Political polling

[bi0boy]

nope

 

[butchersapron]

All the polls were wrong but more accurate than the polls. Thanks.

 

[brogdale]

The pollsters need to strive to get a greater degree of accuracy than the average. More work needed.

 

[butchersapron]

Astonishing thing. I wonder if bioboy could explain why he used the average to beat pollsters who are not producing the average with?

 

[Santino]

I would like to see all polling companies performing better than the average by next election.

 

[Santino]

kabbes

 

[butchersapron]

I would like to see all polling companies performing better than the average by next election.

I think flat polling is the way to go. No prizes for anyone.

 

[butchersapron]

The pollsters need to strive to get a greater degree of accuracy than the average. More work needed.

I would like to see all polling companies performing better than the average by next election.

That's what you meant to say i think brogdale?

 

[bi0boy]

Astonishing thing. I wonder if bioboy could explain why he used the average to beat pollsters who are not producing the average with?

eh?

 

[butchersapron]

The bastards couldn't even do that right.

 

[bi0boy]

.

 

[brogdale]

That's what you meant to say i think brogdale?

Not really concentrating properly, (I'm 'in' Antigua), but I do remember that great tory 'thinker' Eric Forth once make a parliamentary speech calling for more and more schools to become above average.

 

[weepiper]

More Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling (note: including Jim Murphy's seat and it looks like he's going to get a whupping)

 

[Steel Icarus]

Not really concentrating properly, (I'm 'in' Antigua), but I do remember that great tory 'thinker' Eric Forth once make a parliamentary speech calling for more and more schools to become above average.

Forth may have said this, but Gove definitely did a couple of years ago http://leftfootforward.org/2013/10/michael-gove-doesnt-understand-averages/

 

[brogdale]

More Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling (note: including Jim Murphy's seat and it looks like he's going to get a whupping)

He's succinct, if nothing else...

I wanted to know whether the SNP surge had subsided in places I had previously surveyed; whether it threatened other incumbents, especially Lib Dems; and whether there were any potential surprises in store. The answers are no, yes and yes.

 

[JTG]

More Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling (note: including Jim Murphy's seat and it looks like he's going to get a whupping)

So, Murphy and Kennedy are in severe trouble and the Tories could end up with two, one or no seats in Scotland

 

[danny la rouge]

More Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling (note: including Jim Murphy's seat and it looks like he's going to get a whupping)

That's terrific news. Let it be so.

 

[weepiper]

So, Murphy and Kennedy are in severe trouble and the Tories could end up with two, one or no seats in Scotland

Looks like probably only one - the only existing Tory seat (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale) is on there too and that's gone from a tie in January to a 2% lead for the SNP now. They're both margin of error at the moment though.

 

[JTG]

Looks like probably only one - the only existing Tory seat (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale) is on there too and that's gone from a tie in January to a 2% lead for the SNP now. They're both margin of error at the moment though.

That's what I meant. Both that and B, R & S are very close so could be two, one or neither

 

[weepiper]

32%!!

 

[brogdale]

32%!!

That's well off the swingometer!

 

[weepiper]

That's what I meant. Both that and B, R & S are very close so could be two, one or neither

The temptation for Labour voters to consider a tactical SNP vote in those seats must be tearing them apart.

 

[treelover]

Will there be a 'shame factor for UKIP votes?, people who are supporters not admitting it to pollsters, etc, but voting UKIP on the day, . This was the case for the Tories to some degree in the 80's.

 

[belboid]

Will there be a 'shame factor for UKIP votes?, people who are supporters not admitting it to pollsters, etc, but voting UKIP on the day, . This was the case for the Tories to some degree in the 80's.

they do do better in online polls than telephone ones, but not vastly. And it may be something other than the polling method, of course. iirr, the polls for the two by elections they won were pretty accurate

 

[JTG]

Will there be a 'shame factor for UKIP votes?, people who are supporters not admitting it to pollsters, etc, but voting UKIP on the day, . This was the case for the Tories to some degree in the 80's.

Doubt it, I think UKIP voters won't be particularly embarrassed about it

 

[weepiper]

In my experience your average UKIP voter couldnae get a red neck with a blowtorch, so no.

 

[brogdale]

Survation bigging-up their latest poll with a tory lead for only the second time since they started in 2011...but....

 

[brogdale]

More Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling (note: including Jim Murphy's seat and it looks like he's going to get a whupping)

Of course the LDs will come out with all their usual guff about their own polling, but Anthony nails their comfort polling methodology:-

Note that the East Dunbartonshire is one of the seat where the Lib Dems have recently released their own private polling (which may or may not be a co-incidence!). Their own polling showed figures of CON 13%, LAB 16%, LDEM 35%, SNP 32%. The SNP are 8 points lower than in Ashcroft’s poll, the Lib Dems 6 points higher. I wrote about the Lib Dem’s own polling at more length here. The primary differences are that the Lib Dems prompt using candidate name, which is fair enough, and ask about how favourably people see their local MP before they ask that voting intention question, a more questionable approach. We shall see which is the better guide. The Lib Dems have not released any of their private polling for the other three Lib Dem seats Lord Ashcroft released polls for today, from which one must draw one’s own conclusions.

 

[laptop]

I can't see a posting of the BBC's build-a-majority game...

*Each result is randomly generated and not a prediction of the election - read more.

 

[brogdale]

All this talk of cross-over points etc. There's one cross-over that would be worthy of celebration...when the yellow went above orange!