Omicron news

[andysays]

Was it one day post admission? I hadn’t read that. All the hospitalisations tested positive before or on admission (ie it wasn’t somebody already admitted testing positive for omicron.)

What I meant was, hospitalisations and deaths from omicron are entirely expected and the fact that they’re happening shouldn’t change one’s assessment of the danger.

I think that's the point Raheem was making - it's not clear that this particular death is someone who was admitted the day before.

All we really know is that the first known admissions to hospital with Omicron happened yesterday, and the first known death with Omicron happened today, and I suspect they're unlikely to release any more specific info than that, TBH.

But the wider point about which there should be no doubt is that the situation is quickly getting worse, including hospital admissions and now at least one known death and probably some which have not yet been identified as Omicron.

 

[andysays]

Nobody can book at the moment because the whole system is borked by massive demand. Likely result of Johnson's 'massive acceleration' will therefore be, um, fewer people getting boosters.

There are still walk-in vaccinations available, but I fear the high demand will discourage some of those who perhaps need the booster the most, and mean that those who are more able to travel further and/or queue for hours will be more likely to get it.

 

[weltweit]

Nobody can book at the moment because the whole system is borked by massive demand. Likely result of Johnson's 'massive acceleration' will therefore be, um, fewer people getting boosters.

For me and my son we didn't book, we just checked the centres we were going to were doing "walk ins" and then just went there and got jabbed.

 

[SpookyFrank]

For me and my son we didn't book, we just checked the centres we were going to were doing "walk ins" and then just went there and got jabbed.

Local walk in centre for us started turning people away at 1pm because they're only open til 5 and the queue was four hours long.

 

[weltweit]

Local walk in centre for us started turning people away at 1pm because they're only open til 5 and the queue was four hours long.

Oh, ok .. we went pre Boris announcement, the queues were much more manageable and we went both of us mid morning.

 

[elbows]

I think that's the point Raheem was making - it's not clear that this particular death is someone who was admitted the day before.

All we really know is that the first known admissions to hospital with Omicron happened yesterday, and the first known death with Omicron happened today, and I suspect they're unlikely to release any more specific info than that, TBH.

But the wider point about which there should be no doubt is that the situation is quickly getting worse, including hospital admissions and now at least one known death and probably some which have not yet been identified as Omicron.

Yes and even when comments to the public about these figures are made in a timely way, the data still isnt always timely and is certainly an incomplete picture.

Plus when it comes to deaths, plenty of them dont happen in hospital. I dont think the NHS England hospital death total has even quite reached 100,000 yet, at least not the version that only includes people in hospital that tested positive.

 

[elbows]

 

[xenon]

There are still walk-in vaccinations available, but I fear the high demand will discourage some of those who perhaps need the booster the most, and mean that those who are more able to travel further and/or queue for hours will be more likely to get it.

The nearest walk in place here is only jabbing people who've had their second jab prior to July. So no garantee you'll get one if you turn up, queueing in the rain.

I'm booked there for 22nd but may try this Friday.

 

[weltweit]

Wondering if there will be any requirement to separate delta and omicron patients in hospital given that delta patients can also get omicron?

 

[Pickman's model]

Wondering if there will be any requirement to separate delta and omicron patients in hospital given that delta patients can also get omicron?

Yeh there is, it's in beta mode at the moment

 

[Riklet]

Wondering if there will be any requirement to separate delta and omicron patients in hospital given that delta patients can also get omicron?

Unlikely. Also, we don't know that's true at all for a start. Especially while already infected. In fact, it's rather unlikely. This seems to be a media misrepresentation of the fact that prior infection with delta provides little protection against omicron and recent covid convalescents in South Africa have caught omicron in significant numbers.

I remember reading that when you are actually infected with a virus you are often highly protected against being ill with another virus at the same time, not sure of the ins and outs of this or evidence however.

 

[elbows]

Regarding South Africas data issues.

 

[kabbes]

Isn't this what I was asking about before?

 

[elbows]

Yeah thats part of the reason why I posted it. Havent always got the time or the will to go back and find and quote the previous strands of the conversation.

 

[weltweit]

With Boris's December booster initiative it seems the UK is taking a strong stance on Omicron and taking some action now - rather than waiting to see the severity of the resulting illness.

What I can't find is other countries taking similar actions.

Anyone spotted other countries taking action?

 

[2hats]

Anyone spotted other countries taking action?

Israel throughout August/September/October.

 

[weltweit]

Israel throughout August/September/October.

Surely they couldn't have known about Omicron back then 2hats?

 

[Yossarian]

With Boris's December booster initiative it seems the UK is taking a strong stance on Omicron and taking some action now - rather than waiting to see the severity of the resulting illness.

What I can't find is other countries taking similar actions.

Anyone spotted other countries taking action?

Booster campaigns are getting stepped up all over the place though Johnson, uncharacteristically, does seem to be acting with more urgency than other leaders - might be connected to his government's heavy reliance on the AstraZeneca shot in the initial vaccination campaign.

 

[teuchter]

With Boris's December booster initiative it seems the UK is taking a strong stance on Omicron and taking some action now - rather than waiting to see the severity of the resulting illness.

What I can't find is other countries taking similar actions.

Anyone spotted other countries taking action?

The UK is not really taking especially strong action as far as I can see.

 

[teuchter]

The South African chap has modified his words a bit but despite the issues with the reported numbers there, he still seems to be confident that they are about to peak (rather than have already peaked).

 

[Raheem]

Booster campaigns are getting stepped up all over the place though Johnson, uncharacteristically, does seem to be acting with more urgency than other leaders - might be connected to his government's heavy reliance on the AstraZeneca shot in the initial vaccination campaign.

