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Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

The confusion between gross and net is as terminal as it is widespread.
What's the net now, then?

This study says that the eroi on shale gas is close to that of coal. Is it wrong? You've never adequately explained how energy sources with an eroi of more than, say, 10:1 are somehow disastrous. Shale gas is estimated at better than 50:1.
 
What's the net now, then?
Less than before [1]. In contradiction of the poster's statement.

This study says that the eroi on shale gas is close to that of coal. Is it wrong?
No. Provided, in estimating the the EROEI, they placed the boundary of the system used to estimate it OUTSIDE the process used to manufacture the ball bearing in the truck used to mine the gypsum used in the cement for the wall of the facility for making the industrial oxygen for the smelter providing the steel for the etc. etc. etc.

Did they? These studies often assume (without stating) the existence of a thing called "the global industrial manufacturing system" which their gadgets are the product of. A rather fatal assumption in EROI estimation, as it turns out.

You've never adequately explained how energy sources with an eroi of more than, say, 10:1 are somehow disastrous.?
To you. You've never quite grasped that the adequacy of a given EROEI is a function of the number of people who are dependent on the margin.

[1] Since production has stalled, and during the plateau phase high EROEI liquids retired through depletion have been substituted by low EROEI liquids.
 
To you. You've never quite grasped that the adequacy of a given EROEI is a function of the number of people who are dependent on the margin.
Nah, this is just empty bluster. Going from eroi of 1000:1 down to one of 10:1 reduces the available energy by just under 10 per cent. Sure this will cause higher prices, but there is no reason why it should cause system collapse - those higher prices will partly be offset by the increased incentive to be more efficient and to find alternative energy sources, and there is massive room for greater efficiency in the way we use our fuel and for greater use of other sources.
 
How does that work then?
Sounds like some bollocks an economist would come out with.
:hmm:

A well with 1000:1 eroei produces 1000 barrels of oil by using 1 barrel. Net output 999 barrels.

A well with 10:1 eroei produces 1000 barrels of oil by using 100 barrels. Net output 900 barrels.

Therefore available barrels is reduced by 99. Or 9.91%
 
A well with 1000:1 eroei produces 1000 barrels of oil by using 1 barrel. Net output 999 barrels.

A well with 10:1 eroei produces 1000 barrels of oil by using 100 barrels. Net output 900 barrels.

Therefore available barrels is reduced by 99. Or 9.91%
Ah.
And the price of oil goes up by 99%...
And the economy falls on it's arse...

Sound familiar?
 
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Hahahah. Calm down mate.
You have not shown us the massive fields on the Canadian Arctic that are going to stave off depletion.

You seem to feel things like chemistry, geology and engineering are beneath so august a political theorist as yourself. Descend from thy dalliances among the other gods and inform us, oh being of light, when conventional crude oil reserves go into decline (3-6% pa as per IEA) where is the new liquid energy going to come from and how this is going to be produced sans CO2?
 
Ah.
And the price of oil goes up by 99%...
And the economy falls on it's arse...
No. The price of oil can only go up by 99 per cent in such circumstances if the economy does not fall on its arse.

Just a small decrease in supply can cause large increases in price where goods are highly prized, but only if there's a functioning economy. Plus there are political interventions that can happen with a shrinking energy supply, interventions such as energy rationing. This happened in the 1970s, when energy was rationed during the oil crisis. It's interesting that output in the UK only fell irrc by around 16 per cent during the three-day week - the rationing of energy concentrated minds to find better ways to do things.
 
A well with 1000:1 eroei produces 1000 barrels of oil by using 1 barrel. Net output 999 barrels.
This never happened, the highest EROI most people quote is 100:1 from the likes of Spindletop and Gahwar.


A well with 10:1 eroei produces 1000 barrels of oil by using 100 barrels. Net output 900 barrels.
Aye so if you double production but decrease net EROI by about 10 fold you get a fifth of the energy.

Yipee kayee motherfucker. That darned peak oil myth has been shattered.
 
This never happened, the highest EROI most people quote is 100:1 from the likes of Spindletop and Gahwar.


