Political polling

[mx wcfc]

An interpretation of that data:



FPTP is ridiculous

I hate to say it, but the LibDems will get more seats than that. There's a lot of seats where the LDs will be the best prospect of getting the Tory out.

But yes, FPTP is a joke. If it this go this badly for the tories, even they might come around to the idea of PR.

 

[Elpenor]

These fantasy maps are interesting if in the realms of unlikeliness but that’s the first one I can recall showing Torbay going to Labour

 

[kabbes]

When it comes to actual voting time, there will be enough people whose whole identity is centred around being conservative to carry the Tories in at least 100 seats (probably even 150) no matter how shit their polling apparently looks. My constituency historically has over 50% of people voting Tory. They aren’t representative of the country so polling companies won’t be taking a big sample from them. But come 2024, they will still turn out and vote Tory.

The annihilation of the Tory vote isn’t evenly distributed, is what I’m saying. I envisage them losing their deposit in many places while holding onto their seat in others.

 

[brogdale]

When it comes to actual voting time, there will be enough people whose whole identity is centred around being conservative to carry the Tories in at least 100 seats (probably even 150) no matter how shit their polling apparently looks. My constituency historically has over 50% of people voting Tory. They aren’t representative of the country so polling companies won’t be taking a big sample from them. But come 2024, they will still turn out and vote Tory.

Yes, pre-election convergence is nearly always a feature.

 

[JTG]

I hate to say it, but the LibDems will get more seats than that. There's a lot of seats where the LDs will be the best prospect of getting the Tory out.

But yes, FPTP is a joke. If it this go this badly for the tories, even they might come around to the idea of PR.

However Labour won't be arsed if they're handed that kind of astonishing majority by the existing system. And round and round we go

 

[Chz]

Yes, pre-election convergence is nearly always a feature.

There's a part of me that hopes that if everyone sees there's a massive kicking about to be had, they'll want in on it. When the Canadian Conservatives suffered the humiliation that led to their eventual dissolving, turnout was over 70% for everyone to get the boot in. 1997 here was much like that too, though they didn't get kicked quite hard enough.

 

[JTG]

There's a part of me that hopes that if everyone sees there's a massive kicking about to be had, they'll want in on it. When the Canadian Conservatives suffered the humiliation that led to their eventual dissolving, turnout was over 70% for everyone to get the boot in. 1997 here was much like that too, though they didn't get kicked quite hard enough.

Turnout in 1997 was down 6.4% from 1992

 

[Knotted]

I think Labour will still be lucky to get an overall majority at the next election. That a lot of would be Tory voters are saying they won't vote does not mean they actually won't vote once the election comes round. Add the loss of Scotland and we are not looking at a repeat of 1997.

 

[Chz]

I think Labour will still be lucky to get an overall majority at the next election. That a lot of would be Tory voters are saying they won't vote does not mean they actually won't vote once the election comes round. Add the loss of Scotland and we are not looking at a repeat of 1997.

The loss of Scotland makes it very, very difficult for them. I'd agree they'll be lucky to swing an outright majority, but it can happen.

 

[JTG]

I think Labour will still be lucky to get an overall majority at the next election. That a lot of would be Tory voters are saying they won't vote does not mean they actually won't vote once the election comes round. Add the loss of Scotland and we are not looking at a repeat of 1997.

Correct. Add in the Tory thumb-on-the-scale effect of the new boundaries and compulsory ID and what I expect to be an enthusiasm deficit amongst potential Labour voters (what are we voting for? Nobody knows!) and I'm not convinced we'll see that big a majority or even have one at all

 

[Dogsauce]

We can all dream of ‘portillo moments’ happening again though. There haven’t been enough of them in my lifetime. Struggling to think who would be the most satisfying, 10p Lee? JRM? McVey? Rosindale? So many arseholes to chose from.

 

[Chz]

It would be pleasing to see Boris Johnson go, but I imagine if he has any worries about losing his seat he'll either relocate or "retire" rather than be defeated. JRM is one of the few likely to keep his, unfortunately. I also don't think there's much of a chance of Dorries losing her seat, either.

So yeah, those are the ones I'd throw a party over but it doesn't look like it will happen.

 

[Dogsauce]

JRM was considered marginal not that long ago (2015?) so I’d hope a complete collapse might have him out, but then he still gets the extra ‘LOL, Harry Potter’ vote of complete idiots propping up the numbers.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

It would be pleasing to see Boris Johnson go, but I imagine if he has any worries about losing his seat he'll either relocate or "retire" rather than be defeated. JRM is one of the few likely to keep his, unfortunately. I also don't think there's much of a chance of Dorries losing her seat, either.

So yeah, those are the ones I'd throw a party over but it doesn't look like it will happen.

On the other hand it would be quite funny to see a party reduced to the like of Rees Mogg and Dorries trying to make a comeback.

 

[alex_]

On the other hand it would be quite funny to see a party reduced to the like of Rees Mogg and Dorries trying to make a comeback.

I’m pretty sure those two aren’t going to be interested in minor opposition roles.

