Omicron news

[elbows]

Following on from my previous response xenon I have had a quick go at counting the number of cases detected in England via official positive results from the start of June to the end of November, so covering the bulk of the Delta wave. Take these numbers with a pinch of salt for several reasons, not least that the testing system does not capture anything like the full picture, many people dont get a test. Many of Decembers cases were also Delta but I cant be getting into picking apart Delt from Omicron these days so I just stopped at the end of November instead.

I've broken these down into broad age groups to give some sense of where particular concerns may be right now. Figures are for England rather than the UK.

For people aged 0-19 I counted around 1.7 million.
For ages 20-39 I counted around 1.4 million.
For ages 40-59 the number I have is around 1.2 million.
For those aged 60 and above I see around 450,000 in the official figures.

Combine that sort of picture with vaccine uncertainties and the very different population demographics of South Africa, and if I were the UK authorities I would be concerned about the Omicron impact across age groups but in older people especially.

 

[2hats]

Part of the explanation for relatively low hospitalisation figures, is because they've had so many cases of delta and prior beta, that this may afford some immunity.

Haven't we been having thousands of cases of delta for months, why would this not do the same?

SA: two consecutive waves, first of beta (highly immune evasive) then delta, in a younger population with much lower vaccination coverage.
UK: one recent wave (delta) in an older population with much higher vaccination coverage.

Immunity acquired by infection after vaccination is blunted (that's what vaccines do!) compared to immunity acquired by infection with no vaccination. Also consider: survivorship bias.

e2a:

 

[Mation]

It’s a Father Ted quote. I didn’t intend it to sound mean.

Ah. My Father Ted knowledge is certainly wanting.

Thank you for just saying what it was about and what you meant/didn't mean, rather than launching into battle*. Massively helpful for us literal folk (or me, at least).

*E2a: Not that you do, in case it sounded like that. But it's a thing that can happen with (other) people.

 

[2hats]

It's all part of report 49.

More detailed analysis of the global impact on omicron of booster doses in report 48.

 

[Spandex]

The people making the most noise about the figures in South Africa seem to be the same 'it's just flu' crew who've been talking down the seriousness of Covid since March 2020. That means anything they point at fails to reassure me.

Who knows if they're onto somthing? I have no idea what's going to happen in the UK in the next couple of weeks and nor does anyone else. We might be heading for disaster; or boosters/immunity/the nature of Omicron might mean we get away with it.

With tens of thousands of lives at risk pointing at early, inconclusive, figures from another continent and going 'it'll probably be okay' doesn't strike me as the best public health approach.

 

[elbows]

Yeah I will be content to dance around to good news only with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[elbows]

AMSTERDAM, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The health experts advising the Netherlands' government on COVID-19 strategy have recommended the country go into a "strict" lockdown, Dutch media reported on Friday, just days after a partial lockdown was extended through January.

Broadcaster RTL Nieuws and newspaper NRC Handelsblad cited sources within the panel of experts, whose recommendations are not made public until after the government has taken a decision, that they have advised the closure of all but essential stores.

Dutch health experts advise a full lockdown to slow Omicron -media

The health experts advising the Netherlands' government on COVID-19 strategy have recommended the country go into a "strict" lockdown, Dutch media reported on Friday, just days after a partial lockdown was extended through January.

www.reuters.com

 

[elbows]

SAGE minutes leaked to the BBC again for at least the third time in a row:

Covid: Action needed to limit hospital admissions - Sage scientists

Scientists say admissions could reach 3,000 a day in England if more restrictions are not brought in soon.

www.bbc.co.uk

The document says there are "many uncertainties" about the future path of hospitalisations linked to Omicron.

According to the leaked minutes, the Sage advisers say that without intervention measures beyond the Plan B rules currently in place, modelling indicates that hospital admissions could peak at "at least" 3,000 a day in England.

The Sage minutes say: "If the aim is to reduce the levels of infection in the population and prevent hospitalisations reaching these levels, more stringent measures would need to be implemented very soon."

The record of the meeting goes on to say that measures equivalent to those in place after Step Two or Step One of the roadmap in England, if enacted early enough, "could substantially reduce the peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone".

Step One and Two of the roadmap for easing lockdown - which was in place in England in the Spring - banned indoor social contact and indoor hospitality. Step Three allowed six people, or two households, to meet indoors and indoor hospitality could reopen.

"The timing of such measures is crucial," say the Sage minutes. "Delaying until 2022 would greatly reduce the effectiveness of such interventions and make it less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings."

Sounds like quite a bit of whats said in the minutes relates to the modelling we already talked about recently.

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

 

[xenon]

I've got a mate from Zimbabwe. This time last year, was how so many more cases were brought there and other countries around South Africa. As just that, workers going home for Christmas. He actually lost a life long mate who was in his 40s through it.

 

[teuchter]

I don't really get how a portion of the population leaving would produce a peak. More like a ledge surely? Even if half of the entire population leaves...if the rate is a doubling every couple of days, you've only delayed reaching a certain number by a couple of days haven't you?

 

[_Russ_]

The whole travel to see your family thing is for the UK a cultural import made easy by mass car ownership and cheap air travel, 40 years ago nobody did it, now its viewed as some sort of societal right.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The whole travel to see your family thing is for the UK a cultural import made easy by mass car ownership and cheap air travel, 40 years ago nobody did it, now its viewed as some sort of societal right.

Bollocks, we always went to visit our grandparents over the Christmas period, over 40 years ago.

 

[Supine]

My unvaxxed sis, BiL and three kids are leaving omicron head office to visit us next week for xmas. Not exactly happy about living in the same house as a bunch of londoners who are going out socialising this weekend.

