Okay, I have read through the transcript of the speech and it is clear the 1.2 trillion figure the Saudi Minister gives is a world reserve estimate and not a Saudi reserve estimate. However, the Minister makes it quite clear that Saudi Arabia's proven reserves have almost tripled from 88 billion barrels in 1970 to 261 billion barrels today, despite 35 years of intervening production. He also points out that the United States Geological Survey estimates that another 1.3 trillion barrels of oil and natural gas liquids will become available in the future. The US Geological Survey also estimates that the world was endowed with 3,021 trillion barrels before production began. And that was just conventional light crude. The Russians apparently think that the USGS numbers are too pessimistic, they put the total at 11,000 trillion barrels. It seem everywhere we look we end up finding more and more oil.
In fact it is worth quoting the figures in the context the Minister put them to get a better idea of the Saudi position on "Peak Oil":
In fact it is worth quoting the figures in the context the Minister put them to get a better idea of the Saudi position on "Peak Oil":
With regard to recent claims that the world is rapidly running out of oil, I would like to point out that this is not the first time we have heard warnings of impending scarcity. In fact, dire Malthusian predictions about oil and other natural resources have been voiced now and again for at least the last 100 years. The most commonly heard argument is that mankind faces the imminent exhaustion of the world's natural resources, including petroleum, due to growing population and the profligate lifestyles of wealthy nations.
How did past predictions of doom and gloom fare? Not very well. During this period when we were supposed to be running out of oil, world oil reserves continued to grow, from about 550 billion barrels in 1970 to more than 1.2 trillion barrels today. What is all the more remarkable is that this increase occurred despite the fact that the world consumed over 800 billion barrels during this period.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, our proved reserves were estimated to be about 88 billion barrels in 1970. Today, we conservatively estimate them at 261 billion barrels, despite the intervening 35 years of production...
Some skeptics express disbelief at the nearly three-fold increase in our reserves number over the past 30 years. There is nothing magical about these numbers. Our years of experience gained from producing our fields, along with advances in technology have provided us with invaluable new knowledge about our petroleum resources. This knowledge has helped us to better appreciate their size and enhanced our ability to recover these resources. I would like to emphasize that all of our reserve estimates are extremely conservative and you can rest assured that our booked reserves are very real.
But what about the future, you may ask. We take the issue of oil production peaking seriously and are constantly monitoring and assessing the latest data and trends. I am happy to report to you that our analysis gives us reason to be optimistic about the future. Current world proven reserves are estimated at 1.2 trillion barrels. The United States Geological Survey estimates that another 1.3 trillion barrels of oil and natural gas liquids will become available in the future. This will come from undiscovered resources and more accurate assessments of reserves located in existing fields. The additional oil raises the conventional liquid reserves and resources to over 2.5 trillion barrels.
But that's not all. There are vast amounts of unconventional heavy oil and bitumen. The in-place volume of these two resources is estimated at about 3.7 trillion barrels; 570 billion barrels of these resources are expected to be recoverable. Based on the current global oil consumption rate, these conventional and unconventional oil resources would last for more than 100 years.