Omicron news

[two sheds]

Omicron found to grow 70 times faster than Delta in bronchial tissue

Study of tubes between windpipe and lungs could help explain Covid variant’s rapid transmission

www.theguardian.com

This could contribute.

 

[existentialist]

Of course its needed now, but if a lockdown was announced to start tomorrow I reckon the only people that would pay any attention to it would be those that are for all intents and purposes doing it voluntarily already.

Well, yes. Because - unlike in many other countries, we don't even try to make it look like we're enforcing anything.

(TBF, Wales has had a better record on this in earlier lockdowns, but I'm not sure that's up to much now)

 

[_Russ_]

Nah, Wales did no more to enforce anything than England did (I.E. Ffuck all), though first time round lots adhered as it was actually stated as being the law, but soon as everyone noticed there wasnt any enforcement then the selfish cunt contingent just did what they liked and that is the current situation

 

[andysays]

Soo do we know... is the quick spread of omicron down to how quickly someone exposed then becomes infectious, or just how many more people one person will pass it on to.. or bit of both?

I would guess that those two factors are connected, and that the quicker someone becomes infectious, the more people they're likely to pass it on to. particularly if asymptomatic.

 

[StoneRoad]

I would guess that those two factors are connected, and that the quicker someone becomes infectious, the more people they're likely to pass it on to. particularly if asymptomatic.

Which is why - I think - people should mask up and keep their distance ... at the very least.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

France closing the boarders to British travellers in a futile attempt to stop it coming in. French and EU citizens are still allowed to enter.

 

[StoneRoad]

France closing the boarders to British travellers in a futile attempt to stop it coming in. French and EU citizens are still allowed to enter.

I agree !

 

[MrCurry]

France closing the boarders to British travellers in a futile attempt to stop it coming in. French and EU citizens are still allowed to enter.

That’ll work then Probably more political than anything else.

 

[2hats]

France closing the boarders to British travellers in a futile attempt to stop it coming in.

Understandable given as how public schoolboys are well known to exacerbate this pandemic.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Understandable given as how public schoolboys are well known to exacerbate this pandemic.

Meh, they're still allowed in, just had a call from a Radley College one who was worried that he wouldn't be allowed back next week. "You live in Monaco, it's fine."

 

[Flavour]

it's futile but it's prob the right thing to do

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Still can't use it as an excuse to stay here for the birthday of our lord and saviour then. :/
e2a: actually I'll have to isolate for 2 days out of the 3 days I'm there...
ffs

 

[cupid_stunt]

There are 15 confirmed people in UK hospitals with the Omicron variant, but the actual number is likely to be “much bigger.”

Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser of the UK Health Security Agency, told the Commons Health and Social Care Committee:

"The released numbers that we released yesterday are 15. However we are constantly working on data linkage to improve that, and we will release new numbers this afternoon"

But England’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, added: “The real number will be much bigger than that. That is simply the number who are proven, just to be clear.”

Covid live: Italy reports highest daily cases since March; Canada’s Omicron cases ‘could overwhelm Ontario ICUs’

Italy reports 26,109 new cases, its highest daily number since 12 March; experts warn Ontario hospitals could be overwhelmed

www.theguardian.com

 

[Yossarian]

The pessimistic but reliable Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is comparing headlines about omicron being mild to the Jan-March 2020 headlines about COVID being milder than the flu.

 

[two sheds]

I read symptoms can come on between 2 and 14 days after exposure - means you can be walking round with it infecting people for quite a while

 

[danny la rouge]

I heard it's got magnets on its tail, so's if you're made out of metal it can attach itself to you and instead of a mouth, it's got four arses!

 

[Mation]

I heard it's got magnets on its tail, so's if you're made out of metal it can attach itself to you and instead of a mouth, it's got four arses!

Guessing you didn't intend that to come out sounding quite so mean!

 

[Saunders]

Whoops accidental post

 

[danny la rouge]

Guessing you didn't intend that to come out sounding quite so mean!

It’s a Father Ted quote. I didn’t intend it to sound mean.

