Rishi Sunak’s time is up!

[platinumsage]

There's going to be so many 'Portillo moments', I am already stocking up on popcorn.

“Portillo moments” are for people widely expected to win, even after the exit poll has been published. They aren’t ten a penny even if the party concerned is doing very badly.

 

[two sheds]

Portillo moment for me is when someone rich and powerful who themselves expect to win and don't.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Apparently 20-25 no confidence letters have arrived to Sir Brady…

Yeah what they really need is another Liz Truss.

Well, quite.

I'm no great political tactician, but how does this work out well for them? Surely the standard MO is to let him go down with the GE ship, then replace him??

Do they honestly think this might somehow save them? Who would want the job?? (Although, fuck it, there's plenty for whom it'd still work out a net benefit overall; even Truss seems to have managed to)

 

[two sheds]

Braverman would probably give it a go

 

[Dogsauce]

Kemi is the darling of the headcase right these days and thought to have done well in the previous contest, suspect they’ll rally around her? Though isn’t she another disciple of Tufton St, and we all saw how that worked out last time (£400 per month on my mortgage, cunts).

 

[brogdale]

Kemi is the darling of the headcase right these days and thought to have done well in the previous contest, suspect they’ll rally around her? Though isn’t she another disciple of Tufton St, and we all saw how that worked out last time (£400 per month on my mortgage, cunts).

Yes, looks like it'll take at least 1 further failure to win an election, beyond the next, for the vermin to have enough time in opposition for the 'one-nation' faction to have any chance of turning them back from their headbanger populism.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Well, quite.

I'm no great political tactician, but how does this work out well for them? Surely the standard MO is to let him go down with the GE ship, then replace him??

Do they honestly think this might somehow save them? Who would want the job?? (Although, fuck it, there's plenty for whom it'd still work out a net benefit overall; even Truss seems to have managed to)

If they’re smart they’ll wait till after losing the election then there’s a good few who’ll go for the job. If they’re not then I’d bet good money Truss will be back…

 

[Elpenor]

Sir Brady I think you'll find that is

Sir Brady Gravy to give him his full title, for the benefit of any non English readers

 

[platinumsage]

After 97 Hague was arguably their best candidate but of course he couldn't win the next election so they went more niche with IDS who they ditched after two years for Howard who lost the subsequent election. Only then did Cameron emerge.

My point is that the next Tory PM will certainly not be any of the current runners, and probably not even a current MP.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

After 97 Hague was arguably their best candidate but of course he couldn't win the next election so they went more niche with IDS who they ditched after two years for Howard who lost the subsequent election. Only then did Cameron emerge.

My point is that the next Tory PM will certainly not be any of the current runners, and probably not even a current MP.

I’m not convinced that history is a good guide here. I think too much has changed in the political landscape and fundamentally in the character of this country post Brexit. We can’t dismiss how much of the world has changed in terms of social media and the and the relative power of broadcast media. The new cycle moves far quicker these days then it did 25 years ago, so changes in opinion and support aren’t as stable as they once were.

It largely depends on how much of a success Labour achieve in the next election and whether they manage to secure a second, I think it’s too early tell at this stage.

 

[elbows]

All the same the expectation is that the tories will experience another 'wilderness years' period featuring a bunch of leaders that would have been less likely to be chosen if there was any prospect of the party getting into power.

Last time that happened to the tories the media treated them as a spent force and a joke for many years, before hyping the Cameron era. Not sure if it will be quite that brutal for them this time, depends in part how big the wipeout is.

 

[The39thStep]

Yes, looks like it'll take at least 1 further failure to win an election, beyond the next, for the vermin to have enough time in opposition for the 'one-nation' faction to have any chance of turning them back from their headbanger populism.

It's an intriguing thought and I suppose it depends on whether the Starmer administration is viewed as being a one term wonder or something that might scrape to two , if indeed Starmer stays as leader. I'm not sure about a return to one nation Toryism as at the moment ,its base is weak and with the possible exception of Tugendhat it has no 'big' names and little in the way of ideological champions. Perhaps a second term Labour government might be one nation Labour?

