LDC
On est tous des pangolins
No, not at all, but adding something to your post saying his timeline has been full of that all the way through the pandemic might be helpful and give a bit of context/raised eyebrow skepticism to his claims now.
Omicron news
- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
No, not at all, but adding something to your post saying his timeline has been full of that all the way through the pandemic might be helpful and give a bit of context/raised eyebrow skepticism to his claims now.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
There are obvious reasons why what's happening in SA now is of intense interest. I certainly am interested in seeing what is changing day by day there, and therefore I'm keeping an eye out for any easily digestible numbers. I also posted a Christina Pagel tweet with the same observation - that the case numbers in Gauteng seemed to have stopped following the fast exponential rise. I followed that with another one explaining this might be due to data issues. The Streicher tweets since then have included graphs which (as far as I can make out) have taken into account the data reporting issues, and it appears that it doesn't really change the picture of what looks like a significant slow-down in cases compared to the early fears. That to me is pretty important information, while of course remembering that we can't be sure it will translate to the same picture in the UK. So I have posted it on this thread. If anyone has alternative, better sources of graphs illustrating the ongoing situation in SA feel free to stick them up.
For the record I think the UK should have brought in greater restrictions this week, because of the potential for things to go very badly wrong very quickly in the more pessimistic scenarios. I won't change my view on that even if a week from now it's become clear that Omicron is nowhere near the threat that was feared.
For the record I think the UK should have brought in greater restrictions this week, because of the potential for things to go very badly wrong very quickly in the more pessimistic scenarios. I won't change my view on that even if a week from now it's become clear that Omicron is nowhere near the threat that was feared.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
See my post 502.
I've not followed him through the pandemic; I'd never heard of him until a couple of days ago.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm pleased to hear your remarks on what you think should have been done this time.
And I should point out that part of the reason I get especially tetchy at times like this is nothing to do with what individuals are saying, its because I get very nervous and depressed waiting to see what the reality will turn out to be like. And obviously this time around this comes on the back of many 2021 pandemic attitudes having done my head in for a long time already.
And I should point out that part of the reason I get especially tetchy at times like this is nothing to do with what individuals are saying, its because I get very nervous and depressed waiting to see what the reality will turn out to be like. And obviously this time around this comes on the back of many 2021 pandemic attitudes having done my head in for a long time already.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And there is the problem with potential good news at moments like this - we cant actually do much useful with any possible good news, due to differences in timing between when we need to act and when the true picture will be revealed. Whereas we really do have to act on potential bad news long before the underlying reality is clear. Its all rather draining and robs me of the ability to balance my natural instincts with something more optimistic.
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SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
His interpretation of those data though, namely that they somehow argue for the removal of all restrictions everywhere immediately, stinks of bad faith and vested interest.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
If there was good news after we brought in restrictions we would have the latitude to ease those restrictions. If we do nothing and then we get bad news, there's nowhere to go.
And given that the transmissibility (is that a word?) of Omicron seems unambiguously high, I can't really see where good news might come from.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Even the fucking Telegraph are scraping the bottom of the barrel, in that on todays front page they've had to resort to calling pandemic penis Robert Dingwall a government advisor.
Of somewhat more substance they've got some numbers from an early study that I havent seen yet which apparently says, based on analysis of 78,000 Omicron cases in South Africa, Omicron has a 29% lower hospitalisation risk than the Wuhan strain, and a 23% lower hospitalisation risk than the Delta strain. Should those estimates turn out to be a fair reflection of disease severity, those are not the sort of decreases I would consider to be sufficient to deliver really good news, given the expected number of infections. But different countries also have different thresholds and capacitiesfor admitting people to hospital in the first place, different experiences in the pandemic waves, as well as different demographics, differences in vaccine programmes etc. The same study also talks of 5% of patients being admitted to ICU as opposed to 22% for Delta, but again I havent looked at any detail and I'd need to check how such figures compare with things like Delta ICU cases in the UK.
l'Otters
.
Not sure if this belongs on another thread, or has already been covered on this one and I didn't pick up on it, but:
Can all PCR tests be checked for omicron?
Is this what's happening now?
Or is it expected to be happening very soon?
Reason for asking this today is I got a covid track n trace notification this morning; it's telling me I don't need to isolate because I've had vaccines (the page where you get asked that Q only has options for none/one/two; I've had three) - I understand this will change soon and I'd be instructed to isolate if it was a confirmed omicron case.
I'm cancelling this week's plans that involved leaving my house anyway but I'm curious how this plan is going to work out.
Can all PCR tests be checked for omicron?
Is this what's happening now?
Or is it expected to be happening very soon?