 

[weltweit]

Covid-19: Omicron is causing more infections but fewer hospital admissions than delta, South African data show

Data from South Africa’s largest private health insurer suggest that omicron is spreading faster than any previous coronavirus variant and showing signs of immune escape, with both vaccinated and previously infected people more at risk than in previous waves. More than 90% of newly sequenced...

www.bmj.com

 

[elbows]

The big questions about Omicron hospitalisation will have to be answered in the UK context, and there is likely to be quite a strong relationship between the emerging realities of that and what happens in terms of Omicron case numbers in people that are not young. Also chuck in some unknowns about vaccine protection against severe disease. And some unknowns about whether there is increased hospital risk for younger people too.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The big questions about Omicron hospitalisation will have to be answered in the UK context, and there is likely to be quite a strong relationship between the emerging realities of that and what happens in terms of Omicron case numbers in people that are not young. Also chuck in some unknowns about vaccine protection against severe disease.

While this is true, the South Africa numbers are far from worthless. For starters, SA numbers for omicron can be compared with SA numbers for previous waves. The difference is startling thus far - case fatality rates falling from around 3% to around 0.5% within the same population (and a significant chunk of that 0.5% are delta infections).

We've all been waiting to see if South Africa goes pear-shaped with omicron over the last three weeks. It still hasn't happened. Yes, SA has a very high number of people previously infected with other variants, but so does the UK, and the UK has far higher vaccination among the high-risk groups. SA's daily covid deaths are still only around 30 per day, which, with a population about the same size as the UK's, is way lower than the UK's rate at any point since July. There are reporting issues of course, but the excess death data released on Wednesday showed SA's excess deaths running a little up, but only a little.

There is a strong pattern here that SA sees excess deaths go up before reported covid deaths in each wave, but each week that goes by without this happening significantly adds to the evidence pool suggesting that this wave is something very different. Add to that the reports from the ground about the different nature of infection, oxygen needs etc.



https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa


Something that I'm surprised hasn't been picked up on more widely is this study published in pre-print last week suggesting that omicron has become more infectious by nicking some DNA from a cold virus inside someone (probably an HIV-infected person) infected with both. That does provide a decent explanation both for the much higher infectiousness and the milder symptoms. It may be wrong, of course, but it makes sense as a mechanism by which it has become, as the study says, 'more human'.

Omicron may have acquired a mutation from common cold virus, say researchers

 

[elbows]

The size of South Africas population compared to the UK is far less relevant than their population pyramid compared to the UKs. This, along with differences in previous waves (including that they had a beta wave rather than an alpha wave, and the proportion of their population that seems to have had a prior covid infection) are some of the reasons why I cannot use South Africas situation as a really strong guide as to what will happen in the UK.

I do not exclude the possibility that some of the positive indicators from South Africa will have some impact on what happens in the UK, but I cannot rely on this at all at this stage. I can use some of that stuff in order to retain in my mind the possibility that the UKs Omicron wave may not be a complete catastrophe, but I cannot have sufficient confidence in that outcome that I could use it to heavily influence my impresssion of what measures need to be taken in the UK. Pandemic policies based on optimism and best case scenarios are sadly unsuitable, we have to act with the worst case possibilities in mind instead. Only once we have experienced a wave that demonstrates that the nature of the Covid threat has been transformed (or a prolonged absence of huge waves), could I begin to factor in such possibilities strongly when it comes to the future of this virus and how we must respond to it.

A population pyramid for South Africa, the shape of which is so incredibility different to what we are used to seeing for nations like our own:

Demographics of South Africa - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Supine]

While this is true, the South Africa numbers are far from worthless. For starters, SA numbers for omicron can be compared with SA numbers for previous waves. The difference is startling thus far - case fatality rates falling from around 3% to around 0.5% within the same population (and a significant chunk of that 0.5% are delta infections).

We've all been waiting to see if South Africa goes pear-shaped with omicron over the last three weeks. It still hasn't happened. Yes, SA has a very high number of people previously infected with other variants, but so does the UK, and the UK has far higher vaccination among the high-risk groups. SA's daily covid deaths are still only around 30 per day, which, with a population about the same size as the UK's, is way lower than the UK's rate at any point since July. There are reporting issues of course, but the excess death data released on Wednesday showed SA's excess deaths running a little up, but only a little.

There is a strong pattern here that SA sees excess deaths go up before reported covid deaths in each wave, but each week that goes by without this happening significantly adds to the evidence pool suggesting that this wave is something very different. Add to that the reports from the ground about the different nature of infection, oxygen needs etc.

View attachment 301278

https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa


Something that I'm surprised hasn't been picked up on more widely is this study published in pre-print last week suggesting that omicron has become more infectious by nicking some DNA from a cold virus inside someone (probably an HIV-infected person) infected with both. That does provide a decent explanation both for the much higher infectiousness and the milder symptoms. It may be wrong, of course, but it makes sense as a mechanism by which it has become, as the study says, 'more human'.