 

[zora]

Well, chances are extremely high that they will catch covid beforehand and have to cancel their travels, if that's any consolation...:/

 

[two sheds]

Well, chances are extremely high that they will catch covid beforehand and have to cancel their travels, if that's any consolation...:/

whether they will cancel is another thing by the sound of it. I'd phone them and say 'sorry, but no'.

 

[Pickman's model]

Bollocks, we always went to visit our grandparents over the Christmas period, over 40 years ago.

It'll save you time if each time you see Russ by a post you just skip past it

 

[kabbes]

Have we done pronunciation yet?

I thought omicron (literally micro o) in Ancient Greek was “oh”.

Whereas omega (literally mega o) in Ancient Greek was “aw”.

So why has everyone seemingly settled on aw-micron instead of oh-micron?

It’s because people have become confused between Ancient Greek and Modern Greek. Like a lot of languages, Greek has undergone some serious vowel (and consonant) shifts in the last few thousand years. The letters iota, omicron and upsilon used to be pronounced, respectively, like “eye”, “oh” and “eye” (again), equivalent to i, o and y in how we pronounce words like “micro” for the former two and “Pythagoras” in the last case. But this isn’t the case any more. Modern Greek doesn’t have these vowel sounds (well, the “eye” sound still exists and is rendered as αι but it is not how either ι or υ are pronounced any more). As such, the letter ο or omicron is pounced “o’ mee cron“ with a short o. (Similarly, pi is now pronounced “pee” and chi is pounced “chee”).

For the variants, I think they are trying to use Ancient Greek, and that’s what people are used to in terms of saying things like “delta” (which is now more like dhelta) and pi. In that case, it should be oh-m-eye-cron. But unlike delta and pi, people in the West aren’t used to hearing the Greek letter “omicron” so they have turned to hearing how the Greeks say it, which means they are picking up the modern pronunciation instead.

 

[elbows]

I don't really get how a portion of the population leaving would produce a peak. More like a ledge surely? Even if half of the entire population leaves...if the rate is a doubling every couple of days, you've only delayed reaching a certain number by a couple of days haven't you?

I'd need to know the place and the holiday well in order to judge. But certainly keep in mind the vast number of opportunities the virus needs in order to sustain doubling.

And then consider what happened here when the Euros ended and schools went on holiday. The established pattern of contacts changes overnight, and in the case of the UK this led to a peak that most commentators didnt seem to be expecting, despite Scotland having experienced the same thing. Then consider how potent this effect was when so many of the cases were driven by young age groups. Throw in large changes to workforce mixing patterns, and the possibility that the virus was already going to struggle to keep finding twice as many fresh victims to infect, and perhaps the possibility can seem more plausible to you. We can also add in how these sudden changes in behaviour can also affect testing, and publication of test data, although in this case there was also the wastewater analysis that I mentioned earlier. Obviously there is a difference between a peak and the permanent decline of a wave, again as seen in the UK when it came to Delta dragging on, so I dont read as much into peaks now as I did to peaks that were behaviour+lockdown induced, where we knew those brakes would be left on some months, pushing levels of infection all the way down in a sustained way. But even when that doesnt happen, sudden changes to viral momentum can take some time to come undone.

 

[teuchter]

It seems plausible that it could bring an apparent "peak" forward somewhat, but less plausible that it could disguise a situation where otherwise a very rapid increase would have been sustained for some time.

It seems like most people are kind of agreed on what the doubling time is for the Omicron variant - much faster than previous ones - but much of the disagreement is around how long it can sustain that rapid growth. Of course, the answer to that might be quite different in different populations.

 

[_Russ_]

Bollocks, we always went to visit our grandparents over the Christmas period, over 40 years ago.

You is not representative of the UK as a whole..thank fuck

 

[cupid_stunt]

You is not representative of the UK as a whole..thank fuck

You fucking eejit.

 

[Carvaged]

You is not representative of the UK as a whole..thank fuck

I found this interesting. I asked all the old people I know (a princely sample size of 5) and they claimed it was actually pretty normal for family dispersed all over the country to meet up for Christmas: even before mass car ownership, people were pretty happy to make use of trains and buses, of which there were a far higher and more convenient number and route density than today, of course.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I found this interesting. I asked all the old people I know (a princely sample size of 5) and they claimed it was actually pretty normal for family dispersed all over the country to meet up for Christmas: even before mass car ownership, people were pretty happy to make use of trains and buses, of which there were a far higher and more convenient number and route density than today, of course.

Of course it was, _Russ_ is just posting bollocks again.

 

[teuchter]

Yeah, _Russ_ is talking nonsense. 40 years ago was already the 80s anyway.

 

[teuchter]

Also, cupid_stunt is very much "average UK person".

 

[two sheds]

Yeh I always went home for Christmas right from the 70s, even when I was living in the Netherlands - I went by train.

 

[elbows]

It seems plausible that it could bring an apparent "peak" forward somewhat, but less plausible that it could disguise a situation where otherwise a very rapid increase would have been sustained for some time.

It seems like most people are kind of agreed on what the doubling time is for the Omicron variant - much faster than previous ones - but much of the disagreement is around how long it can sustain that rapid growth. Of course, the answer to that might be quite different in different populations.

At the heart of traditional modelling is the number of remaining susceptible people at each moment in time, so yes that is a huge factor.

In this case people were just warning about over-interpreting recent data. I dont think they made any specific claims about when a peak would happen if it were not for the holiday there. Looking at things in a simplistic way, if the climb up a peak is very steep, we might expect the peak to diminish rapidly and for the overall length of wave to be quite different to that seen with slower variants. Because the virus will burn through the suscpetible population more rapidly. Complications to this simplistic picture include as always the impact of people changing their behaviours when faced with such waves.