Reason for asking this today is I got a covid track n trace notification this morning; it's telling me I don't need to isolate because I've had vaccines (the page where you get asked that Q only has options for none/one/two; I've had three) - I understand this will change soon and I'd be instructed to isolate if it was a confirmed omicron case.
I'm cancelling this week's plans that involved leaving my house anyway but I'm curious how this plan is going to work out.
2hats
Dust.
The Discovery Health analysis? Note that that study also suggests 20% greater risk of hospitalisation of under-18s relative to the first wave. Two-dose Pfizer 70% effective at reducing omicron-related hospital admissions (down from 93% for delta).
Unfortunately one should be cautious drawing too many conclusions from the SA data and applying them to the UK because of the population pyramid (median age 27 v 41) and the widespread (>70%) recently acquired natural immunity from two 'waves' of antigenically diverse and significantly immune evasive variants (first beta, then delta).
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elbows
Well-Known Member
There is only a certain capacity to do proper genomic sequencing of PCR test results, and when case numbers are high the percentage they can test in this way is low. And it ended up low throughout much of the Delta wave that has dragged on for months, because the case numbers in that wave were consistently high.
They have another shortcut method to estimate which cases are Omicron, looking for S gene target droputs, but not all of the labs in the country can use that method either. But still a significantly greater proportion of samples than can be checked in that way than can be genomically sequenced, and I think the results are also much quicker.
In regards the Omicron self-isolation rules you describe, they already changed them since they first rushed them in. So the Omicron-specific stuff is gone, and if it hadnt been removed then I expect they would soon have been assuming that every case could be Omicron, so every close contact would have eventually ended up being told to isolate rather than authorities trying to work out Omicrom suspicions in each particular case.
Likely flaws with the new version of these rules include the fact it will likely be weaker at reducing the spread of infections, and also it wont be surprising if there are ongoing shortages of LFT deliveries and the tests not being in the right hands of all those who will need such tests in order to follow these rules. Advantages to the new rule include less staff being off work.
Daily rapid testing for COVID-19 contacts launches this week
From Tuesday, fully vaccinated contacts of a COVID-19 case should take a daily lateral flow test for 7 days to slow the spread of the virus.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thanks for finding the stufy and drawing attention to important detail. I'll take a look now.The Discovery Health analysis? Note that that study also suggests 20% greater risk of hospitalisation of under-18s relative to the first wave. Two-dose Pfizer 70% effective at reducing omicron-related hospital admissions (down from 93% for delta).
Unfortunately one should be cautious drawing too many conclusions from the SA data and applying them to the UK because of the population pyramid (median age 27 v 41) and the widespread (>70%) recently acquired natural immunity from two waves of antigenically diverse and significantly immune evasive variants (first beta, then delta).
Yeah I cant draw firm conclusions from South Africas data & analysis for the reasons you mention. I sporadically try to point out that South Africa had a Beta wave rather than an Alpha wave and that I dont like to make assumptions about any difference that and the size and timing of their waves may have compared to the UK. Likewise when it comes to vaccination, not just the differing rates of vaccination in the population but also the types of vaccines and dosing schedules they used compared to the UK.
Sounds like I'll have to keep an eye on UK hospitalisation rates by age group in the weeks ahead. Well I say the UK but I mostly mean England as thats the hospitalisation age data I am used to locating on a routine basis.
Apparently cases of omicron went from 1% of cases to 14% in one week here in Ireland.
That to me sounds like a massive jump. So by next week can we assume cases will be at 28% and by new years day will be 56% and by 7th Jan 100% ?
And if we currently have 4500 cases a day and 14% today was 630 and this virus doubles its rate every 2 days...then by 9th Jan everyone on the island of Ireland will have been infected.
And if hospitalisations are 25% less than currently.... they are 45 a day here at the moment. So lets say it goes to 11 a day...but omicron is 6 times more transmissable so lets make that 66 a day ...
And deaths here are 0.2% of hospitalisations...80 people a week...with delta....
And deaths predicted at 0.1% of population with omicron..that's 5500 deaths here....in the space of 6 weeks....
Wiith only 350 ICU beds in the entire country.
We are basically fucked. Omicron may well be mild but it will take people. Those who are most vulnerable and unvaccinated with underlying conditions.
Fuck.
It just does not look good...from the perspwctive of someone with underlying conditions and ectremely vulnerable despite vaccinations. Let alone someone who might not he able to be vaccinated.
That to me sounds like a massive jump. So by next week can we assume cases will be at 28% and by new years day will be 56% and by 7th Jan 100% ?
And if we currently have 4500 cases a day and 14% today was 630 and this virus doubles its rate every 2 days...then by 9th Jan everyone on the island of Ireland will have been infected.
And if hospitalisations are 25% less than currently.... they are 45 a day here at the moment. So lets say it goes to 11 a day...but omicron is 6 times more transmissable so lets make that 66 a day ...