Omicron may have acquired a mutation from common cold virus, say researchers

Do you have a link to the pre-print? An article that doesn’t specify what this supposed change is isn’t much use.

 

[elbows]

This post covers that:

#430

(nference, MA) A preprint of a comparative mutational analysis of omicron with other HCoV suggests it exhibits signs of recombination with a common cold coronavirus, possibly HCoV-229E (though there are other potential candidates, eg HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Do you have a link to the pre-print? An article that doesn’t specify what this supposed change is isn’t much use.

Here.

https://osf.io/f7txy/

It's by no means definitive proof that omicron has mutated into something much milder, but it is at least a plausible mechanism by which it may have done so.

 

[elbows]

Also note an alternative possibility to the 'immunocompromised human host' possibility.

Rodents, more specifically mice.

#443

 

[elbows]

Omicron found to grow 70 times faster than Delta in bronchial tissue

Study of tubes between windpipe and lungs could help explain Covid variant’s rapid transmission

www.theguardian.com

This could contribute.

Details from that are relevant to the recent discussion of severity, cold-like attributes, more effective transmission and NHS burden:

The Omicron Covid variant has been found to multiply about 70 times quicker than the original and Delta versions of coronavirus in tissue samples taken from the bronchus, the main tubes from the windpipe to the lungs, in laboratory experiments that could help explain its rapid transmission.

The study, by a team from the University of Hong Kong, also found that the new variant grew 10 times slower in lung tissue, which the authors said could be an indicator of lower disease severity.

Michael Chan Chi-wai, who led the work, said the result needed to be interpreted with caution because severe disease is determined not only by how quickly the virus replicates but also by a person’s immune response and, in particular, whether the immune system goes into overdrive, causing a so-called cytokine storm.

“It is also noted that by infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic,” he said. “Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the Omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from the Omicron variant is likely to be very significant.”

That last point I quoted takes us back to the simple maths of severity vs transmissibility and why I cannot find a lot of reassurance at the moment. I can hope, but I cannot do much with that hope, and the shadow of the basic maths still looms large in my mind. A phenomenal reduction in severity could change the balance of that maths, but it probably needs to be massive to have the desired outcome.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The size of South Africas population compared to the UK is far less relevant than their population pyramid compared to the UKs. This, along with differences in previous waves (including that they had a beta wave rather than an alpha wave, and the proportion of their population that seems to have had a prior covid infection) are some of the reasons why I cannot use South Africas situation as a really strong guide as to what will happen in the UK.

I do not exclude the possibility that some of the positive indicators from South Africa will have some impact on what happens in the UK, but I cannot rely on this at all at this stage. I can use some of that stuff in order to retain in my mind the possibility that the UKs Omicron wave may not be a complete catastrophe, but I cannot have sufficient confidence in that outcome that I could use it to heavily influence my impresssion of what measures need to be taken in the UK. Pandemic policies based on optimism and best case scenarios are sadly unsuitable, we have to act with the worst case possibilities in mind instead. Only once we have experienced a wave that demonstrates that the nature of the Covid threat has been transformed (or a prolonged absence of huge waves), could I begin to factor in such possibilities strongly when it comes to the future of this virus and how we must respond to it.

A population pyramid for South Africa, the shape of which is so incredibility different to what we are used to seeing for nations like our own:

Demographics of South Africa - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Sure, which is why you have to compare SA with SA.

And the pattern of divergence is emerging.

Just from a rough look at worldometers, on the day the average daily case numbers hit 10,000 for delta, there was an average of 110 deaths reported per day. On the day, the average cases hit 20,000 for delta (its peak), there was an average of more than 400 reported deaths per day. The equivalent numbers for omicron are 24 and 25 (12 days ago and 4 days ago respectively).

Those are weekly averages for the seven days previous to those dates, so there was an average of 10,000 cases per day across the whole week in the week ending nearly two weeks ago in SA. That provides a decent lag for deaths to start appearing.

 

[teuchter]

Just from a rough look at worldometers, on the day the average daily case numbers hit 10,000 for delta, there was an average of 110 deaths reported per day. On the day, the average cases hit 20,000 for delta (its peak), there was an average of more than 400 reported deaths per day. The equivalent numbers for omicron are 24 and 25 (12 days ago and 4 days ago respectively).

Still not entirely reassuring in the scenario where the case number reach over 10x their previous highs though... which I guess is why everyone is hoping that the peaks are shown to happen relatively early.