Aye so if you double production but decrease net EROI by about 10 fold you get a fifth of the energy.
.
They were just illustrative figures. I chose a deliberately high first figure.

As for your second bit, um? Er? If your energy source has a lower eroi, you'll have to expend greater effort getting it out, and yes, that's taking effort away from other areas. Actually, it's potentially providing a lot of employment. Non-oil farming requires more manpower, too. But we're not short of bodies. Such changes could potentially produce positive political changes, re-empowering workers.
 
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They were just illustrative figures. I chose a deliberately high first figure.

As for your second bit, um? Er? No, not necessarily.
Really? You cut the net energy per volume by a factor of ten and you think this is all just gravy? The size of the pores of rock you are trying to suck the oil out of matter, they matter because the smaller they are the harder you have to suck. The amount of gas you have in the well matters, because the more of a gas cap you have the more drive for the oil you have in the well and the less viscous the liquid is likely to be. The shallower the well the less hight you have to life the liquid. If you are burning half your liquid at the top to run the pumps to pull it out, even if your production figures are going well, half of it is not getting to market to sell and return profit or power cars.

EROI is over blown by the doomsteaders waiting for the zombie apocolypse. But it does refelect a version of the physical reality that if your are scooping out very long chain hydrocarbons that need cracked or non conventional reservoir hydrocarbons that take a huge amount of energy to suck out the ground then volume of liquids produced is only a faction of the energy story.
 
Really? You cut the net energy per volume by a factor of ten and you think this is all just gravy? The size of the pores of rock you are trying to suck the oil out of matter, they matter because the smaller they are the harder you have to suck. The amount of gas you have in the well matters, because the more of a gas cap you have the more drive for the oil you have in the well and the less viscous the liquid is likely to be. The shallower the well the less hight you have to life the liquid. If you are burning half your liquid at the top to run the pumps to pull it out, even if your production figures are going well, half of it is not getting to market to sell and return profit or power cars.

EROI is over blown by the doomsteaders waiting for the zombie apocolypse. But it does refelect a version of the physical reality that if your are scooping out very long chain hydrocarbons that need cracked or non conventional reservoir hydrocarbons that take a huge amount of energy to suck out the ground then volume of liquids produced is only a faction of the energy story.
But you describe an eroi of 2:1, not 10:1. I would agree that 2:1 is far more of an issue.

I would like to see sharp year-on-year falls in fossil fuel consumption, btw. Because of climate change, it is urgently necessary. Pursuing fracking is madness and it is putting valuable resources in the wrong place. But that doesn't mean I won't pull people up for shoddy arguments that don't make sense.
 
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But you describe an eroi of 2:1, not 10:1. I would agree that 2:1 is far more of an issue.
Who did? And as EROI declines it means that, like the Red Queen, we have to run faster in terms of volume to stand still. We are still living of off the backs of the great, huge fields of an earlier era. Saudi with its famous Arab D geology. Burgan in Kuwait and ageing fields near Kirkuik and Iran. But as we have to use more energy to get oil by drilling 5km into rock and lifting it or cracking a few hundred meters of tight shale to let some liquid flow, then the energy production sector will consume more of our total energy and the CO2 per joule will rise.

I am off the opinion the current model of capitalism will collapse even if someone flicks a switch and freezes the energy and climate issues (said as much in a recent thread on this forum). Throw in the added variables of energy cost and net availability and I think the wheels are already coming off. But collapse does not mean back to the stone age, just a return to flat or falling growth and constant crisis misdiagnosed as "banking" or "cost of living". [of note I dont think capitalism per se would collapse so quickly just the current model is already beginning to bifurcate].

Chaos and entropy.
 
Who did? And as EROI declines it means that, like the Red Queen, we have to run faster in terms of volume to stand still. We are still living of off the backs of the great, huge fields of an earlier era. Saudi with its famous Arab D geology. Burgan in Kuwait and ageing fields near Kirkuik and Iran. But as we have to use more energy to get oil by drilling 5km into rock and lifting it or cracking a few hundred meters of tight shale to let some liquid flow, then the energy production sector will consume more of our total energy and the CO2 per joule will rise..
Indeed. And if oil were our only option, we'd be in trouble. But it's not.

