Political polling

[Spanky Longhorn]

they do do better in online polls than telephone ones, but not vastly. And it may be something other than the polling method, of course. iirr, the polls for the two by elections they won were pretty accurate

if any thing UKIP, Greens, and SNP are more likely to have people claiming to vote for them who won't on the day (for a variety of reasons).

 

[brogdale]

if any thing UKIP, Greens, and SNP are more likely to have people claiming to vote for them who won't on the day (for a variety of reasons).

That's certainly the conventional wisdom. Whether we are living in conventional (psephological) times is another matter.

 

[Dogsauce]

The temptation for Labour voters to consider a tactical SNP vote in those seats must be tearing them apart.

The expectation would be that an SNP MP would sit in Labour's 'block', lib dem wouldn't. Tactically worthwhile for Labour supporters I would have thought.

 

[miktheword]

opinium observer has Cons 36 (unchanged) and Lab 32 (-2)

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...lead-labour-opinium-observer-poll-challengers

But Yougov for Sunday Times has Lab 36 Cons 33 after level yesterday.

 

[Quartz]

Tactically worthwhile for Labour supporters I would have thought.

The Lib Dems seem perfectly happy to ally with Labour, and voting SNP has unwanted side-effects.

 

[brogdale]

 

[brogdale]

 

[kabbes]

This is fascinating:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/0...ve-failed-to-change-in-five-years/#more-11246

It'd be a disservice to pick out one or two bits from it, but the section comparing what voters actually vote on to the lead each party has on that question is particularly interesting.

 

[brogdale]

It's all about the leaners....

 

[weepiper]

New Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls too



Edinburgh South is the seat where the SNP had their lowest share of the vote in 2010.

 

[JTG]

New Ashcroft Scottish constituency polls too

View attachment 70489

Edinburgh South is the seat where the SNP had their lowest share of the vote in 2010.

View attachment 70490

Crikey. I know it doesn't always follow but it looks like a wholesale Lib Dem > SNP switch there

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

makes sense, they're both vaguely progressive centre parties that can make undeliverable promises...

 

[weepiper]

Crikey. I know it doesn't always follow but it looks like a wholesale Lib Dem > SNP switch there

SNP are definitely taking a lot of votes off the Libs all over Scotland. I think there's been some Labour>SNP movement here too though but it's been masked by the Tory vote realising the SNP might get in and choosing a tactical Labour vote.

 

[weepiper]

makes sense, they're both vaguely progressive centre parties that can make undeliverable promises...

Except the SNP have been delivering on those promises in government for 8 years

 

[Dogsauce]

I see the words 'Tory gain' on that table. That's unacceptable, fucking sort it out Scotland.

 

[The Boy]

I see the words 'Tory gain' on that table. That's unacceptable, fucking sort it out Scotland.

Within the margin of error. Fear not.

At least not until the count is in.

 

[danny la rouge]

I see the words 'Tory gain' on that table. That's unacceptable, fucking sort it out Scotland.

Well within the margin of error.
Mind you, it's the Borders: Lib Dem heartland. In that area, they're more likely to desert for the Tories than for the SNP.

 

[fiannanahalba]

if any thing UKIP, Greens, and SNP are more likely to have people claiming to vote for them who won't on the day (for a variety of reasons).

Not according to polling findings. 95% of SNP voters are very likely to vote. HMs loyal Lumpen Party are getting 68% likely to vote.

 

[brogdale]

Last night's YG...

YouGov for the Sun – has topline figures of:-

CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%.

So we have two polls giving Labour leads, two giving Conservative leads, and the polls apparently still fluctuating around an underlying picture of Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck.

 

[danny la rouge]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

16 days to go - @guardian projection: CON 271 seats LAB 270 SNP 55 LDEM 28

 

[kabbes]

325 being insufficient for a majority, of course...

 

[magneze]

325 being insufficient for a majority, of course...

It's 323 due to Sinn Fein not taking up their seats IIRC.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

It's 323 due to Sinn Fein not taking up their seats IIRC.

321, taking the Speaker and three deputies into account as well.

 

[belboid]

321, taking the Speaker and three deputies into account as well.

deputies dont count. We dont know who they are going to be, nor which party they will be drawn from (ts always been an even Lab/Tory split postwar, but with their collapse this time, it could well be different). Also, unlike the Speaker, they are elected as representatives of their party.

323 it is

 

[butchersapron]

deputies dont count. We dont know who they are going to be, nor which party they will be drawn from (ts always been an even Lab/Tory split postwar, but with their collapse this time, it could well be different). Also, unlike the Speaker, they are elected as representatives of their party.

323 it is

The speaker and deputies are elected first thing the day after parliament reassembles, before any confidence vote on a new govt - dropping it down to 321.

 

[kabbes]

Interesting. Normally these things don't make much difference but this time it could be crucial.

Mind you, the Speaker may drop it down but if the speaker comes from Labour, that'll also drop their total.

 

[belboid]

The speaker and deputies are elected first thing the day after parliament reassembles, before any confidence vote on a new govt - dropping it down to 321.

Once that parliament is elected, and is begun. Prior to that, they are there for their party. So, on election day, the key number is 323.

The tradition (I cant recall if its law or not) is, there will be another member of the Speakers party as one deputy, and two from another party - so that the loss of seats is balanced. But seeing as there will be more than two key parties after this election, they could try and nominate a LibScum for one of the 'other party' roles, meaning the required majority down to 320!

 

[brogdale]

Once that parliament is elected, and is begun. Prior to that, they are there for their party. So, on election day, the key number is 323.

The tradition (I cant recall if its law or not) is, there will be another member of the Speakers party as one deputy, and two from another party - so that the loss of seats is balanced. But seeing as there will be more than two key parties after this election, they could try and nominate a LibScum for one of the 'other party' roles, meaning the required majority down to 320!

By the time of the Queen's speech it will, dependent upon a similar SF seat haul, be 321.

 

[belboid]

By the time of the Queen's speech it will, dependent upon a similar SF seat haul, be 321.

could be months before a Queen's Speech! On Friday morning, we are looking at 323

 

[brogdale]

could be months before a Queen's Speech! On Friday morning, we are looking at 323

No, it pretty much has to come before anything substantive can occur:-

The first business of the House of Commons when it meets is to elect or re-elect a Speaker and for Members to take the oath.The first business of the House of Lords is also for its Members to take the oath. Normally the Queen’s Speech outlining the Government’s legislative programme will take place in the second week of Parliament’s sitting and is followed by four or five days of debate. This is when the business of the new Parliament properly begins

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

321 it is, in reality.