Political polling

[brogdale]

Survation's first post-debate poll suggests that the event has had little impact upon the party positions, yet in the 'after-glow' of the TV coverage all the leaders have seen their personal ratings improve...except Clegg, of course.

The Survation poll for the Mirror has topline figures of:-

CON 31%(-1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 18%(nc), GRN 3%(-1).

Tabs are here. Changes are from the most recent Survation poll a week ago, and clearly show no significant change from the debate.

 

[danny la rouge]

I know someone who is transferring their vote to their 2nd/holiday home in order to vote LibDem in a seat where they might win.

Good lord.

 

[chilango]

Good lord.

The full story is even worse. I'm not sharing that though

 

[danny la rouge]

The full story is even worse. I'm not sharing that though

you can't say that and then leave it!

PMs now!

 

[DotCommunist]

thought of a good electoral scam- find non voters and buy their vote. Payment comes when you see a ballot booth selfie with the person holding up their* freshly x'd choice.


*your


only flaw is nobody who isn't voting will be motivated by less than a tenner so could prove expensive

 

[danny la rouge]

thought of a good electoral scam- find non voters and buy their vote. Payment comes when you see a ballot booth selfie with the person holding up their* freshly x'd choice.


*your


only flaw is nobody who isn't voting will be motivated by less than a tenner so could prove expensive

No selfies in polling booths.

 

[chilango]

you can't say that and then leave it!

PMs now!

Let's just say it involves a long standing family feud manifesting itself economically and politically.

I do get occasional use of said holiday home though so it's not all bad!

 

[chilango]

you can't say that and then leave it!

PMs now!

...the full story of which I only know fragments may well span generations and involve refugees from the Spanish Civil War, Irish and Belgian nuns, the French Resistance, a secret membership of The Communist Party, the Free Wales Army, Manchester United, Manchester city, liberal party activism, and unexplained financial windfalls!

.or it may not.

 

[brogdale]

...the full story of which I only know fragments may well span generations and involve refugees from the Spanish Civil War, Irish and Belgian nuns, the French Resistance, a secret membership of The Communist Party, the Free Wales Army, Manchester United, Manchester city, liberal party activism, and unexplained financial windfalls!

.or it may not.

Sounds like there's a novel there!

 

[JimW]

Sounds like there's a novel there!

We shall call it Poll Dark, for the dark polling it contains.

 

[brogdale]

Opinium's 'Observer' post-debate polling:-

Lab 33% (nc), Con 33% (-1), UKIP 14% (+1), Greens 7% (nc), Lib Dem 7% (-1), SNP 4% (+1).

Ed Miliband has enjoyed a particularly significant boost to his personal polling, however. The Labour leader has seen a six-point rise on last week, up from -21% to -15% (29% approve, 44% disapprove) with his net rating among Labour voters rising from +53% to +59%.

David Cameron’s approval rating is largely unchanged at +1% overall; both approval an disapproval have seen a one point rise.

 

[chilango]

Sounds like there's a novel there!

If only I knew the plot!

 

[Dogsauce]

People have been given such low expectations of Miliband (in part due to the usual right-wing media attacks and 'whispering campaign' rumours in The Guardian etc.) that all he had to do is not fuck up and his personal ratings would rise. This is why ham-face didn't want the debates, Miliband has nothing to lose.

The 'challengers debate' is more dangerous for Labour as the focus could be SNP and others trying to knock chunks out of Ed as that's where they need to gain votes from, and he'll be the focus of attacks. If they're more strategic they'll see that (other than for UKIP and possibly LD) the route to power is probably through some kind of pact with Labour, so they shouldn't knock him down too much.

 

[weepiper]

 

[xslavearcx]

If the reality comes close to the predictions of Scottish labour losing a lot of seats, what do people reckon those MPs will do next? Maybe stand as msp's come 2016?

 

[Mojofilter]

The 'challengers debate' is more dangerous for Labour as the focus could be SNP and others trying to knock chunks out of Ed as that's where they need to gain votes from, and he'll be the focus of attacks. If they're more strategic they'll see that (other than for UKIP and possibly LD) the route to power is probably through some kind of pact with Labour, so they shouldn't knock him down too much.

