Political polling

[danny la rouge]

But since they haven't actually lost all those seats yet (if it is on the cards), surely they've way further still to fall..?

I was tired.

 

[butchersapron]

I was tired.

Only another 4 weeks to go.

 

[brogdale]

Only another 4 weeks to go.

True, but postal ballot papers can be sent out from today! (all candidates are known now) For some folks the election will 'be over' very soon.

 

[weepiper]

*snigger*

 

[brogdale]

Why the blue bit?

 

[The Boy]

Why the blue bit?

For the Tory. We're an inclusive bunch up here.

 

[brogdale]

For the Tory. We're an inclusive bunch up here.

Latest projection suggests there will be no tory.

 

[The Boy]

Latest projection suggests there will be no tory.

I don't buy that yet. Reckon they'll hold D&G and possibly take the Borders too, though I imagine the Lib Dem vote will hold up.

 

[smokedout]

oh god yeah, you'd have thought thatmight go down badly. Who knows, maybe earnest but shit plays well with a green voter

of course earnest but shit plays well with a green voter, that is what the green party are

 

[William of Walworth]

What sort of odds might a Scottish bookie offrt that Labour will actually end up with a few more seats than 4? (10 to 15 say?)

4 seems too extreme to be believable really. SNP would still be making massive gains whatever, but to gain all except 4? Finding that a bit hard to believe.

 

[brogdale]

What sort of odds might a Scottish bookie offrt that Labour will actually end up with a few more seats than 4? (10 to 15 say?)

4 seems too extreme to be believable really. SNP would still be making massive gains whatever, but to gain all except 4? Finding that a bit hard to believe.

You might be interested in Gary Gibbon's latest blog considering the polling evidence of the propensity for ('unionist') tactical voting in Scotland to save some Lab/Ld seats.

We asked an extra question checking whether voters had an appetite for tactical voting – would pro-union parties switch their votes to the party with the best chance of defeating the SNP?

Ask that question and the SNP lead falls to 15 per cent. Analysis suggests that this could save Labour up to nine seats they lose without tactical voting (and the Lib Dems possibly save two extra seats as well).

 

[weepiper]

 

[brogdale]

Looks like UKIP -> Con there.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Agreed, brogdale . There's been a lot of analysis as to where the UKIP vote is coming from (and going to in their recent slump), but as far as opinium polls are concerned the UKIP trend is a mirror of the conservative.

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/election-polling-centre

 

[Quartz]

You might be interested in Gary Gibbon's latest blog considering the polling evidence of the propensity for ('unionist') tactical voting in Scotland to save some Lab/Ld seats.

I can vouch for this round here (Aberdeen). Some nationalists have been appalling.

 

[Sue]

I can vouch for this round here (Aberdeen). Some nationalists have been appalling.

Hang on, what proof is there of this? Seems to be based solely on conjecture by the Tory candidate who obviously has a vested interest in slagging off nationalists/the SNP. Plenty of people hate both Labour and the Tories. Could be a disgruntled Lib Dem, no?

 

[William of Walworth]

For Scotland this non-Scot thinks, very much more generally, that the Gary Gibbon blog linked to above, is really worth a read.

In his analysis, the 'Labour will do bugger all for me' is Labour's greatest weakness (among many), but the chance of tactical voting their greatest (concealed!?) strength.

I also think that point in his blog about peoples' disinclanation for a second IndyRef any time soon, and dislike of Indy-related divisiveness, might help Labour a little bit.

But Labour need to do a shedload more in Scotland then rely on tactical votes from Tories, LDs etc.

Poll-geek here would like to see an opinon poll sampled from Scots who don't live in Scotland

 

[brogdale]

 

[treelover]

Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll

Poll takes Tories to 39% ahead of Labour on 33%, as Lib Dem support stays at 8% and Ukip drops back two points to tie with Greens on 7%

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...tives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

Guardian ICM poll, Tories 39%, Labour 33% Ukip drop to 7%

Rogue poll or are the Kipper Tories going back to base?

oh and the GP are back on 7%, votes from Labour?

 

[treelover]

Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.

Ah

 

[killer b]

Rogue poll, obviously.

 

[treelover]

yes, they only got 36% last time, but its pushed Labour's manifesto and Ed's assured performance(according to the commentariat) off the media front pages,

who commissioned this poll on this day?

Guardian, looking at you...

 

[killer b]

Off which front pages?

 

[treelover]

Well, the Guardian web front page.

 

[killer b]

Looks like both stories are there to me?

 

[treelover]

it's 23% lead the Conservative have over Labour in Scotland.

someone on CIF has posted this, if correct the ICM poll is dodgy as sin.

Oh, and it is all over the Mail and telegraph, a poll like this outlier or not gives a party a massive morale and possibly electoral boost, makes them look like winners..

 

[butchersapron]

It has 35% for con in scotland and 12% for lab - poll of 44 people. So 16 people against 5 people.

 

[killer b]

Why would anyone's morale be boosted by a blatantly flawed poll? They aren't idiots.

 

[treelover]

Eh, even Ashcroft has discussed the concept that the Tories are basically in wish fulfilment mode and will jump on any positive news,

I can't remember his exact phrase, 'conformation bias'?

 

[Santino]

Comfort polling?