Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Are we going to see shy Libdems in this election? We've seen shy Tories, we've seen shy 'Nos' in #indyref and I suspect there were some shy Labour in 2010 - could the same be repeated for the Libdems now? Particularly among middle class Greeny/Liberal types? Would it be enough to make a difference?
ETA: not a response to that Metro poll.
ETA: not a response to that Metro poll.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I think so, though we won't see them till the results roll out. I think most people that post here regularly have tempered the line from some that the LDs will be wiped out in terms of seats; they won't, they'll probably hang on to about 3/5 of their present representation.
kabbes
First intersubjective, then internalised
I'm not so convinced about the shy LibDem concept. A large proportion of the Lib vote was expediency, voting against rather than for somebody. It's that vote that has been annhilated by the coalition. Those people aren't ashamed of their allegiance because they don't really have an allegiance to be ashamed of.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
That analysis does not work so well in seats with a LD incumbent.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Yep - much of their vote was made up of tactical left of centre voters and people going for a safe 'protest vote'. These people are not going to vote for them now.
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
You'll probably find shy Lib Dems in seats where Labour have no chance. People who hate the Lib Dems and will tell a pollster as much, but when it comes to it will vote Lib Dem because it's still preferable to a Tory.
danny la rouge
I have a cheese grater in the dishwasher.
There may well be. It's something I've considered. But you have to ask yourself this: who are they, and why are they shy?
Shy means they don't want to tell pollsters what they're really voting. So, why are Scottish voters holding back from telling pollsters that they intend to vote Labour? (eg They don't want YouGov to have them down as Unionists? - Why would that bother Unionists?)
I can't come up with a plausible reason. I'm not saying there isn't one.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
shame?
danny la rouge
I have a cheese grater in the dishwasher.
Well, that would be a rational response. But if you're a lifelong Labour voter in a Labour voting community that has had Labour representation since Keir Hardie (and who maybe voted No and wants to stop the SNP), what are you ashamed of?
In Scotland It's not so much shame as seeing that there is something exciting happening and wanting to be seen as part of it, maybe even genuinely wanting to be part of it - but then being swayed back as the election gets closer. Also non Labour unionists who decide to vote Labour as an anti-nat vote not because they support Labour.
danny la rouge
I have a cheese grater in the dishwasher.
The first point is certainly plausible, and not a shy voter as such (as you rightly imply). I think that's a reasonable effect to look out for.
The second I'm not so sure of. I think those people are already accounted for in the continuing Labour numbers.
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
Shy Lib Dems ahoy!
danny la rouge
I have a cheese grater in the dishwasher.
That *would* be a shame.
Shy Lib Dems ahoy!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
That's Clegg behind labour.
And i do hope those 7% UKIPers in that seat look closely at what opps there are...and greens...
And i do hope those 7% UKIPers in that seat look closely at what opps there are...and greens...
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
That shift in Cambridge is strange, isn't it? Julian Huppert getting a pass for voting against coalition policy?
ineffectual Labour candidate in Cambridge as well
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
greens are interesting there. A chum of mine is out on the knocker for Labour, and is furious at the Greens for standing and possibly helping Clegg stay in. But as that poll shows, once they realise what their vote means - the fuckers are moving to back the LibScum.
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BigTom
Well-Known Member
From what I understand Huppert is a very involved constituency MP, was a uni professor or something and is big on cycling in a town with a huge proportion of people cycling, so he really fits to that seat, regardless of party.
Lo Siento.
Second As Farce
Which would explain a solid base sure... but the direction of travel since last Autumn?
BigTom
Well-Known Member
oh, ok I haven't seen/paid attention to his personal numbers, I couldn't explain why they'd be rising, that is very odd.
London:
2010 Cons: 13% now UKIP, 10% now Labour.
35% of LD voters in 2010 now voting Labour.
Assuming tactical voting in key seats that looks powerful medicine.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...ard_London_Results_150330_VotingIntention.pdf
2010 Cons: 13% now UKIP, 10% now Labour.
35% of LD voters in 2010 now voting Labour.
Assuming tactical voting in key seats that looks powerful medicine.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...ard_London_Results_150330_VotingIntention.pdf
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Look at the conservative efforts in clegg's seat.
it's OK I've explained it
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
I have, out of curiosity, done a couple of those "Who should I vote for?" online quizzes. I live in a constituency which is pretty much a straight-up Lab/Con fight (2010 Con majority of just over 4,000) so I don't know whether to just spoil my paper as I have since 1997 or...something else. Don't want to vote Labour, unsure about Green cos is there any point?
I've discovered through these quizzes I should vote for variously SNP, Plaid Cymru or Sinn Fein (that's handy considering I'm in Lincolnshire), or Green or Labour. None of this means much particularly in terms of who I might vote for, there's a TUSC candidate and if anyone's getting my vote it'll be them. But I was struck by how leading the questions are, there's simply no room for certain opinions.
Take "Should the tax rate for earnings over £150,000 be raised to 50%? Yes/No". Er, no. They should be whacked up to at least 75% or something. But 50% is your option, so you either agree with 50% or 45%. And another - "Should Britain leave the EU?" - Yeah, I think so - from a wholly different perspective than UKIP are coming at the question - but vote "Yes" and your view is bracketed with that bunch.
Not so much the Overton Window moving rightwards, it's just too small to see through properly.
"Vote [insert name selected with pin] and get a liberal" - yay. And still the huge piousness from all over hoves into view around this time - "If you don't vote you have no reason to complain".
Viva democracy!
I've discovered through these quizzes I should vote for variously SNP, Plaid Cymru or Sinn Fein (that's handy considering I'm in Lincolnshire), or Green or Labour. None of this means much particularly in terms of who I might vote for, there's a TUSC candidate and if anyone's getting my vote it'll be them. But I was struck by how leading the questions are, there's simply no room for certain opinions.
Take "Should the tax rate for earnings over £150,000 be raised to 50%? Yes/No". Er, no. They should be whacked up to at least 75% or something. But 50% is your option, so you either agree with 50% or 45%. And another - "Should Britain leave the EU?" - Yeah, I think so - from a wholly different perspective than UKIP are coming at the question - but vote "Yes" and your view is bracketed with that bunch.
Not so much the Overton Window moving rightwards, it's just too small to see through properly.
"Vote [insert name selected with pin] and get a liberal" - yay. And still the huge piousness from all over hoves into view around this time - "If you don't vote you have no reason to complain".
Viva democracy!
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I dunno, there are parts of the country where there's actually a lot of active lib dem support. In North Devon, home of Jeremy Thorpe, Labour basically doesn't exist and anyone who isn't a fox-eviscerating barbour-jacketed toff votes lib dem.
e2a: I just saw the graphic above suggesting that the tories are gonna walk off with the North Devon seat
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
I know someone who is transferring their vote to their 2nd/holiday home in order to vote LibDem in a seat where they might win.
Wow, so many awful things in a single sentence. Impressive.
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