The frustration comes with the continued complacency of govts around the world. Some are better than others - Germany now produces some 20 per cent of its electricity with renewables, the UK a little under 5 per cent. Both rather low, but Germany is ahead in this regard. China has just declared a 'war on pollution'. We'll see how that works out over the next few years - China already invests more in renewable research than anywhere else, but that level of investment is set to rise, and they are committing to reducing the amount of coal they burn considerably.

We'll see. Things need to change markedly, but oil is not the be all and end all of energy production.
 
You have not shown us the massive fields on the Canadian Arctic that are going to stave off depletion.

You seem to feel things like chemistry, geology and engineering are beneath so august a political theorist as yourself. Descend from thy dalliances among the other gods and inform us, oh being of light, when conventional crude oil reserves go into decline (3-6% pa as per IEA) where is the new liquid energy going to come from and how this is going to be produced sans CO2?
I might come down from my beam of incandescent wonderfullness but only when you stop having tantrums.
This said, I think you've seen my point and I'm completely at ease that you don't agree.
 
I guess it's a little unfortunate that the environmental atrocities perpetrated under capitalist market economies are exceeded only by those perpetrated under its mainstream rivals (Aral Sea, anyone?). In which case, singling out Capitalism for opprobrium seems rather partisan.

If we are reliant on the left gaining power to save us from climate change and peak oil, then its time to stock up on ammo and tinned food.

More seriously, the point isn't specific to any particular flavour of politics, it's specific to positive feedback loops being allowed to drive our economic, industrial and food systems, such that they run human civilisation up against various hard natural limits.

The way that applies to the present world order is that those positive feedback loops, what Donella Meadows calls 'success to the successful loops', appear to be inherent in that way of organising production, that doesn't mean that they can't be present in alternative systems.
 
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id they? These studies often assume (without stating) the existence of a thing called "the global industrial manufacturing system" which their gadgets are the product of. A rather fatal assumption in EROI estimation, as it turns out.
still intent on telling the entire world they've got the method of calculating EROEI figures wrong I see, but also still entirely incapable of producing any actual numbers using your method... which to me makes your method the method that is fatally flawed, given how useless a method is if it's actually impossible to use to calculate any actual figures.

outside of free fall wood scavanaged from a natural growth forest and lit by rubbing 2 sticks together, all energy sources are entirely reliant on the same industrial manufacturing system, so it makes zero sense to attempt to assign the entirity of that same manufacturing system to each different energy source. EROEI figures for different raw materials have already been calculated to a reasonable degree of accuracy to include their average proportional energy costs from the manufacturing process, mining etc etc so there's no need for that calculation to be produced individually every time an EROEI calculation is carried out

no point in me going any further as you've deliberately chosen the path of idiocy on this point, I'm merely posting to point out to other casual readers why you're completely wrong on this point, and why all your statements on this point have zero relationship to any generally recognised EROEI figures.
 
Aye so if you double production but decrease net EROI by about 10 fold you get a fifth of the energy.

Yipee kayee motherfucker. That darned peak oil myth has been shattered.
What starting point do you have to use for that 10 fold reduction to get those figures to be correct? ah... 25:1 down to 2.5:1... yeah ok I'd agree that an average EROEI figure of 2.5:1 is unlikely to be sustainable, though it could probably be justified for certain specialist uses that couldn't be powered any other way - eg planes that need that level of energy density or something.

I don't see any potential of the average level going down to anything like that though, so for reference here is a more likely range of scenarios.

100 barrels of oil at 100:! EROEI = 99 barrels of oil to the economy, 1 used in the production of that oil

200 barrels of oil at 10:! EROEI = 180 barrels of oil to the economy, 20 barrels used in the production of that oil.

so double the oil, and reduce the EROEI by a factor of 10 and you end up with 82% more useful oil.

or increase the efficiency of the use of that oil by 10% and you negate the impact of the EROEI dropping from 100:! to 10:1

even if you were talking about EROEI dropping from 50:! to 5:! you'd still end up with 63% more oil with a doubling of production, or a 20% reduction in useful energy to the economy, which I'd argue is still within the range that the economy should be able to cope with via efficiency gains. There's already a pretty much built in efficiency gain of at least that in the replacement of the current car fleet with current generation fuel efficient vehicles for example.
 