I can't help thinking that it might suit Ed quite well, in England at least, to be attacked from the left for being pro austerity.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Let's just say it involves a long standing family feud manifesting itself economically and politically.

I do get occasional use of said holiday home though so it's not all bad!

It is your duty to top-deck the toilet next time you're there.

 

[DownwardDog]

The 'challengers debate' is more dangerous for Labour as the focus could be SNP and others trying to knock chunks out of Ed as that's where they need to gain votes from, and he'll be the focus of attacks. If they're more strategic they'll see that (other than for UKIP and possibly LD) the route to power is probably through some kind of pact with Labour, so they shouldn't knock him down too much.

For most of the other participants it's one of the last occasions for five years when the British public will give the slightest fuck about them. So they won't be thinking about strategic Ed harm minimisation they will be trying to chop off his, doubtless mis-matched in size, bollocks.

 

[SpookyFrank]

only flaw is nobody who isn't voting will be motivated by less than a tenner so could prove expensive

A couple of grand might buy you a key marginal though. The tories can swing that easy.

 

[DotCommunist]

A couple of grand might buy you a key marginal though. The tories can swing that easy.

if only they could swing literally

 

[danny la rouge]

If the reality comes close to the predictions of Scottish labour losing a lot of seats, what do people reckon those MPs will do next? Maybe stand as msp's come 2016?

They'd have a fight on their hands to replace incumbent MSPs. Not least since there's every reason to think that Holyrood would be a worse bet for Labour than Westminster.

 

[treelover]

People have been given such low expectations of Miliband (in part due to the usual right-wing media attacks and 'whispering campaign' rumours in The Guardian etc.) that all he had to do is not fuck up and his personal ratings would rise. This is why ham-face didn't want the debates, Miliband has nothing to lose.

The 'challengers debate' is more dangerous for Labour as the focus could be SNP and others trying to knock chunks out of Ed as that's where they need to gain votes from, and he'll be the focus of attacks. If they're more strategic they'll see that (other than for UKIP and possibly LD) the route to power is probably through some kind of pact with Labour, so they shouldn't knock him down too much.

He should have raised his game a lot earlier, he is capable of it, may be too late now.

 

[brogdale]

....and...

Populus’s poll has topline figures of:-

CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4% (tabs). Again, there is no obvious sign of any impact from the debate – the two point Labour lead is the same as Populus’s previous poll and not out of the ordinary, though the ten point score for the Lib Dems is their highest from Populus since mid-February.

 

[belboid]

another forecast site - http://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts.html

'kippers on 2, Clegg to lose

 

[brogdale]

 

[brogdale]

Not looked at the YG tabs for a while....but significant that the cross-breaks on Voting intention by (recalled) 2010 vote still appear to demonstrate the fundamentals seen in the mid-term.

• Lab & Con hanging on to nearly 80% of their last GE vote
• LD just 31%
• LD fallout going to Lab:Con >2:1
• UKIP taking >2x Con than Lab

Showing that the vermin remain in big trouble.

 

[brogdale]

...and for the anoraks...Anthony explains the slight methodological tweaks by YG...

Nothing particularly unusual, but note that YouGov are now on their election footing, meaning they weight by likelihood to vote in a similar way to ICM and Ashcroft polls (so people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote get a weight of 1.0, people who say they are 9/10 likely to vote get a weight of 0.9 and so on). In past elections this has tended to slightly favour the Conservatives, but this time round it isn’t actually making any substantial difference at all. YouGov have also changed their sampling slightly – taking samples from people who polled in January and February (a period when Labour had a very slight lead in the polls) and weighting them using Jan/Feb vote, rather than party ID from back in 2010.

It also means they are now seven days a week, so we’ll be getting a fresh YouGov poll every night up until the election.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Tories down badly in three polls today.

 

[miktheword]

View attachment 69915

Tories down badly in three polls today.

and for first time, Miliband's personal ratings above those of Cameron's. Not that I thought personal ratings mattered much, but I wonder how this may affect the media narrative of weak Miliband...

 

[Teaboy]

and for first time, Miliband's personal ratings above those of Cameron's. Not that I thought personal ratings mattered much, but I wonder how this may affect the media narrative of weak Miliband...

Plus Fallon gave him an open goal today.