Johnson seems to be wanting to present boosters as a response to the wave that is now beginning. A race between the vaccine and the virus, we are told.

But, even if you buy the line that two doses offers really weak protection against omicron but the third somehow makes all the difference, vaccinating everyone in December is really only worthwhile if you're expecting the wave to hit in maybe February (given that they are not really going to get it done by the end of Dec, and there's also two or three weeks for vaccination to take effect).

I think it may well be about doing something as a noisy and expensive alternative to actually doing something.

ETA: Notice how we've heard the rationale for this plan from Johnson and Javid but not, as yet, from a government scientist.

 

[Yossarian]

The South African chap has modified his words a bit but despite the issues with the reported numbers there, he still seems to be confident that they are about to peak (rather than have already peaked).

I wouldn't put too much faith in Streicher's predictions - he's getting quoted widely but he's only Dr. Streicher because he has a PhD in engineering. He's also a member of an anti-lockdown, anti-vaxxer group, and has been incorrectly predicting the peak of the pandemic since at least June 2020.

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[teuchter]

I wouldn't put too much faith in Streicher's predictions - he's getting quoted widely but he's only Dr. Streicher because he has a PhD in engineering. He's also a member of an anti-lockdown, anti-vaxxer group, and has been incorrectly predicting the peak of the pandemic since at least June 2020.

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Thanks, I already had a sense from the way he writes that he might not be entirely reliable, and I am interested to see what happens in SA in the next week or so, and what will happen to his confidently worded tweets if the numbers start to disagree with his predictions.

 

[weltweit]

There are a lot of posts on a google search in South Africa saying Omicron severity is mild as if to say don't worry. But it hasn't infected people long enough to be able to know what the severity is yet. We have to wait a good couple of weeks more until we can see the real evidence.

 

[Yossarian]

Thanks, I already had a sense from the way he writes that he might not be entirely reliable, and I am interested to see what happens in SA in the next week or so, and what will happen to his confidently worded tweets if the numbers start to disagree with his predictions.

There might be a stopped-clock-is-sometimes-right thing going on, but the organisation he's a part of definitely looks like Loon Central, with lots of "masks are bad, ivermectin is good" stuff.

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[2hats]

Surely they couldn't have known about Omicron back then 2hats?

Booster programme was started in response to delta.

 

[elbows]

There are a lot of posts on a google search in South Africa saying Omicron severity is mild as if to say don't worry. But it hasn't infected people long enough to be able to know what the severity is yet. We have to wait a good couple of weeks more until we can see the real evidence.

The BBC is increasingly reporting on the 'mild in South Africa' story this week. Sources referenced by our media continue to include the doctor who made a big point of going on about how mild it is there all throughout their Omicron wave so far, but also at least one other medical professional, and there may also be some actual hospital detail data (eg percentage requiring oxygen).

As time goes on, my main caveat becomes that we need to see what that looks like in the UK context, rather than that not enough time has passed in South Africa to judge. Not that I can rule out other potential distortions of the Soouth Africa picture seen, such as deliberate bullshit and the recent problems with some of their data systems. And I am tending to disregard the death data for this wave in South Africa so far, because it looks to me like South Africa is one of the countries where it is still necessary to use excess death estimates rather than official death numbers, due to various phenomenon leading to large official undercounting.

Personally my instincts are still to rant and rave about the potential recklessness of 'mild in South Africa' stories, but I certainly dont rule out the possibility that this could end up being a mistake on my part, and that such stories were actually valid. I will just have to resist jumping to conclusions at this stage because UK context is quite different in some key respects, so will just have to see what the health realities of Omicron turn out to be in the UK, regardless of what the picture in South Africa actually is. And I dont believe authorities can really rely on the 'mild' stuff when planning a response. Its better to plan for the worst and then be delighted if it turns out we can relax more later on, with the added benefit that if we turn out to have overreacted to this variant, we'll at least have done things as a result that help reduce the ongoing burden from the delta variant during the difficult winter period.

 

[LDC]

The South African chap has modified his words a bit but despite the issues with the reported numbers there, he still seems to be confident that they are about to peak (rather than have already peaked).

Maybe check your sources are OK before posting something like that?

 

[teuchter]

Maybe check your sources are OK before posting something like that?

I don't think there is anything wrong in looking at some of the info that people with a different view are focusing on. As far as I can see he is not presenting falsified data.

 

[elbows]

Early indications that Omicron may affect the value of F, the frequency with which I struggle to resist saying fuck off teuchter.

Yes, at this stage of waves I tend to get a bit more aggressive, my tolerance towards certain forms of wriggling reduces notably.

And yes I sometimes resort to posting stuff I dont agreee with either and then examine and pick at it. In this case I was annoyed that you posted yet another of his tweets because we already had an initial one posted in this thread, and then me posting a follow-up one where he was forced to change some of his analysis because he had previously used data that was blatantly likely to be an incomplete guide at that moment, was bound to be overridden by subsequent data. And since their view on when cases may peak in that region does not seem to have changed across these tweets, I dont see the point in keep sharing subsequent tweets.

If this Omicron wave turns out to really suck then I doubt I will in future be prepared to put up with some of the shit I've had to try and listen to and respond to reasonably throughout much of this year. Instead I will try to build a casde that my position is reasonable, not extreme, and that many who consider their approaach to be balanced and centrist are actually leading us repeatedly into massive waves of disruption and death. At this stage of the pandemic I'd much rather be wrong instead, and right now I do not exclude either possibility so will just have to wait and see.