And deaths here are 0.2% of hospitalisations...80 people a week...with delta....
And deaths predicted at 0.1% of population with omicron..that's 5500 deaths here....in the space of 6 weeks....
Wiith only 350 ICU beds in the entire country.
We are basically fucked. Omicron may well be mild but it will take people. Those who are most vulnerable and unvaccinated with underlying conditions.
Fuck.
It just does not look good...from the perspwctive of someone with underlying conditions and ectremely vulnerable despite vaccinations. Let alone someone who might not he able to be vaccinated.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
No. I mean it is possible (although highly unlikely) that the numbers could work out that way but you should not assume a linear extrapolation of the %.
There are a whole heap of factors to consider but a much more likely scenario for the % would be an S-curve like in figure (d) in this tweet
The % of omicron will increase slowly at first, then very fast and then slow down again.
So while I think there is plenty to be worried about - and I certainly want to see governments take more mitigating actions - a lot of the assumption you are making probably don't hold and some of the working is not correct.
Supine
Newt Member
Apparently cases of omicron went from 1% of cases to 14% in one week here in Ireland.
That to me sounds like a massive jump. So by next week can we assume cases will be at 28% and by new years day will be 56% and by 7th Jan 100% ?
And if we currently have 4500 cases a day and 14% today was 630 and this virus doubles its rate every 2 days...then by 9th Jan everyone on the island of Ireland will have been infected.
And if hospitalisations are 25% less than currently.... they are 45 a day here at the moment. So lets say it goes to 11 a day...but omicron is 6 times more transmissable so lets make that 66 a day ...
And deaths here are 0.2% of hospitalisations...80 people a week...with delta....
And deaths predicted at 0.1% of population with omicron..that's 5500 deaths here....in the space of 6 weeks....
Wiith only 350 ICU beds in the entire country.
We are basically fucked. Omicron may well be mild but it will take people. Those who are most vulnerable and unvaccinated with underlying conditions.
Fuck.
It just does not look good...from the perspwctive of someone with underlying conditions and ectremely vulnerable despite vaccinations. Let alone someone who might not he able to be vaccinated.
You can’t use those predictions. But it isn’t looking good.
andysays
Love and solidarity
But in the short term of the next few weeks which Sugar Kane is referring to, the numbers (both the raw Covid numbers and the proportion due to Omicron) are likely to be going up rapidly and in fact more rapidly than ATM.
It's going to be a while before we start to see the tailing off of the rate shown in those graphs, which suggest one variant being essentially replaced by another rather than, say, Delta and Omicron co-existing in some sort of balance or equilibrium.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Sugar Kane's prediction for the rate in increase in % Omicron is probably an underestimate, you'll go from ~15% to ~85% much faster.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I didn't properly take in your point about not assuming linear extrapolation
teuchter
je suis teuchter
...although those graphs give what might be a misleading impression that Denmark is "ahead". These ones suggest Denmark and London are at a similar point.
www.ft.com
Surge in Omicron cases in Denmark and UK sends warning to rest of Europe
Two countries show how the coronavirus variant is driving rates of infection and hospital admission
Supine
Newt Member
YesI get the feeling I've asked this question already but can't remember
Can the current LFTs detect Omicron?
elbows
Well-Known Member
In addition to the problems with making projections that are based on linear rather than exponential growth, at the moment there is no certainty about what will happen with existing Delta strain numbers. So authorities are only talking about Omicron becoming the majority of cases, not that all cases will become Omicron. So forget about the 100% thing for now.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Even if you find peaks quite quickly due to the speed of this variant, I would urge you to consider the age-based data that was really quite significant in the UK Delta wave, telling a somewhat different story.
By this I mean that the July peak in overall positive case numbers we had was driven by a younger age group, and did not end up mirroring the highest burden on hospitals, which came later.
I suppose peaks in various countries are still of some interest to me, but the data I am even more focussed on is what happens with Omicron numbers in older age groups. No doubt my graphs in the weeks to come will often focus on this.
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
This fellow has just popped up on UnHerd TV on YouTube. I’ve not yet watched it, but based on past Freddie Sayers / UnHerd interviews I would guess it’s a going to be a detailed dive into and cross examination of his views. Might be of interest to some who either want to better understand or refute his viewpoint.
elbows
Well-Known Member
No chance, I'll just get wound up and I'd rather just wait and see what actually happens. Omicron could end up being part of the pandemic exit story but the details could still be ugly and I'm in no mood to indulge certain optimistic versions of that right now, not at this precarious moment. I have no intention of trying to predict happy outcomes in advance, especially when there is always the risk it wont be a happy outcome. I'll be content to applaud the end only when hindsight and certainty allow.