Has anyone seen this?
http://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-...t-takes-flight-with-fuel-from-the-sea-concept

"Navy researchers at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Materials Science and Technology Division, demonstrate proof-of-concept of novel NRL technologies developed for the recovery of carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H2) from seawater and conversion to a liquid hydrocarbon fuel."

I'd imagine you'd need huge amounts of energy to do that, so it's effectively converting uranium to hydrocarbons for energy purposes
 
Like the Arctic, the Amazon is now open to petroleum plunder:
Now, Ecuador has just issued the first environmental permit for oil drilling deep in a previously untouched part of the Yasuní national park, block 43, meaning that the jungle region is now officially opened for business.
...
This is great news for investors, oil companies, oil workers and colonists of the area, but an unprecedented disaster for the indigenous tribes of the region, people concerned with a biologically diverse and ecologically healthy future for the planet, and most importantly for the thousands of plant and animal species native to this region.
The End of the Amazon
 


Nate Hagens on why the brain is driving us to over consume resources and wreck the climate. Thought one or two folk round here might appreciate it.

And lol. The fracking party is not over yet, but the chubby lady is warming up. Bakken is still growing but Eagle Ford looks like it is maxing out.

Texas RRC July Oil and Gas Report with May Production Numbers

Texas-Crude-Only.png




Texas-Condensate1.png


:D nice weather past couple of weeks.
 
I wonder if a reality adjustment is in store again later this year. There are some signs of the US fracking hype coming unstuck, although I've yet to find time to research this properly.

And Iraq was certainly touted as being an upcoming saviour of conventional production. Given current events in Iraq, apparently this has resulted in the unusual phenomenon of specific geopolitical tensions resulting in a rise of the longer-term price, rather than the immediate price:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/markets-oil-idUKL4N0QH1HW20140811

"The way in which oil is behaving with respect to the Iraqi geopolitical tensions is really the balance between potential short-term supply disruptions, which so far have been non-existent, versus the long-term supply growth prospects," said Mark Keenan, head of commodities research Asia at Societe Generale.

"It's unlikely to move higher unless there's a material disruption in supply. But the back-end of the curve has done most of the movement, with the premium staying in prices towards that area because of concerns about future output growth."

"Possibly for the first time in history, you've got geopolitical risks affecting long-term prices more than short-term prices which is obviously unusual," Keenan said.
 
I wonder if a reality adjustment is in store again later this year. There are some signs of the US fracking hype coming unstuck, although I've yet to find time to research this properly.
This might help:
Drilling Deeper reviews the twelve shale plays that account for 82% of the tight oil production and 88% of the shale gas production in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reference case forecasts through 2040... By 2040, production rates from the [top two plays] will be less than a tenth of that projected by the EIA. Tight oil production forecast by the EIA from plays other than the Bakken and Eagle Ford is in most cases highly optimistic and unlikely to be realized at the medium- and long-term rates projected.

"Drilling Deeper: A Reality Check On U.S. Government Forecasts For a Lasting Tight Oil & Shale Gas Boom", Resilience.org, 27 Oct 2014
 
The way that applies to the present world order is that those positive feedback loops, what Donella Meadows calls 'success to the successful loops', appear to be inherent in that way of organising production, that doesn't mean that they can't be present in alternative systems.
In "How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse", Greer, convincingly to my mind, advances a simple four variable model of the self-reinforcing relationships between resource, capital, waste and production, which allows the circumstances under which that occurs to be explored. The concepts of maintenance crisis, depletion crisis, catabolic collapse and (the best we can hope for) catabolic cycle are novel, and powerful generators of new political and economic models.
 
West Texas Intermediate selling at $67 a barrel. Saudi and co refusing to cut production. They seem determined to give "a good sweating" Rockerfeller style to the US tight oil producers. Some shale producers can allegedly hold out all the way down to $40, but many\some\a few will be struggling at $70. Interesting times as it seems the Saudis are killing the competition to drive prices higher in future.
 
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