 

[brogdale]

It's an intriguing thought and I suppose it depends on whether the Starmer administration is viewed as being a one term wonder or something that might scrape to two , if indeed Starmer stays as leader. I'm not sure about a return to one nation Toryism as at the moment ,its base is weak and with the possible exception of Tugendhat it has no 'big' names and little in the way of ideological champions. Perhaps a second term Labour government might be one nation Labour?

If new, new Lab win big/twice, there’ll be the factional calls for a return to ‘centrism’ as night follows day.

 

[The39thStep]

If new, new Lab win big/twice, there’ll be the factional calls for a return to ‘centrism’ as night follows day.

That's quite a high expectation regarding Labour tbh

 

[brogdale]

That's quite a high expectation regarding Labour tbh

Yeah, maybe… but with the economy flat-lining (at best) and memories of the Johnson/Truss debacle still fresh and impacting household budgets, Starmer & co would have to be spectacularly shite not to survive; no?

 

[two sheds]

Yeah, maybe… but with the economy flat-lining (at best) and memories of the Johnson/Truss debacle still fresh and impacting household budgets, Starmer & co would have to be spectacularly shite not to survive; no?

I think I see a flaw in your argument

 

[The39thStep]

Yeah, maybe… but with the economy flat-lining (at best) and memories of the Johnson/Truss debacle still fresh and impacting household budgets, Starmer & co would have to be spectacularly shite not to survive; no?

Being shit is attainable for Labour . I think they’ll be very fortunate to win a second term tbh

 

[Pickman's model]

Being shit is attainable for Labour . I think they’ll be very fortunate to win a second term tbh

they have already attained shit. they are now going for emetic.

 

[Raheem]

If new, new Lab win big/twice, there’ll be the factional calls for a return to ‘centrism’ as night follows day.

The SCG can call for what they like, but I doubt they will be in a position to have any real influence.

 

[brogdale]

Ah well, time will tell

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Starmer…would have to be spectacularly shite not to survive; no?

He is though, how the fuck can the polls be so close? How did they only win last week cos the Tory scumbags stayed at home? Fuck ‘em all.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

He is though, how the fuck can the polls be so close? How did they only win last week cos the Tory scumbags stayed at home? Fuck ‘em all.

20 points is close?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

20 points is close?

Yes. Unless you have had your brain removed recently who on earth would look around and think ‘Oh, they’re doing such a good job, I’ll put my cross next to that funny tree thingy.’

By-elections are always wild, the actual polling suggests that a general election will be close. I hope to fuck it isn’t, but suspect it will be closer than many people hope. Not that it will make fuck all difference once Keith’s in charge anyway.

 

[elbows]

Which polls are you referring to? All the ones I've seen are miles apart, but I dont spend a huge amount of time looking for these things.

 

[Eric Jarvis]

The way the Tory Party operates in government is this. The first priority of the PM is to discredit and sideline their main rivals. Any minister showing any sign of competence and popularity will be discredited and removed from the scene. This is why they end up with an increasingly incompetent pool of potential leaders. The second priority is, of course, filling their offshore tax-free bank account, and the third priority is doing the same for the Tory party's wealthiest donors. Actually doing any governing is not a priority at all. Starmer is copying this approach.

 

[elbows]

Sunak has so far still escaped much pandemic inquiry attention apart from the usual complaints about Eat Out to Help Out and the revelations that a government scientist called him Dr Death the Chancellor.

I still expect to hear other stuff that drops him in it, but I dont know when exactly to expect that to land in this module (the evidence sessions for which run into December).

Meanwhile Monday did feature evidence another prominent pandemic person privately referencing Eat Out to Help Out:

In an embarrassing detail for Mr Sunak, Mr Shafi said Prof Whitty, the chief medical officer, had criticised the then-chancellor’s “Eat out to help out” scheme in August 2020 – calling it “Eat out to help out the virus”.

Quote via Boris flip-flopping’ made it ‘impossible’ to tackle Covid, advisers’ messages reveal