to be renewed.

My sister was getting funny about the jabs at one point and her mind was changed quite quickly when they mentioned isolation without pay.

 

[IC3D]

Bullying workers kebabking wonderful 8ball, nice examples, you were clapping these NHS HCPs not long ago.

 

[Shechemite]

Any doctor that refuses vaccination should be sacked. Weird sort of socialism to defend the liberty of petit-bourgeoisie anti-social types over the safety of ordinary people.

 

[IC3D]

Any doctor that refuses vaccination should be sacked. Weird sort of socialism to defend the liberty of petit-bourgeoisie anti-social types over the safety of ordinary

 

[Shechemite]

Good. Normal people can see their faces and know who to avoid.

 

[Griff]

Not sure if this Shechemite character is being serious or not. 'Petit-Bourgeoisie'? Really?

 

[kebabking]

Bullying workers kebabking wonderful 8ball, nice examples, you were clapping these NHS HCPs not long ago.

Fuck 'em.

Either anti-social, thicker than dog-shit, or thicker than dog-shit and anti-social. Don't let the door hit you on the arse on the way out. Or do, I don't give a shit...