Omicron news
- Thread starter weltweit
- Start date
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Khan last did this on January the 8th 2021, two days after what was to turn out as the peak of patient admissions at 977/day. In this omicron wave the latest data is for 210 admission on the 15th. If Khan had declared a major incident at 210 admissions in the delta wave he'd have done it a whole month earlier on 7 Dec 2020 when admissions were exactly 210.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
then there is staff shortages in the ambulance service (100 ambulances down in London) and hospitals.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah staff shortages are an even bigger issue this time, as expected with a variant this transmissible, this vaccine-evading and with such a low doubling time.
This was one of the non-hospital reasons for previous lockdowns, since by reducing all sorts of normal human activities massively, some non-covid pressure on emergency services is relieved a bit. The authorities actually acknowledged this the first time they had to start cancelling mass events in wave 1. Though part of the reason they acknowledged it back then was to downplay the extent to which they were u-turning on mass gatherings for covid transmission reasons, having previously claimed outdoor events werent a big transmission issue.
This was one of the non-hospital reasons for previous lockdowns, since by reducing all sorts of normal human activities massively, some non-covid pressure on emergency services is relieved a bit. The authorities actually acknowledged this the first time they had to start cancelling mass events in wave 1. Though part of the reason they acknowledged it back then was to downplay the extent to which they were u-turning on mass gatherings for covid transmission reasons, having previously claimed outdoor events werent a big transmission issue.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
teuchter
je suis teuchter
In fact not quite a whole one of either.
bimble
floofy
I might be growing paranoid, living under this government for what seems like decades, but it seems possible that they'll change the rules on isolation, to make it significantly shorter, to address the staffing disaster that is happening. The numbers are incredible, not just the firefighters and hospital staff but everything else too the less visible stuff.
Already we don't have to isolate at all if we are a vaccinated confirmed contact of covid positive people which tbh makes no medical sense really at all does it.
Already we don't have to isolate at all if we are a vaccinated confirmed contact of covid positive people which tbh makes no medical sense really at all does it.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Dutch Omicron lockdown confirmed. Back at the start of the pandemic their establishments instincts were quite similar to the UKs in terms of the 'herd immunity' approach.
Covid: Dutch go into Christmas lockdown over Omicron wave
Non-essential shops, schools, bars, restaurants and other public venues will be closed until at least mid-January.
www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont think thats growing paranoid, its more like seeing whats on the front page of the fucking Daily Mail today.
I wont have a complete meltdown if they reduce it to 7 days, since thats better than essential services having a complete meltdown. If it must be done it should be done at the same time as compensatory measures to reduce number of infections in other ways. Which is not what the fucking Mail have in mind.
Newspaper headlines: Fresh Omicron fears and No 10 inquiry 'in disarray'
The focus of most front pages this morning is on the No 10 parties' inquiry chief Simon Case quitting his role.
www.bbc.co.uk
prunus
Tick tock.
I think it’s not that it won’t help at all, just that it won’t prevent hospitalisations rising through the early months of 2022.
Very roughly, if it takes 2 weeks from infection to hospitalisation, and 2 weeks from booster to extra protection, then vaccinations happening today don’t have an effect on hospitalisation rates for 4 weeks.
Very roughly, if it takes 2 weeks from infection to hospitalisation, and 2 weeks from booster to extra protection, then vaccinations happening today don’t have an effect on hospitalisation rates for 4 weeks.
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France should be fine 
Time-lapse of long Eurostar queue before travel ban
Travellers in St Pancras station, London, line up to get to France before it closes its borders to the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
When we lived in the Outer Hebrides people came home for Christmas from all over.
8ball
Merr xmas...
France should be fine
Time-lapse of long Eurostar queue before travel ban
Travellers in St Pancras station, London, line up to get to France before it closes its borders to the UK.www.bbc.co.uk
Yeah, that looks fine.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Real numbers wont even need to come close to some of this modelling in order for very bad things to still happen:
www.theguardian.com
UK scientists: bring in curbs now or face up to 2m daily Covid infections as Omicron spreads
Deaths could hit 6,000 a day and delaying restrictions until New Year will cut effectiveness, say Sage experts
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
PCR = PRC
makes you think
8ball
Merr xmas...
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
LFT = TFL
Well, the vessels of your liver do resemble a tube map (sortish of vaguely) so liver function tests could be of use to the mappers at TFL.
Realistically, infections can't run at 2 million a day for very long. In a week, you'd have infected 20% of the UK population. After a month, there is literally nobody left to infect, but the bushfire would have burned out long before that point.
Don't get me wrong, this is a disastrous scenario that would totally fuck things up, and the systems would collapse for as long as the badly ill infected people that need hospitalisation stay alive, which means that many people would unnecessarily die. I'm just saying that you can't reduce it to the soundbite of "2 million infected a day."
Don't get me wrong, this is a disastrous scenario that would totally fuck things up, and the systems would collapse for as long as the badly ill infected people that need hospitalisation stay alive, which means that many people would unnecessarily die. I'm just saying that you can't reduce it to the soundbite of "2 million infected a day."
8ball
Merr xmas...
Well, the vessels of your liver do resemble a tube map (sortish of vaguely) so liver function tests could be of use to the mappers at TFL.
I was going with Lateral Flow Test.
elbows
Well-Known Member
You can talk about that as a peak value, especially if talking about the actual number of infections on a day rather than the number we manage to detect.
And yes we might expect a rapid variant like Omicron to burn through the population rather rapidly, at least if peoples behaviour doesnt change enough.
You can, but then the headline, "up to 2m daily infections" is misleading. "Daily" implies some kind of sustained rate, not a peak.
elbows
Well-Known Member
No claim is built into the headline as to how long that would be sustained, and previous stuff months ago from the likes of Javid warning of 100,000 cases a day were not so very different, in terms of lacking detail of the wider context. Such figures are really an illustration of how rapidly exponential growth can lead to staggeringly huge numbers. Such nubers often fail to come to full fruition due to the massive disruption to contact mixing patterns that arise from things like self-isolation, large behavioural shifts and new restrictions. And there is no way our testing system will manage to formally record a huge chunk of them once they grow that big, but some very large Omicron numbers will probably show up via different sorts of case estimates, whatever happens next.
I guess my point is that things are fucked up enough as it is. There is no need to create things unrealistically beyond fucked-up to talk about. If the paper talks about the rate reaching "2m daily infections" and then it actually "only" reaches 1m daily infections (and that for "only" five days, say), you give the establishment an out to say, "well, it wasn't as bad as they said it might get."
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
FFS! Is that really the best that can be predicted? The high figures are ten times that of the low. Ten times.