 

[Pickman's model]

I’m pretty sure those two aren’t going to be interested in minor opposition roles.

They'll be lucky if they get those

 

[JTG]

JRM was considered marginal not that long ago (2015?) so I’d hope a complete collapse might have him out, but then he still gets the extra ‘LOL, Harry Potter’ vote of complete idiots propping up the numbers.

The previous version of NES - Wansdyke - was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010, approximately half the life span of the seat. Boundaries were substantially redrawn to remove some of the slightly more Labourish Bristol suburbs in South Gloucestershire and added a load of raging Tories from the Bath suburbs.

Next time around it's all change again as JRM's seat loses the Tory-as-fuck Bathavon/Newbridge wards back to Bath, loses the Labourish ex-mining villages of Radstock & Midsomer Norton to Frome and regains the Bristol suburbs of Hanham, Longwell Green, Bitton & Warmley. The net effect would probably be to make Mogg's seat somewhat less comfortable than it has been at any time since his initial 5k majority over sitting Labour MP (and present Metro-Mayor) Dan Norris in 2010. The main question really is whether the challenge will be from Labour or the Lib Dems - Labour understandably insist that given they held the seat in it's old form for 13 years they can retake it, while the Lib Dems are just being infuriatingly Lib Demish and can basically fuck off with that even though they have the potential to spoil all the fun by splitting the vote.

Anyway, it's not nearly as rural as you'd think round there and JRM's main hope would be in persuading enough complacent suburban pricks to turn out for him when they've not even been his constituents before never mind everything else that's gone on lately

 

[Bingoman]

It would be pleasing to see Boris Johnson go, but I imagine if he has any worries about losing his seat he'll either relocate or "retire" rather than be defeated. JRM is one of the few likely to keep his, unfortunately. I also don't think there's much of a chance of Dorries losing her seat, either.

So yeah, those are the ones I'd throw a party over but it doesn't look like it will happen.

Isn't Dorries going to the house of Lords once the Election is called?

 

[brogdale]

Thinking about pre-election convergence again, I heard John Curtis on that ITV politics thing last night say that, what with all the boundary changes etc, the LP would need a 13 to 14% poll lead to think about getting into working majority territory.

 

[JTG]

Thinking about pre-election convergence again, I heard John Curtis on that ITV politics thing last night say that, what with all the boundary changes etc, the LP would need a 13 to 14% poll lead to think about getting into working majority territory.

Yep. It's not happening lads. Maybe shouldn't have spent five years suicide bombing your own careers to stop the bad jam man from winning

 

[not-bono-ever]

even top tory lad rod stewart has a downer on the tory filth now.

 

[ska invita]

Thinking about pre-election convergence again, I heard John Curtis on that ITV politics thing last night say that, what with all the boundary changes etc, the LP would need a 13 to 14% poll lead to think about getting into working majority territory.

i posted this upthread

 

[brogdale]

i posted this upthread

Yeah, when pushed Curtice said a LP led administration (ie. based on some sort of coalition/s) was likely but a working majority was a possibility.

 

[ska invita]

this boundary change thing suggests labour could win the popular vote time and again but never win an election

it couldn't be less democratic and it makes me wonder if labour do get a working majority if they'll change the system to protect themselves from getting locked out of power - big majorities like this wont come along that often, seems to be that in most cases they are doomed to lose.

but then again what legislation could be passed apart from PR, and PR would likely lead to a split in the labour 'coalition'.

 

[redsquirrel]

The boundary changes are not the reason why a 'neutral' (tied) vote won't result in a Labour majority, the actual StatsForLefties webpage shows that (as opposed to the silly twitter feed which tends to make some dubious claims). The changes will benefit the Tories (at least based on 2019 voting) but only to a relatively modest scale.

 

[brogdale]

The boundary changes are not the reason why a 'neutral' (tied) vote won't result in a Labour majority, the actual StatsForLefties webpage shows that (as opposed to the silly twitter feed which tends to make some dubious claims). The changes will benefit the Tories (at least based on 2019 voting) but only to a relatively modest scale.

That's well explained, but I think Curtice's (naturally) cautious approach to any forecasting was made on the basis that it is unlikely that the LP's poll leads will sustain at mid 20s - 30s over the 2 years to the GE. With convergence will come disproportional benefit to the tories. As the StatsForLefties piece concludes:

if the polls start to tighten, the mismatch between popular vote and seats is likely to become ever-more noticeable, with the Conservatives pulling ahead in seats before they pull ahead in vote share.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Is it really some sort of travesty against democracy that winning 43% of the vote wouldn't get them an outright majority?

 

[ska invita]

Is it really some sort of travesty against democracy that winning 43% of the vote wouldn't get them an outright majority?

It is if second place are on 29pc, yeah, is to me anyway.

 

[StakerOne]

I'm going to vote WEF.

 

[strung out]

Is it really some sort of travesty against democracy that winning 43% of the vote wouldn't get them an outright majority?

According to the projection above, 43% of the vote gets them 49% of the seats, which seems about right.

It's how things are right now that is the travesty, not the future projection.