Yes but not because of boundary conditions.
For which they will receive 36% of the seats
Agreed. The Rallings & Thrasher analysis from last year predicted a slight electoral advantage (net +5 seats to the Tories) but, as you say, it's additional to and not as significant as the inbuilt votes/seat ratio favouring the Tories in 2019 when the Conservatives got one seat for every 38,264 votes, while Labour got one seat for every 50,837 votes.
Not sure but, if those numbers get repeated, the vacuous should be wary of the populist
What the fuck do I know alert. However - They don’t need to call it until Jan 25. I don’t think they’ll wait that long (January is a terrible month to expect people to go to the polls), but I don’t think they’ll jump unless the polls are much more favourable. That or they’ve left it too late and have to go anyway. My guess is late summer or Autumn of 24.
yes sorry, meant on 8 - not bad for a party i barely even know exists
Indeed, but unless all 8% are in one constituency, it won’t trouble the voting figures in the slightest.
Why 'only'; you don't think a change from 20 to 6 is pretty dramatic?
Not massively dramatic, to be honest, given that those numbers are out of a total of 73 London MPs. London had already rejected the Tories. If this plays out, they'll have gone from a pretty small minority to a very small minority.
2%, but they were, at the height of their pomp, getting 4 - 5% on national polling..so yeah.
The good old days when we all thought UKIP would fuck up the Tories and we were on the road to luxury communism with Ed Milliband or something. How the fuck do they persist?
